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Archive for January, 2008

Super Bowl Prediction and Pick Against the Spread

Posted by in NFL Picks on January 28th, 2008 | 1 Comment

It looks like the Giants line is between +11 and +13.  I not taking the game myself because as an Eagles fan, I want the Giants to lose.  I do, however, think that the Giants will cover this Sunday.  I think the Patriots escape with a 10-point victory.  I’m going to go ahead and say that the game will be something like 27-17 or 34-24.  Just like the Chargers, just like the Jaguars, and just like most of the teams that the Patriots faced since the Eagles in week 12, the Giants will be able to hang around before Brady closes the game out in the 4th quarter, which is why the Patriots are 1-7 against the spread in their last 8 games.  Remember, the Giants only lost by 3 the last time these teams played.

There are a few reasons I wouldn’t suggest taking the Patriots spread: Tom Brady says his foot is fine, but others say it contributed to his 3 INTs against the Chargers two weeks ago; Randy Moss has been shut down throughout the playoffs (translates into more short Welker yards that picks up small pieces, but leaves out the big play; that translates into more time off the clock and less chances to cover the 11-13 points); the Giants pass rush has been insane, with Brady on a bum foot, he’ll have trouble escaping any pressure; the Giants, to me, are playing just as inspired, if not more, than the Patriots: even though they won last week, they looked nervous, irritated, and even worn down.

There are a few reason why I would be reluctant if you want to take the Giants: Eli has been great, but he does have the occasional piss-poor game; the …

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AFC & NFC Championship Game Aftermath

Posted by in NFL Highlights on January 21st, 2008 | Comment »

Tough break for those who took the Pack.  If somebody at the beginning of the season would have said Eli and not Peyton Manning would be in the Super Bowl this year, I would have said they should get checked for psychosis because ELI SUCKS (Reference: Hitler’s rant about the Cowboys loss).  What a shocker and what a disappointment for those dreaming of a Brady-Favre Super Bowl.  I don’t want to chear for the Pats in this one, but I’m forced to do so by default even though I HATE the Pats: if the Giants somehow win this thing, as an Eagles fan, it’s going to suck — a lot.

If you missed any of the NFC or AFC Championship games or just want another look at the highlights, here are the quick links to those at NFL.com:

AFC Championship Highlights: Patriots 21 – Chargers 12

NFC Championship Highlights: Giants 23 – Packers 20

I came across this at Sportaphile: AFC/NFC Championship Thoughts.  He kind of calls out LaDanian Tomlinson for not playing.  Here is what he had to say:

Why did Ladainian Tomlinson spend the biggest game of his career sulking on the bench? Deion Sanders expressed my thoughts PERFECTLY during the post game show. L.T. BETTER need surgery on his knee, because if the injury isn’t serious enough to warrant an operation he should have been on the damned field. I have no proof for this claim, but I almost bet he was sitting on the bench crying, thats why he never took his helmet off.

I’m not going to knock L.T. for not playing because he’s L.T.: if he’s able to go, you know he’s going to play.  Here is a …

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Super Bowl line already moves 1.5 points: Betting public likes the Giants

Posted by in NFL Picks on January 21st, 2008 | Comment »

I just posted that the current Super Bowl line is -12.5.  Apparently there has been a lot of movement to the spread.  The line opened at Patriots -14 and a lot of the action came in on the Giants +14, this caused the spread to drop to Patriots -13 and then to where it is now at -12.5.  The spread may go down to -12.  Before I saw the spread, I was going to lean towards picking the Giants spread if they got a bunch of points (13 or more), but I won’t personally take the game myself because as described before (that I’m an Eagles fan), I will be hoping that they lose so I don’t have to hear it from every Giants fan that I know.

Here is what I came across at Vegas Watch:

There was about $90 million wagered in Nevada on the Super Bowl last year, which means there was something like $10 billion bet on it worldwide. That is greater than the GDP of 73 countries.

As expected, Pinnacle set the initial line at New England -14, and the over/under at 55. The early money has clearly been coming in on the Giants, as the line is now down to 13, and could drop to 12.5 in the near future. The Under is getting a lot of action as well, and is currently at 54.

The New England money line is -480, and the Giants are +440, putting the Pats at 81.7% to win. Apparently there is always a lot of action on the underdog’s money line in the Super Bowl, which makes sense, as people look at their momentum, saying they’re a “team of destiny” and such. It’ll be interesting to



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NFC & AFC Championship Predictions & Picks Against the Spread

Posted by in NFL Picks on January 18th, 2008 | Comment »

Sorry for the late update, but lets get down to business.  Here are my predictions for the NFC & AFC Championship games.  I think the best spread to take is the Packers -7.  I would hop on that before it moves to -7.5 because 80% of the action is on the Packers and for several good reason too.  The Patriots spread is too high, so I would stay away from that one.  Also, there is a new poll on the left, so be sure an vote on that.  Here is the analysis of the games:

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP – Sunday, January 20 – 3:00

San Diego Chargers @ New England Patriots -13.5

We all know the Chargers are banged up.  Rivers has a sprained knee and is questionable Sunday.  He’ll most likely sit out of practice, but should be ready to go Sunday.  Tomlinson is also questionable with a hyper-extended knee; however, he has practiced is expected to play.  More importantly, the Chargers might be without Rivers’ favorite target Antonio Gates, who is listed as day-to-day, and the man paving the way for L.T., Lorenzo Neal is also day-to-day.

The action on this game is surprisingly split 50-50, perhaps because the Patriots have covered only 1 of their last 7 games.  The Patriots beat the Chargers 38-14 early in the season, but that was when the Chargers started the season 1-3 and before their 8-game winning streak.  Rivers has been hot lately — a 100.0+ passer rating in 4 of his last 5 games — but with the knee injury, he’ll be losing a lot of mobility and that’s going to hold him back from the performances he’s been having.  In his last game against the Patriots, Rivers went 19/30, 179 …

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Video: Mike Tomlin Coors Light Commercial

Posted by in NFL Videos on January 18th, 2008 | Comment »

Here is a funny video in the standard “Coors Light Press Conference.” This one deals with asking Tomlin about his night at the strip club and Hines Ward’s possible contraction of an STD.



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NFL Divisional Playoff Highlights

Posted by in NFL Highlights on January 14th, 2008 | Comment »

If you missed any of the playoff games this week, or just want to revisit the action, here are the links to the highlights of the games.  Each game came down to the wire, except the Packers routing of the Seahawks after they dug themselves out of a 14-point hole and then dominated the game.

Highlights: Packers 42 – Seahawks 20

Highlights: Patriots 31 – Jaguars 20

Highlights: Chargers 28 – Colts 24

Highlights: Giants 21 – Cowboys 17

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NFL Divisional Playoff Predictions and Picks Against the Spread

Posted by in NFL Picks on January 10th, 2008 | Comment »

Here are my predictions for the Divisional round of the playoffs this weekend.  Last week, my Wild Card playoff picks went 3-1 straight up and 3-1 against the spread.  I opted for the Bucs over the Giants, perhaps giving their defense too much credit. This week the spreads aren’t too favorable to the favorite, so I think taking the points this week may be the way to go.

SATURDAY DIVISIONAL ROUND PLAYOFF SPREADS:

Seattle Seahawks @ Green Bay Packers -9

9 points is too much to give up if you want to take the Packers.  It’s going to be cold and that usually translates into low scoring defensive battles.  Both teams points scored and points allowed are practically identical. Packers are 7-1 at home (6-1-1 against the spread). Seahawks are 3-5 on the road (3-5 against the spread). 64% of the consensus at Covers.com is taking the Seahawks +9 and 5/4 of the “experts” are taking the points too. I’m concerned about the Seahawks 2/11 3rd down conversions against the Redskins.  I’m going to go with the Packers win by 10 because I’m not impressed with the Seahawks and they’re not a good road team, while the Packers, on the other hand, are a dominant home team.  Green Bay’s 11th ranked defense and 2nd ranked offense also gives them an edge over Seattle’s 15th ranked defense and 9th ranked offense.

Prediction – Packers defeat Seahawks 28-17

Packers Moneyline – Confidence 4/5
Packers -9 Spread – Confidence 2/5

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New England Patriots – 13.5

I truly think the Jaguars have a chance to beat the Patriots, although an extremely small chance.  63% of the consensus and 8/11 “experts” at Covers.com say take the points.  I’m going to agree.  Last …

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