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Archive for November, 2008

Week 13 Betting Reaction, Sunday Night Pick

Posted by in NFL Picks on November 30th, 2008 | Comment »

BETTING REACTION:

The individual games that I played (Baltimore, Atlanta, and Indianapolis) went well. I’ll take 2/3 and especially the big money game, the Ravens. The Colts won, but didn’t cover by 1. 1 point away from the 3-for-3 sweep. The Bills and Jets busted up the teaser. The Bills and Jets surprisingly let their home fans down. I’m surprised the Bills lost to a 3-8 team, but Coach Singleterry has that squad more focused each week. They’re not as bad as their record indicates. The 3-team teaser wouldn’t have mattered because the Jets got crushed by the Broncos. I was at looking what to do with my last 3 units and I figured the Ravens were a lock, and I wanted to take two home teams to spread the risk around. I knew I should have put that on the Giants instead! For the day: plus 9 units, minus 7 units, so it’s been a positive day. I knew I found a good spread with the Ravens. Added 4 more units on the Vikings parlay. Moved up 6 units Sunday and 5 units Thanksgiving. Cha-Ching!

TODAY’S BOTTOM LINE: AWAY TEAMS ARE 10-1 TODAY!

To use the words of Dick Vermeil, “that’s something you don’t see every day.”

BEARS @ VIKINGS PICK:

The Vikings line moved from Vikings -3.5 to -4.5, which means the public is betting hard on the Vikings. The Vikings have been ridiculous lately, but the Bears aren’t too shabby. I’m was going to go 2-unit teaser: Vikings +2.5, over 35, but there’s no sense in taking 2.5 points. A 3 unit bet only pays 2.5. I like the Vikings moneyline and over 42 parlay. The Covers.com expert picks heavily favor the over 42 and Vikings covering …

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2009 BCS Bowl Game Possibilities

Posted by in College Football on November 30th, 2008 | 6 Comments

The BCS rankings are out. After giving them a look, this is what I think the Bowl games should be. Oklahoma is just barely ahead of Texas, which means they’ll face Missuouri in the Big 12 Championship. Missouri should get killed by them and Oklahoma will walk their way into the National Championship, to face the SEC Champion, which is between Florida and Alabama.

BSC Championship: Oklahoma vs. Florida

Sugar Bowl: Texas vs. Alabama

Rose Bowl: USC vs. Penn State

Fiesta Bowl: Texas Tech vs. Utah

Orange Bowl: What’s the deal with the Orange Bowl, is it usually ACC vs. Big East or just the next two BCS teams? OK, Ohio State vs. Boise State.

Let’s hope that’s how things shake out.…

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Week 13 Live Game Notes

Posted by in NFL General on November 30th, 2008 | Comment »

RAVENS: The Ravens take an early 6-0 lead, but it should be 10-0. They took the ball down to the 2, but had to settle for 3 instead of 7. Another 3 and out for the Bengals. It looks like we should be seeing a lot of those throughout the day. Allright, the Ravens finally put up 7. Take the 13-0 lead. This one goes into the half at 13-3. Fitzpatrick had a nice scramble and later connected to Houshmandzadeh for a 47-yard grab. Bengals threatened inside the redzone, but had to settle for 3. Raven TD. Derrick Mason delivers. 20-3. Mark Clayton goes yard, 70 yards to the house. 27-3. That’s what I’m talking about! I knew this one would be this week’s lock! Ravens win 34-3.

BILLS: The Bills, who I have in a pick ’em teaser (with NYJ and BAL), had a 2nd and goal from the 2-yard line, but couldn’t get it in and missed a 19-yard FG! That would have tied it at 7, but now they’re still battling to get that TD back. This one goes into the half San Fran up 10-0. Bills take it to the 3 again, but settle for 3. Bills trail 10-3.

COLTS: Addai gave up a fumble on the Colts first drive, which led to 3. The Colts answered back with a FG, the Browns managed another 3 and the Colts responded with a by taking it inside the redzone. They take it to the 1 and it’s 4th and 1. This is just the theme of the day, isn’t it? Manning snuck it in! Finally got a break. No wait! Manning lost the ball, the Browns recovered. This is just ridiculous! The refs said …

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NFL Week 13 Picks and Predictions Against the Spread

Posted by in NFL Picks on November 30th, 2008 | 4 Comments

BALTIMORE RAVENS -7 @ CINCINNATI BENGALS (PERSONAL FAVORITE)

The Ravens defense should make the Bengals look like a high school team. I expect a minimum of 3 turnovers to be forced by that Ravens defense. The Bengals injury list is about a mile long and includes T.J. Houshmandzadeh (Probable), S Chinedum Ndukwe (Doubtful), DE Antwan Odom (Doubtful), Chad Johnson (Probable), Carson Palmer (Out Indefinitely). However, the Ravens injury list is pretty long too and unfortunately includes Chris McAllister (IR), Sammarri Rolle (Questionable), Le’Ron McClain (Probable), and Derrick Mason (Probable).

I say that the Ravens defense dominates, holds the Bengals to under 6 and the Ravens coast to about 24 points (Bengals give up an average of 25 PPG) to cover in comfortable fashion. Out of all the games I previewed so far, this is the one I love most since it’s the most one-sided. The Bengals have the league’s worst offense against a tough Ravens D. The Bengals should not get more than 13 points and the Ravens should be due for at least 20 seeing as the Bengals give up an average of 25. I’m putting 6 units on the Ravens.

* I may just be in love with this game because my logic is saying if the Eagles tie the Bengals and the Ravens kills the Eagles, the Ravens must kill the Bengals.

DENVER BRONCOS @ NEW YORK JETS -8

This is a bad spread to taker regardless of which team you take. I say Jets win by 7-10. I like the Jets offense to score in bunches, but the Broncos can keep pace, but the Jets defense is tough. I’m leaning more towards a Jets cover and I do see them dominating this game, but the 8 …

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Thanksgiving Day Football Picks

Posted by in NFL Picks on November 27th, 2008 | 3 Comments

Happy Thanksgiving everyone. 3 football games today. None are too intriguing, but let’s see if any games are worth betting on.

TENNESSEE TITANS -11.5 @ DETROIT LIONS

Merell Hodge predicted 31-3 as the final score in this one. The Lions went blow for blow with the Panthers and followed that up by blowing a 17-0 lead to the Bucs, losing 38-20. Assuming Calvin Johnson can pull 2 TDs out of his bag of tricks, the Titans will need more than 24 to cover. The Lions are terrible against the run (ranked 32nd) and that’s what the Titans do best (ranked 9th). I like the Titans to win big. I bought the line to Titans -10 just so they don’t need that extra score. Jeff Fisher will get his team focused after that demoralizing loss to the Jets and I expect the Titans to come out motivated to kick some ass.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ DALLAS COWBOYS -12

The Cowboys offense is back. Terrell Owens has been unleashed. I think the Cowboys win by 2 TDs. The Cowboys should be good for at least 28 points and their defense has been stingy, they should hold the Seahawks to under 14.

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -3

After the Eagles debacles the last two weeks, I can’t recommend taking the Eagles even as an Eagles fan. The Eagles are dead to me. The defense is there, but they have no running game, the offensive line is playing poorly, and they’re forced to throw 80% of the time, which has resulted in tons of turnovers. Hopefully I can witness an Eagles win for the first time in 4 weeks, but the Cardinals make me nervous.…

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THE STREAK (system from last week continued)

Posted by in NFL General on November 25th, 2008 | 2 Comments

Well we had some good wins last week and few that were very disappointing, but remember the goal is to find a long winning streak. This week we will play all the teams that won and/or covered from last week and add a few more games. If you follow the wagering amount I outlined last week you would be wagering $38.50 to win $35 on all the following games:

1. Mississippi State at Mississippi (-14) MIS 45 MISS ST 0 WIN

2. Miami at NC State (+1.5) NCST 38 MIA 28 WIN

3. UAB (+9) at Central Florida UAB 15 UCF 0 WIN

4. Maryland at Boston College (-7) BC 28 MARY 21 PUSH

and Bet $27.50 for the following:

5. Florida (-16) at Florida State UF 45 FSU 15 WIN

6. UTEP (+5.5) at ECU ECU 53 UTEP 21 LOSS

7. Kent State at Buffalo (-9.5) KST 24 BUFF 21 LOSS

8. Syracuse at Cincinnati (-22) CIN 30 SYR 10 LOSS

9. South Carolina at Clemson (-1.5) CLEM 31 SC 14 WIN 

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MNF Preview: Packers @ Saints Pick Against the Spread

Posted by in NFL Picks on November 24th, 2008 | 1 Comment

Monday Night Football finally has a good matchup for the first time in about 3-4 weeks. I already placed a nice parlay of Colts and Packers, which pays 4:1 and the Colts already delivered the big win last night against the Chargers. If the Pack can win tonight, it will be another solid week for me. The line opened at Packers +2.5, but moved to a pick ’em game, which indicates that the betting public is riding the Packers tonight. Good news for the Packers: Reggie Bush will be out tonight. Bad news for the Packers: The Saints will be jacked up to return home for the first time in 5 weeks.

Despite the Packers being on the road, I like them to win this one, in what should be a tight game that sees a lot of points. Both offenses can score with the best of them, but the Packers defense is way ahead of the Saints defense. With that defensive edge, I expect the Packers to come out with a win in the Super Dome. Both teams average 27 points of offense per game, but the Saints are allowing 4 more points per game. Both teams are 5-5, but the Packers have been better against the spread, going 7-3 compared to the Saints 5-4.

Worried about that Saints passing attack? Green Bay is ranked 3rd against the pass, allowing just 176 yards per game.

I already have 5 units riding on the Packers on a 1-unit bet (2-team parlay with the Colts), but I may put another 2 units on them. I like the Packers tonight!

Reaction: Damn! 6/8 of ESPN’s announcers liked the Packers. It was a hell of a first half and it looked like a …

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