Archive for December, 2008

I really like the Packers -2.5 over the Jaguars this week, but they’ve been a poor team to bet on lately, but so have the Jags.  The Jags will be without their best corner and the Packers have a pretty good WR in Greg Jennings, who should explode this game (count on 100+ yards from Jennings).  I’m taking this one just because the Jaguars offense is basically non-existent.  I think this is the most one-sided game this week.  The Jags are 1-5 at home, so that home-field advantage isn’t really working for them.

The next game that I have on tap is the Titans -3 over Texans.  Brandon likes the Texans +3 and they have been playing very well the last 2 weeks and they’ll be at home. The Titans already have the division locked up, so they may slack this game, but they’re still fighting for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs and Jeff Fisher knows just how important it is to lock that up and you’re facing the Texans, who have a poor run defense and give up a lot of points.  I’ll keep riding the Titans, but the -3 line does show you the confidence the bookies have in the Texans in this one.  I’ll have it on upset alert, but the Titans D will keep that high-scoring Texans offense in check.

My next play is the Patriots -6.5 over the Raiders.  The Raiders are garbage:  3-10,  1-5 at home, averaging 13.8 PPG.  I also think Randy Moss will show up big against his former team.  I always love when big-time players are playing their former team.  This one has 13/14 experts at covers.com picking the Pats, but they were all over Patriots -4.5 over the Seahawks last …

1. San Fran v Miami under 41.5: over the last three these teams are both are scoring less than 20 points per game and giving up less than twenty. both have gone under the posted in their last two.

2. San Diego at KC (+6): KC is rolling right now in the cover department. They have covered 5 of 7 and their last two as they had the potential to pull the upset last week at Denver. Plus you can factor in the west to east coast 1:00 game that has killed the west coast teams and weather may be a factor as it should be pretty cold which I don’t believe will favor SD.

3. Green Bay v Jacksonville under 46

4. Tennessee v Houston (+3)

5. Tennessee v Houston over 45

6. Denver at Carolina (-7.5)

Good Luck .…

I just took a quick look at the spreads this week in the NFL.  So far I like the Packers -1.5 over the Jaguars.  The Packers have been dissappointing lately, but they’re not a bad team.  They’re just barely getting beat.  The Jags have been great to bet against (3-10 ATS).  They’re also a dismal 1-5 at home.  Green Bay averages 8 more points per game than the Jaguars.  GB is 7-2 ATS against a team with a losing record in their last 9.   The Jags are 1-12 ATS in their last 13 on grass.  Although Green Bay has lost and hasn’t covered in their last 3, the Jaguars have lost and haven’t covered in their last 4.  The Jags will be without there best corner, so count on Greg Jennings to have a field day.  The loss of LB Nick Barnett has hurt that Packers D, but the Jags haven’t proven anything offensively other than the fact that that they’ll be lucky to score more than 14 points.  With CB Mathis out for the Jags, I really like the Packers in this one, especially since it’s basically a pick ’em at -1.5.

Pittsburgh and the Ravens clash in Baltimore.  The over/under is 34.5.  The Ravens have allowed 6.67 PPG in their last 3.  Pittburgh has allowed 11 PPG in their last 4.  This one should be a 13-10 game barring any INTs returned for TDs.  This one shouldn’t break 20-14, so I like the under.  However, the last time these teams played, everyone was all over the under, but the over actually hit.  That’s because Flacco fumbled, which led to a TD.  However, Flacco has learned quickly as a rookie and is doing a much better job at protecting …

After all was said and done, I came out dead even this week.  That’s OK though since the Ravens and Rutgers built up the bank roll last week.  Most of my picks were right on the money, but I took the wrong games.  My big game (the Pats) pushed, I lost on the Jets, but won on the Bears. 1-1-1, I’ll take it.  I put small bets on the Steelers, Ravens, and Vikings, so I won 2/3 there.  Let’s look at tonight’s game.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS -3

Tonight is a great NFL game for NFC South supremacy.  Both teams are 9-3.  The Panthers are a perfect 6-0 at home.  The Bucs are 3-3 on the road.  The Bucs stomped all over the Panthers in Tampa Bay earlier this season winning by a score of 27-3.  I can’t really make sense of this one.  Both teams are known for their tight defenses.  Tampa allows 20 PPG on the road while the Panthers allow 17 PPG at home.  Both offenses score an average of 23 for their respective home/away stats.  What’s alarming about the Panthers is their 33 PPG allowed in their last 3 and they’re 1-2 ATS in their last 3 (GB, ATL, DET).  Neither team has a clear edge, but the Panthers do have the home-field advantage on Monday Night.

I still don’t know what to do with this one.  I may do another one of my teasers.  With the solid defenses of each team, each team should be limited to around 17-23 points.  The over/under is 39.  You can tease this up to 46 to take the under or tease it down to 32 and take the over.  Both teams are 5-7 against the over.  You …

WEEK 14 BETTING REACTION:

The Bears cashed in 3 units on the 1:00 game.  I had a 6-team parlay that the Packers busted when they lost on a last second field goal at home to the Texans.  I hit the Titans, Bears, and Saints/Falcons over, and then have Jets -4 and Patriots -4.5 coming up, so we’ll see how those go.  I decided to make a last second bet on the Vikings -10.  They won by only 4.  I should have opted for the Titans or Colts, but didn’t like the 14 or 13.5 spreads.  I’m still in the black and have some big 4:00 games coming up.

To make up for the Vikings pick, I put 2 units on the Steelers -4.  I did this right after I heard that Marion Barber was out for the Cowboys.  It’s in Pittsburgh, it’s cold, and the Cowboys don’t really have anything in their backfield, so they’ll struggle in Pittsburgh in the cold.  In fact, Romo started the game off by throwing a pick to Polamalu.  It should be a close game, but I’ll take the Steelers at home in the cold.  Dallas is up 13-6, but Steelers are threatening with 3:17 left.  Pittsburgh ties it up, but the chances of covering 4 are slim.  Scratch that, Romo throws a pick 6!  Thank you Romo for stepping up when I need you too.  Pittsburgh wins this one 20-13.

My big game of the week (Patriots -3) pushed.  I’m certainly glad I took the line at -3.  I knew I was onto something with the Bears and Titans.  I played the Jets, which was the wrong game to play.  I thought they would return to their winning ways, but they’ve now suffered two …

1:00 GAMES

— CHI/JAC: Bears get an early TD after a Jacksonville interception turned Bears fumble, turned Bears ball at the 2 after the review.  Bears are back in the money 10-3.  Bears settle for a FG in the redzone to extend the lead 13-3.  Bears take a 20-3 lead.  Boo ya!  Jacksonville makes it a 20-10 game with 12 minutes left. 23-13 Bears – they can give up a FG now.

— IND/CIN: Colts jump to 7-0 lead at the end of the 1st quarter.  14-3.  28-3.  They should cover the 13.5 comfortably.  35-3 is your final.

— GB/HOU: I have the Packers in a 5-team parlay, so I’m keeping my eye on them.  The Texans started with a deep ball to Kevin Walter.  And I benched him to take Donal Driver since I expected the Texans to give up a lot through the air.  Packers still trail 7-0, but Packers come up with a huge INT.  Tie ballgame.  Houston gets a FG and the Packers returned the following kickoff, which came back for a penalty.  Houston ends the half with a missed FG to go into the half 10-7. Slaton has been killing the Packers on 3rd down all day, they finally stop him, and then Texans punter scrambles for a 1st down.  Texans hanging onto a 13-7 lead with 20 minutes left.  Packers would need 2 TDs to cover.  This one looks like it’s going to the Texans.  Packers come up with a huge fumble recovery.  They still have a chance.  Greg Jennings goes deep!  80+ yards to set up a 1st and goal.  Packers take a 14-13 lead.  Houston now up 21-14 with 10 minutes to play.  Tied at 21!  Texans win with a last second …

College football was great this week as I went 9-4 with the streak.

Let’s carry that streak through to Sunday.

1. Philadelphia at NY Giants (-6.5): how can you go against a team playing this well? I can’t.

2. Minnesota at Detroit over 45.5

3. Kansas City (+9) at Denver

4. Miami at Buffalo under 42

Good Luck!…