Comments on: NFL Week 10 Predictions, Picks Against the Spread

By: Vegas Martin

Vegas Martin — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 01:18:52 +0000

Hater in the house. Last week was a tough week and almost everyone, professional handicapper or not, did poorly last week. In fact, only 2 out of 20 people in our pick ‘em league were above .500 following the 4:00 games.

I am not a professional handicapper, nor do I pretend to me. I just enjoy writing about the NFL games and like to provide a weekly analysis on each game to help people make their decisions.

Picks are posted by Tuesday or Wednesday, so I don’t know what you’re talking about with looking at handicappers and tweaking picks. I don’t look up other handicappers, but I do like to see what the “experts” at Covers.com are up to, and often talk about about it in my picks to give other people an idea of the particular strength of a specific game. For instance, I’ll mention that 8/9 experts are picking this team so people know that’s who the handicappers heavily favor and that’s very useful information.

I don’t know what you mean by “spinning games.” My Ravens and Patriots picks were posted 5 days before those games kicked off. Nor do I mislead anyone. I provide data, stats, records against the spread, injuries, etc. in order to compile information from several sources, so it gives people a quick resource to look at to pick games.

I’ll again reiterate that I have a 14-4 record against the spread for my top picks in the past 3 weeks, so even in a 3-5 week (and my personal plays form last week were 3-3), that’s still a 17-9 (65.38%) record, and I’ll take that type of percentage any season.

This is a free resource and you’re free to ignore it if you choose to.

By: Vegas Martin

Vegas Martin — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 00:37:57 +0000

The reason I take so long to post my picks…is the same reason I went 5-10 last week.

I’m afraid to make difficult decisions, so I wait to see what real “Handicappers” do, then, instead of following their LEAD, I like to pretend that I’m smarter than they are, and I begin tweaking their picks so as “all of you readers” will think I know how to pick ‘him.

I’m like Michael Jackson…I don’t know when to stop and leave well-enough alone!

When I only get 33% correct, I feel the need to “Spin-it” (like a Monday Morning Quarterback) just to convince my ego…because I sure as hell cannot mislead YOU readers.

So, there it is… MY CONFESSION.

By: Vegas Martin

Vegas Martin — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 16:19:59 +0000

Picks will be up by the end of the day. We will rebound. Keep in mind our top 8 picks were 3-5 and the Denver loss was solely due to an injury, which you cannot forecast. That would have resulted in a .500 week.

Just take a look at the past 3 weeks from me. Top Picks: 4-1, 4-2, and 6-1 respectively. 14-4 (77.77%). How about that kind of record?

By: anonymous

anonymous — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 15:59:51 +0000

Put up your picks. Let’s see if you can rebound from your (33%) 5-10 Week-10.

Good luck this week.

By: allen

allen — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 07:18:34 +0000

oh update…. i posted that sob story before i realized i hit with the ravens and the pats too… sorrry…. but still… bad week

By: Tambo

Tambo — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 03:51:28 +0000

Haha ok, thank you, I do appreciate the advice and your insight on the games. Its just seems so easy when our (yours and my my) top picks seem like for sure winners.. I actually did win a 5 game parlay back in week 7. However, these upsets the past few weeks are hurting me. Makes it almost impssible for me to win because its unpredictable right now I and I have to get all picks in my parlay correct.

By: Vegas Martin

Vegas Martin — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 16:54:04 +0000

Ahhh a Canadian. I’ve heard about the Proline. You’re not going to hit many 5-team parlays, especially not in the NFL. We did have our top 6 picks go 6-0 one week a few weeks back and 1 of our readers actually did parlay all 6 teams to win a few grand. However, the chances of that repeating are very slim. The odds to win a 5-team parlay are 25-to-1, so for every 25 parlays that you play, you’re supposed to win only once. It requires a tremendous amount of luck to hit a 5-teamer. We do our best to find winners on the site. We found 2 back-to-back winners in the Sunday and Monday night games and I’ll continue to do my best to give you quality advice so you can make quality picks, but you have to understand that the odds are stacked against you on those Proline tickets. Good luck.

By: Tambo

Tambo — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 16:46:45 +0000

Hey Vegas Martin, Ive been reffering to this site for the past few weeks to make my picks but im playin Proline/Pointspread so Ive been gettin killed with all these upsets haha, Ive been trying to get 5 sure picks, and I was hopin you could help me out next week. I keep gettin screwed over by our top picks so I dont even know what to do anymore cuz i need to get the whole ticket right to win..

By: Vegas Martin

Vegas Martin — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 05:04:02 +0000

You didn’t go with the Patriots +3 or Ravens -10.5? C’mon buddy. This was the back-to-back rebound that you needed.

By: allen

allen — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 04:47:47 +0000

omg…. i lost every game this week except the titans … F Me