SMART BET COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 11
Posted by Brandon Phillips in College Football Picks on November 10th, 2009 | 8 CommentsOverall Profit 3.9 units (updated 11/11)
We start the week early again with a game on Tuesday night. We hit last Tuesday with Bowling Green over Buffalo, so lets keep our strong Tuesday night plays rolling.
1) Ohio at Buffalo (-1.5) This Buffalo team plays hard every single time they take the field. Ohio was a great play early in the season, but are simply not playing the type of ball they once were. Ohio faces an angry Buffalo squad after their loss from a week ago to Bowling Green. Ohio has also been plagued by the injury bug and are probably looking at starting their 3rd string QB tonight. If Buffalo can establish the run this game will be over at halftime. Lay the points with Buffalo.
Ohio 27 Buffalo 24 L for 1.1 units
GAME OF THE YEAR #3: FRESNO STATE (+7) at Nevada for 2 units
This line simply blows me away. I have Fresno State as a 9 point favorite!! Strength of schedule alone makes Fresno State a strong play. Just look at who Fresno State has played and how they faired in those games: on the road in Wisconsin lose in the final seconds, lose at home in a competitive match with Boise State, play Cincinnati tough to the final quarter, and then have won 5 straight, including three road wins. Nevada also post three early loses, but against teams not nearly as strong as what Fresno faced: blowout loss on the road to Notre Dame, a terrible loss to Colorado State on the road (who by the way has lost 7 straight games, including a loss to UNLV, who Nevada beat by 35), and a loss at home to a weak Missouri squad. Both teams will get up and down the field and should score a ton of points. However, as Nevada has stepped up in class they have proven not to be the same squad they are against weaker opponents. Fresno State is a talented squad that can win this game outright. I see this game being close, but Fresno wins 54-42.
3) Fresno State (+245) at Nevada MONEYLINE. OUTRIGHT DOG WINNER!
4) Bowling Green (-3) at Miami (OH) for 1 unit
Bowling Green 35 Miami (OH) 14 W for 1 unit
5) South Florida (+2.5) at Rutgers for 1 unit
Rutgers 31 South Florida 0 L for 1.1 units
6) WVU at Cincinnati (-9) for 1 unit
7) Florida State (+5) at Wake Forest for 1 unit
8) Clemson (-8) at NC State for 1 unit
9) Arizona (+3) at California for 1 unit
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i thought USF was favored ? just checkin.
Steve,
No. I think they should be favored as well. That is why I am gladly taking the points here with USF.
Good Luck.
any thoughts on 2 nites games?
Steve,
Sorry about the late posting, but I am on Cincinnati tonight -9 for 1 unit.
I’m glad we’re on the same page with the Cincinnati pick. I posted a LONG preview for the game to get some more Google traffic to the site and boost the readership.
Don’t forget to sign up for THE PASS RUSH pick ‘em league on Yahoo!
Ouch the Fresno st. game burns like the morning after. Needed some salve. and tried the ONETIMER NHL site, went with the last game of the nite, and that was a crash and burn also. You have any tips on how to not spiral out of control.
First, never put too much money on a single game since there is no such thing as a lock. You need to have a moderate and consistent approach to sports betting. Brandon uses a 1 or 2 unit system and it’s worked well for him. Do not go “all in” with a single game. That’s how you get hurt.
Second, never play catch up with the NHL. The NHL is more difficulty to bet on than the NFL since due to the long season, a team’s performance an any particular night can’t always be predicted with tremendous accuracy. You’re also subject to shootouts, which makes it the equivalent of tossing a coin. The NHL picks were ranked by strength, and I usually stick to my top 3, but I got cute and thought I would get 4/5 winners. The Avs just sucked, I’m stunned by the Flyers loss, and the Lightning were just victims of a shootout. Hang in there — we’ve had a hell of a season in the NFL, college football, and college basketball.
Thanks VM, some real good tips. Keep up the good work. This site has become the new daily must check.