Archive for November, 2009

We had a solid amazing Thursday, we had a solid incredible Friday, and now we’re turning to see what’s on tap tomorrow.  I like UCONN -13.5 tomorrow, but another game that is jumping out to me is Georgia vs. Georgia Tech -7.5.

WEEKLY RECAP: Hit 3 teasers on Thursday (GB/UNDER, DAL/UNDER, GB/DAL), hit Brandon’s Thanksgiving Special (Texas A&M +21), hit Rutgers -3 at 11:00, hit Brandon’s Game of the Year #4 at 2:30 (Auburn +10), hit 7:00 teaser (PITT +7/UNDER), and now looking to add another W with Boise State -6.5, over 63 at 10:00. I’m 7-0 in my last 7 games since Thanksgiving.  Seven and O! The teasers have been working like a charm.

I just can’t get enough football during the long Thanksgiving weekend. Can you tell with the full write ups?

GEORGIA BULLDOGS @ GEORGIA TECH BULLDOGS -7.5

I’ve been eying up this game all week and Georgia Tech -7.5 is just screaming out at me. Why do I like Georgia Tech so much? Their QB Josh Nesbitt is probably the best running QB in the NCAA right now with 1,418 passing yards, 8 passing TDs, 847 rushing yards, and 14 TDs. GT is also 7-1 ATS in their last 8 game and I’ve been riding them throughout that streak.

GT (7-1) is facing a 5-4 Georgia team that averages 27.5 PPG and allows 26.6 PPG, compared to GT’s 36 PPG and 23.5 PPG allowed.  GT’s offense averages just about 100 more yards of offense per game.  Although Georgia just gives up an average of 327 yards per game overall, they’ve been awful on the road, surrendering 390 yards per game and 30 PPG. I like Georgia Tech in this one since Georgia will give up a …

Not only was Thursday a hell of a day, but we’ve gotten off to a great start again today.  We started off at 11:00 with a Rutgers pick that set the table for the rest of the day.  Rutgers cruised over Louisville 34-13 and we only had to give up 3 points.  I hope you capitalized off that pick. STAMP!

Then Brandon’s Game of the Year #4 hit, boosting his “game of the year” record to 3-1.  I was stunned myself when I saw that as his game of the year, but he gave me a hell of an explanation, so I didn’t second guess his judgment and jumped on Auburn +10 parlayed with the under in that game, which pushed, but I still got to take down the Auburn +10.  After the 11:00 game, we hit the 2:30 game. STAMP!

At the 7:00 spot we have Pittsburgh at WVU.  I’m making a small play on a teaser of Pitt +7 and the Under 55.  I’m expecting a tight defensive game.  I don’t want to make it too big with Pitt on the road, but I think they come out on top in this one.  STAMP!

Following the 7:00 game, we have Boise State and Nevada kicking off at 10:00.  Let’s get to the pick.

NEVADA WOLFPACK @ BOISE STATE BRONCOS -13.5

The over/under for this one is set at 70, so like any Boise State game, expect to see a lot of scoring. Boise averaged 44 PPG, while Nevada averages 41 PPG. Boise State gives up 17.3 PPG, while Nevada gives up 25.6 PPG.

Nevada’s offense has been utterly ridiculous all season long. They’re averaging 534 yards per game, more than 70 yards per game than Boise’s average of …

PITTSBURGH PANTHERS @ WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS

Tonight we are treated to the Backyard Brawl at 7:00 on ESPN.  Pittsburgh seeks to get their 10th win of the season and secure a spot in a BCS Standings if they are able to get a win.  A lot of people like the Panthers in this one due to the low spread and I think that is the play to make in this one, but I’m always hesitant to bet on the road team in a big rivalry game.  That’s mostly because I attended this game in 2003 when WVU waxed Pitt 54-31.  2003 was a long time ago though!  Pittsburgh has won this battle the last two years.  Last year they won the game in Pittsburgh 19-15 and the year before that Pitt won 13-9 when it was played in West Virginia.  That is probably why so many people like the under 48.5 in this game.

Both teams bread and butter is their running game.  That is how they win football games.  However, on the other side of the ball, each of these team’s strength is their rushing defense.  Due to that factor, I think you’ll see a lot of stops on third down, which will lead to more punting and less scoring, which makes the under 48.5 looks like the play to make there.  Both of these teams can score though.  Pitt averages 33.8 PPG and WVU averages 27.6 PPG, which is why you’re seeing a high over/under for this game.  The defenses allow a combined 38.2 points though.  Pitts gives up an average of 17.6 PPG, while WVU gives up an average of 21.2.  Each of these teams’ last two games have gone under.  6/9 of Pitt’s games have …

RUTGERS SCARLETT KNIGHTS -3 @ LOUISVILLE CARDINALS

We start football today at 11:00 and the game that I’ve been eying up all week is Rutgers -3. The spread is so low, it made me question whether this is a trap game. The spread is low because their stud WR Tim Brown is questionable and their kicker is also out (could affect some field goals and field position, which is kind of a big deal).

Rutgers also lost last week to a weak Syracuse team 31-13. As Lucky Lester likes to point out, the theme of the year is that solid teams usually bounce back after a poor performance.  I have faith in Tom Savage and that Rutgers running attack against a 4-7 team that gives up an average of 25.5 PPG and scores just 18.5 PPG.

Rutgers blanked South Florida 31-0 prior to the Syracuse loss, they beat a solid UCONN team, they beat up on Maryland, and they hung in their with #10 Pittsburgh.  Louisville isn’t even close to good.  They haven’t beaten any quality teams and their sole division win comes by a 10-9 victory over Syracuse. The Louisville D has a hard time stopping anyone.  They gave up 34 to South Florida, 41 to Cincinnatti, 35 to Pittsburgh, and 38 to UCONN.  Their offense hasn’t really shown up either.

If WR Tim Brown is out, I expect this one to be fairly close throughout the game, but I’m on board with Rutgers.  I would bank on a rebound by Rutgers and I look to take advantage of a low spread.

Prediction: Rutgers 24 – Louisville 17

Free Pick: Rutgers -3 (Confidence: 2.5/5) (W)…

Happy Thanksgiving Everyone!

We hope we made your Thanksgiving just a little bit better with some big Turkey Day wins.

We gave out two THANKSGIVING SPECIALS that both hit. The first special was a 7-point teaser of Packers -3.5 and Cowboys -6.5, which hit with ease. We also won both of those games individually with teasers we gave out that had the spread coupled with the over/under.  The Packers -3.5 hit with the Over 40.5 and Under 54.5, which I flip-flopped on due to the uncertainty of Calvin Johnson’s status — I recommended the over 40.5 if Johnson was active, but under 54.5 if he was inactive.  In the end, it didn’t matter since the total was right in the middle at 46.  I also recommended Cowboys -6.5 (or Raiders +20.5) with the under 47.5.  That was another easy hit no matter which side you decided to play it from.

If you instead played the spreads straight up, there were no worries there as both the Packers and Cowboys got the easy cover, although I was worried after GB fumbled the first kickoff of the game that led to a quick 7 points by the Lions.

I actually played those games with a 4-way teaser (2-to-1 odds) with GB -3.5, DAL -6.5, and unders on both games, so I was pretty pumped about that!

Hopefully, you took notice of last night’s update on the Broncos vs. Giants game.  I was onboard with the Giants, but put a “buyer beware” notice to avoid the Giants game due a feeling that the Broncos are “due for a win” along with the road trip, on a short week, with a list of injuries that I didn’t feel very good about.

Secondly, if you …

Overall Profit 1.3 units

Back on track last week, going 3-2 for 0.8 units of profit. Really like a few games this week, starting with play on Tuesday night. I am also releasing my fourth play of the year this week on Auburn.

1.) Ball State at Western Michigan (-7) FIRST HALF for 1 unit. L for 1.1 units

2.) GAME OF THE YEAR RELEASE #4: Alabama at Auburn (+10.5) for 2 units.  There are more than several reasons to love Auburn in this spot besides the fact that I am saying they will cover. First, one of the best bets so far this year in both college and the nfl is home dogs off a bye week. Auburn has been a totally different ball club at home this year. They are 6-1 straight up and 4-2 ATS at home this year. Their defense has not been the Auburn defense of old, but this Bama squad’s offense is poor. They have looked good against very weak teams, but not very good against average defenses. If there was ever a good spot for this Auburn defense to shine it would be here. This also sets up as a trap game for Alabama. Everyone is assuming they are playing Florida in the SEC Championship game to determine who plays for the National Title. Therefore, this is any easy look-ahead game for Bama. I really like this spot for Auburn and think they have a legitimate shot to pull the upset. Game of the Year Winner #3. W for 2 units. (I am 3-1 on GOY releases!)

3.) THANKSGIVING SPECIAL: Texas at Texas A&M (+21) for 1 unit. W for 1 unit.

4.) North Carolina at NC State (+6.5) for 1 unit. …

Back-to-back-to-back-to-back SUNDAY & MONDAY NIGHT winners. Yes I will boast about a 4-0 record in the past 2 weeks in the prime-time games. Even after bad starts and let’s be honest here, 5-8 in the last two week for the top picks is not what I’m shooting for, but we kept you in the game and hopefully made up some ground with our prime-time picks.

All it would have taken is 2 games to go our way to post a winning record and I will throw out 2 injuries to “justify” or “excuse” my poor record: QB Kyle Orton’s injury last week, which cost us the game against the Redskins and QB Kurt Warner’s injury when the Cardinals were beating the Rams 21-3, but then failed to cover by a mere point when Leinart scored 0 2nd-half points.  I will also consider the Steelers loss complete BS due to “luck.”

However, all was not melancholy in the end! We picked the Eagles and Titans and got two big wins after a less than ideal start to our Sunday.  We did it the previous week with the Patriots/Ravens double-whammy and we did it again this week.

We’ve battled back and made up a ton of ground going into Week 12.

Why do the statistical analysis when a kickoff return, a turnover, or even a crucial penalty call will determine the outcomes of at least 67% of these games against the spread. Let’s just roll with it from the gut.  So now I give you a more condensed version of our weekly picks without all the garbage and some “fearless” predictions.  I also throw out about a half-dozen teasers that I like more than the actual spreads.

IT’S TEASER WEEKEND!

GREEN BAY …