Archive for December, 2010

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We’re finally back to posting normal updates for the games. Last night I posted my picks for the 1:00 games and now we’ll look to see what’s on the menu at 4:00.

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-9)

You are well aware that I’ve been riding the Saints since about week 8 on the theory that they would turn on the jets in the second half of the season. I was able to books wins on them with their wins over Carolina and Seattle ATS. However, despite winning their last two games, they just couldn’t get over the spread. They topped the Cowboys 30-27 on Thanksgiving. With the line at -4, it was a tough loss, especially since they jumped out to a 17-0 lead and took the game 20-6 into the half. The Cowboys battled back in the second half to get the cover. I then liked them against Cincinnati -6.5. Same story that game. Saints took a 13-6 lead into the half and jumped to a 20-12 lead after the 3rd until all hell broke loose in the 4th quarter and the game ended 34-30. The Rams have been a phonemal team to bet on this year and I have played them a few times over the last few weeks. Although they’re 7-5, they are a ridiculous 9-3 ATS. I like teams that are .750 ATS. The Saints have a losing record ATS at 5-7. I will take the points here, although the Saints will win this one at home. I say they win by 7 or 8. They’ll score a lot of points, but …

We’re nearing the end of the season as the cold weather hits us. Screw you Florida and California people. Apologies for the lack of full updates the past few weeks. If you were wondering why I’ve been MIA, there’s two reasons. I started a business recently which recently has “blown up” and I got engaged. Double whammy in such a short period of time. Things have been crazy work-wise but awesome. I’m going to do my best to produce a solid report. In order to break things up, I’ll post my 1:00 plays and try to get 4:00 done tomorrow. Looks like the Colts were an easy play tonight against a team on a 5-game losing streak. Let’s take a look at the Sunday games.

ATLANTA FALCONS (-7.5) @ CAROLINA PANTHERS

I’ve been riding the Falcons this season and very pleased with the results (8-4 ATS). I also love betting against the Panthers (3-9 ATS). I was about to write -9.5 as the spread without looking at the line. Therefore, some slight value in this play, especially if you can buy a half-point. Like all of the Panthers games, it should be a rout. 10-2 vs. 1-11 and just 7.5 points? Panthers season average is 12.8 PPG while their D gives up 25. With a line like this, you have to think, okay, whose injured? Tony Gonzalez is probable with a banged up ankle. No big deal (NBD). Falcons roll here.

Prediction: Falcons 31 – Panthers 13

Pick Against the Spread: Falcons -7.5 (Confidence: 4/5)

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-9)

I will take the points here if I have to choose the spread, but I like the teaser instead. Earlier in the season the Bengals won 27-21. Steelers were …

Question: It’s week 14 and I’m in the playoffs. I just need one player to put into the FLEX position.

Pick one of the following players to start in my FLEX this week:

1.) Michael Turner (Q) vs. NO
2.) Kenny Britt vs. STL
3.) Steve Smith (NYG) vs. PHI
4.) Vincent Jackson @ DAL

Who would you pick and why?

Answer:

I think you need to wait a bit to find out Michael Turner’s status. If he plays, he’s a great start, because the Saints defense is very banged up and this game isn’t a lock for New Orleans. Meanwhile, it’s a must win for the Falcons if they want to have a shot at making the plays. If Turner is in the lineup for the Falcons, I would definitely start him.

The other no brainer is Kenny Britt. The Cardinals may have lost Otugwe for the rest of the season and their defense is terrible

Know better? Leave your own answer in the comments!…

The Bowl Season is upon us and I will be releasing as many picks as possible or at least my leans for as many games as I think have some value.  In general, you can be very successful simply betting the underdogs based on the past 25 years of bowl games.

Washington (+14) vs Nebraska for 2 units: The primary reason I am in love with this game is based on motivation.  Very rarely in college football do you get in season revenge game and that is exactly what you have here.  Nebraska humiliated Washington early this year on their own turf so you know Washington will come in completely fired up and focused.  Secondly, Washington made this bowl game by sheer determination and motivation to play in a bowl game so they will be very excited to be playing in this game.  Nebraska, on the other hand, has no motivation for playing in this game.  They are coming off a very tough loss to Oklahoma in which they could have been playing in a BCS game and now are playing in the meaningless Holiday Bowl.  In addition, the QB situation is totally up in the air for Nebraska.  So unless they resolve their team conflict issues, injuries, and find some motivation on the way to San Diego my money will be on Washington and the points.  Final Wash 19 Neb 7. WINNER

Notre Dame (+3) vs Miami for 2 units. We are back to the key ingredient of any bowl game here as we must focus on motivation.  ND has played very motivated after the death of the camera guy and the loss to Tulsa at home.  Whatever Brian Kelly did in that bye week really put this team …

Been swamped this week.  Going to post quick picks. Some extra analysis may possibly be updated Saturday.

PHILADELPHIA (-8.5) over Houston — I’m an Eagles fan so I’m forced to pick them. Ridiculously high spread against a good offense, but Eagles offense should get clicking again against the Texans poor defense.

Washington (+7) over NEW YORK GIANTS — Division games are tough. Especially when Giants are missing their WRs (Smith and Nicks are out).

Jacksonville over TENNESSEE — First impression. Subject to change.

Cleveland (+4.5) over MIAMI — Miami rebounds against Oakland after getting shut out by Bears. Have to stick with those Browns though! Not a high confidence play though.

Chicago (-4.5) over DETROIT — Chicago’s D is legit!

KANSAS CITY (-9.5) over Denver — Wow, Kansas City is for real? Too many points to take.

GREEN BAY (-9.5) over San Fransisco — Too many points for me to take, but I have to stick with the Pack at home.

MINNESOTA (-5.5) over Buffalo — Now that the Vikings got a W, they should be able to beat the Bills at home though, right? Bills took the Steelers to OT after killing the Bengals. What is going on?

New Orleans (-6.5) over CINCINNATI — This is one of my favorite plays this week.  Like I’ve been saying, New Orleans will get hot in the 2nd half of the season.

SAN DIEGO (-13) over Oakland — Oakland is in a funk again and San Diego’s offense has been clicking. Chargers need to keep pace with the Chiefs who have an easy game at home.

SEATTLE (-6) over Panthers — I love betting against the Panthers, so this game looks like it could be a taker.

INDIANAPOLIS (-5) over Dallas — …

Question: Which WR should I pick in week 13?

I need one of these to start this week, so who do you think will put up more points?

Anthony Gonzalez vs. CLE
Santonio Holmes vs. NE

Who would you put in the WR3 spot?

Answer:

I would go with Anthony Gonzalez since he’s Peyton Manning’ s 3rd down target and the Bears pass defense against slot receivers really isn’t all that great. Holmes has a tougher matchup against the Patriots so I would go with Gonzales!

Know better? Leave your own answer in the comments!…