Monday Night Pick: Chargers vs. Jaguars

Yesterday’s picks went 3-2 ATS. I was about to cut myself off after the Panthers pick, but had to throw out a 5th pick in the Cowboys but warned I wasn’t very confident in the play. Since my top-money play was the Ravens, it made for a great week while the Jets and Panthers also chipped in for the winning week.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-3) @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

I’m looking for reasons to go Jags here since they’re at home on Monday night, but I just cannot come up with too many reasons to pick them. The Jaguars are 3-8 and have the league’s worst offense, averaging just 250 yards-per-game and 12.5 PPG. The only argument one could make for the Jaguars, other than being a home dog on Monday night, is that they also happen to beat the Ravens on Monday night on October 24. The Jags won that game 12-7 by pressuring the Ravens, creating turnovers, and getting lucky. I’ll write that one off as a fluke as the Jaguars are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Monday Night games.

While San Diego has been bad this year and their 4-7 (2-9 ATS) record has turned bettors off from them, I think you’re getting a great spread to take them here. San Diego is averaging 22.6 PPG. If the Chargers win tonight, there’s still room for them to win the AFC West as they’ll be just 2 games behind with 4 more to play. With WR Maclolm Floyd back, Rivers will have another receiver to work with as well. I’m expecting the Chargers 6th-ranked passing offense to get the job done on Monday night, but the Chargers 26th-ranked run defense will keep the Jaguars in the game with MJD.

Expect a lousy, low-scoring, boring game tonight as the under is 10-1 in Jacksonville’s last 11. The under is also 6-2 in San Diego’s last 8 as a favorite. Jacksonville’s D has been pretty stingy, giving up just 18.2 PPG, while the Chargers have given up 25 PPG. Like I said, I was trying to look for reasons to pick the Jags, but the only reason I have is their fluke Monday night win over the Ravens. Take out the Ravens game and the Jaguars are 2-7 ATS on Monday Night in their last 9. With the Jaguars offense averaging 12.5 PPG, how is getting a field goal supposed to help them cover against the Chargers? That’s asking a lot from the Jaguars defense, but it also shows you the confidence Vegas has in the Jaguars, which makes this look like a trap game.

I’ll take the Chargers -3, but if you want an extra buffer, take the Chargers at +4 and tease the over/under to 46.5 and take the under. I’m only making it a 2/5 pick since the Chargers have been lousy all season long and I have an inkling that the Jaguars may pull off the upset. Put it on upset alert folks, but I’ll stick with the Chargers.

Prediction: Chargers 24 – Jaguars 17

Pick Against the Spread: Chargers -3 (Confidence: 2/5)