Archive for January, 2012

HOUSTON TEXANS (+7.5) @ BALTIMORE RAVENS

I think you go points here. The Texans defense should be able to keep the Texans in this game. Both defenses give up an average of 17 PPG. Both offenses score about 24 PPG. This is a very even matchup. I think this spread should be more like +4.5. Houston is giving up just 85.7 rushing yards per game in their last 3. I think you see the Texans hold the Ravens to a touchdown or less. But then again, you’re asking for a lot from T.J. Yates against the Ravens defense in the playoffs.

Prediction: Ravens 24 – Texans 17

Pick Against the Spread: Texans +7.5 (Confidence: 2/5)

NEW YORK GIANTS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS (-7.5)

I’m an Eagles fan, you think I’m going to take the Giants? Aaron Rodgers baby!

Prediction: Packers 38 – Giants 24

Pick Against the Spread: Packers -7.5 (Confidence: 3/5)…

It’s never easy picking playoff games, so I usually tread lightly throughout the playoffs. Most of the picks last week were low-confidence plays. In the last two years, the underdogs went 6-2 ATS in the Wild Card round, so I decided to play the trend and take the dogs this past week. Taking the dogs ended up 1-3 with Tim Tebow getting the sole cover.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3.5) @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

The books are giving much love to the 49ers and their top-ranked defense that gives up just 14.3 PPG (10.9 PPG at home). I think you’ll actually see the Saints punt at least once this game (unlike last game). That’s right, not a single punt from the Saints last game. Despite how good the 49ers defense is, I don’t think you see the 49ers hold the Saints to less than 24 points. However, there is a dramatic drop in PPG for the Saints when they travel. The Saints average about 41 PPG at home, but just 24 PPG on the road. That’s something to be concerned about. I actually think the bye weeks hurts the 49ers hurts more than it helps them since the Saints are coming into this game with a ton of momentum following their dominating win over the Lions last week. I’m going with the Saints this week and think you see them win by 7.

Prediction: Saints 27 – 49ers 20

Pick Against the Spread: Saints -3.5 (Confidence: 3/5)

DENVER BRONCOS (+13.5) @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Granted, New England beat up on Denver just a few weeks ago 41-23, but it’s a whole new day for Tim Tebow and the Broncos. I will take the points mainly because I want to root for …

At the time of this post, it looks like the Lions pick is panning out according to plan. The Lions got the opportunity to set the tone by scoring the first touchdown of the day, which was the key to their gameplan, as they’ll be able to carry a 14-10 lead into halftime which gives those with the points a 14.5-point lead at halftime. Let’s take a look at Sunday’s action.

ATLANTA FALCONS (+3) @ NEW YORK GIANTS

First, full disclosure, I am an Eagles fan so I am never going to take the Giants in the playoffs, so this pick is totally bias. First, the Giants are inconsistent. They can either be on fire or they can absolutely suck. They can manage to beat the Cowboys twice and the Jets once, but they’ll lose to the Redskins and Seahawks. I guess you can call division games never easy and the Seahawks game a fluke. This is a pretty even match-up. Homefield advantage is key. If this is played in Atlanta, you take the Falcons — no doubt about it.  But with the game played in New York, it gives the Giants a legitimate shot. Both offenses are quite impressive. Even there. Both have good defenses. Even there. I just want to see the Giants lose so I’ll go Falcons here.

Prediction: Falcons 27 – Giants 24

Pick Against the Spread: Falcons +3 (Confidence: 3/5)

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-9) @ DENVER BRONCOS

This is going to be an ugly game. The over/under 33.5 is telling of that. The Steelers D is going to absolutely stifle Tim Tebow and the Broncos. The Steelers have given up an average of 14 PPG during the season and 9.7 PPG in their last 3 games. …

It is good to be back. The holidays are always crazy. We finished the year strong going 2-0 in week 16 and hitting our top pick in the Falcons in week 17. We are ready to roll into the playoffs with more juice in our pockets. It is wild card weekend and four games are on tap. The playoffs are extremely tough to pick against the spread. In the last two years, the wild card dogs went 6-2 ATS. I may have to play the trend and pick every dog on this week’s card. If I’m not taking the points, I am staying away as I think you take the points in all four games this weekend.

CINCINATTI BENGALS (+4) @ HOUSTON TEXANS

The Texans have made the playoffs for the first time in their history and will have to rely on their rookie T.J. Yates who is 2-3 as a starter and has an average QB rating of 80.3. T.J. faced the Bengals on December 11th and pulled out the victory, winning a tight one 20-19. In that game, Yates threw for 300 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 INT. The player to watch in this one is obviously Arian Foster who will take on the 10th ranked run defense in the NFL. When Arian faced the Bengals just a few weeks ago, he was completely shut down. Foster was held to 41 rushing yards and posted his worst per-carry average of the season, racking up just 2.7 YPC.

This game should be another tight one. I’ll trust the Bengals D to contain Adrian Foster again and put the pressure on Yates to win this game with his arm. In their last game, the Texans won 20-19.  I expect a …

Question:

Week 17 feels like a bye week, it’s very weird. Normally this would be a no brainer, but should I start Aaron Rodgers or Alex Smith? Rodgers might rest quite a bit like he did last week, and at least Smith will play the whole game and it will be against the awful St. Louis Rams defense.

Also, what about Larry Fitzgerald. I know it’s “rest ’em” week, but I have a feeling he’ll get more playing time than is assumed. Or maybe I just need him to. Maybe I can “will” him to play. I’ve already had to sit Vincent Jackson and play Devin Aromashodu in his place, and my other options are Dwayne Bowe and Josh Morgan. Which is why I still have Fitzgerald in there. I’ve also had to sit Tony Gonzalez and sub with John Carlson. I’m assuming that Indy will sit their defensive starters, too, so I’m going to take a chance with Fred Jackson. Any advice on the QB and WR situations, though?

Who in the world would have a championship game in week 17 anyway? My other RB is Chris Johnson, so I’m good there.

Answer:

I would probably go with Smith given the uncertainty of GB players resting. I would also go with Bowe for the same reason. I would rather take my chances with players that will play the whole game then get screwed because a team decides to rest their players.…

Good morning and Happy New Year from the West Coast. It’s so weird that football games start at 10:00 AM. I just woke up hungover and it’s halftime in the 1:00 games. How do these people live? Week 17 is always a crap shoot anyway.

At 4:00, I think you continue to pound the Bucs by taking the Falcons (-9.5) at home and go with Pittsburgh (-7) on the road over Cleveland. In the rest of the games, I’ll stick with Tim Tebow at home to rebound from last week’s embarrassing loss, San Diego (+2.5) over Oakland, and Seattle (+2.5) over Arizona. My top 4:00 play has to be the Falcons followed by the Steelers.

Sorry I missed the 1:00 action, but my only play there would have been Bears (+1.5) over Vikings.

Happy New Years!…