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Archive for September, 2012

Week 4 – Picks Against the Spread (2012)

Posted by in NFL Picks on September 27th, 2012 | Comment »

Week 4 Picks Against the SpreadFinally, a week that I like which features four home teams worth looking into. I think you take a hard look into Cardinals (-6), Falcons (-7), Broncos (-6.5), and Packers (-7.5).  Those four games are at the top of my list this week. Let’s get after it. Be sure to vote below for your favorite pick this week.

ATLANTA FALCONS (-7) over Carolina Panthers — Confidence: 9/10 — The Falcons have the best offense in the NFL right now, are we all in agreement there? Atlanta won and covered the spread against the Panthers twice last year including a 31-17 win at home and I think the outcome should be the same. The Panthers don’t have a pass rush and their secondary isn’t very good, which means that the Falcons will be able to move the ball effectively, rarely punt, and will score a lot of points. The Falcons defense is also very strong. They picked off Peyton Manning 4 times and held the Chargers to 3 points. The Panthers offensive struggles that were seen against Tampa Bay and New York should continue.  The only scare here is if Cam Newton finally has that week where he goes H.A.M. Even if he does, his defense will let him down once again. Panthers’ defensive star LB Jon Beason is also questionable with a knee injury. Want some trends to back this up? Atlanta is 4-0 ATS against the Panthers in their last 4 and are 11-2 ATS when facing a team with a losing record. Carolina is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 dome games and 6-11 ATS on the road.

ARIZONA CARDINALS (-6) over Miami Dolphins — Confidence: 8/10 — If the same Cardinals defense that showed up in the …

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Arizona Cardinals vs. Miami Dolphins Pick Against the Spread

Posted by in NFL Picks on September 26th, 2012 | 1 Comment

Cardinals vs. Dolphins Pick Against the SpreadMIAMI DOLPHINS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS (-6)

The one downside to this pick is the Cardinals don’t necessarily have an offensive juggernaut and won’t light up the scoreboard against a solid Miami defense, but I’m banking on the Cardinals defense dominating the the Dolphins. The Cardinals defense is for real. I’m not overreacting their wins over the Patriots and Eagles either. I’m an Eagles fan and witnessed the Eagles debacle first-hand last week.

The Cardinals beat Vick’s ass and they did the same thing to Tom Brady and Russell Wilson. I don’t think Vick had a single snap where he had more than 3 seconds to get the football out of his hands. If Vick held onto the football for 4 seconds, he was either scrambling for minimal yardage, throwing an errant pass, getting sacked, or fumbling the football. I’m not going to put the blame on the Eagles offensive line either, the Cardinals defensive front four simply outplayed the Eagles offensive line.

If the Cardinals bring the same pressure they brought in the first three weeks, they’re going to dominate this game. The Cardinals managed to make Tom Brady befuddled. Imagine what they’re going to do when facing rookie Ryan Tannehill. It’s no surprise that the Cardinals defense rank 2nd in sacks behind the Chicago Bears. The Cardinals have 12 sacks so far. Unfortunately for the Cardinals, DE Darnell Docket is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury. Tannehill has struggled this year as his average QB rating is 58.3. Last week against the Jets, he completed just 44% of his passes and threw an INT. That’s now 1 TD and 4 INTs for Tannehill. In week 1, the Texans picked him off thrice. His yard-per-attempt is an awful 6.0 …

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Monday Night Pick: Green Bay Packers vs. Seattle Seahawks

Posted by in NFL Picks on September 24th, 2012 | Comment »

Week 3 Seahawks vs. Packers Pick Against the SpreadIn was a tough week 3 thanks in part to 9 home dogs on this week’s card. It was a mixed bag as the home dogs went 4-3 ATS this week. Our only play on Sunday was the Steelers. It was looking good for 3 quarters going into the 4th with a 31-21 lead until a little Oakland magic that only comes with home field advantage occurred, which gave the Raiders the upset win. Tonight we have another home dog on Monday Night.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-3.5) @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

First, I’m not touching this game. To give you a teaser of what I like in week 4, I think you take a hard look at Cardinals (-6.5) at home over the Miami Dolphins, especially if Reggie Bush (suffered a knee injury and didn’t play the rest of the game) is ruled out. Miami’s success is squarely on the back of Reggie Bush and the Dolphins offense was ineffective against the Jets once Bush left the game. The Cardinals have a solid defense and will hold the Dolphins to 13 points or less next week. Now onto tonight’s game.

I’m going to pick my battles against the 12-6 home dogs and this isn’t a spot to pick against them on Monday Night. Seattle is a tough place to play. The Seahawks are 13-5 ATS at home in the last three years, including a 6-2 record when a home underdog of 3 points or less.The Packers have faired pretty well on the road going 11-8 ATS. I’m going to take them for purposes of the pick ’em league, but there’s no shame in passing on the game due to uncertainty.

The public loves the Packers and that’s what Vegas wants. 86% …

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The Home Dogs Do It Again…

Posted by in NFL Picks on September 23rd, 2012 | Comment »

We had 7 home dogs on Sunday and how did they fair? 4-3 ATS to extend their record to 12-6 ATS on the year. This week wasn’t as damaging to road favorites as week 2. In week 2, the home dogs went 5-1 ATS. As you should know by now, stay away from betting against home dogs. If you do, pick your battles and proceed with caution.

As I stated before I even got into the picks, I hated this week and that was precisely why. I didn’t see any value in taking the points with any home dogs when they were collectively a toss up and you ended up with a mixed bag as the road favorites went 3-4 ATS.

I stayed away from every home dog this week expect one: Steelers (-4) over Raiders. I tried to pick a battle against one home dog this week — and they got me. This game was one that could have been won as the Steelers dominated the 1st half and were holding a 31-21 lead going into the 4th quarter until an Antonio Brown turnover resulted in a Raiders drive that changed the momentum their way.

Week 3 Home Dog Results:

Minnesota Vikings (+7) defeat San Francisco 49ers — 24-13

Tennessee Titans (+3) defeat Detroit Lions — 44-41

Oakland Raiders (+4) defeat Pittsburgh Steelers — 34-31

Arizona Cardinals (+4) defeat Philadelphia Eagles — 27-6

Buffalo Bills (-3) defeat Cleveland Browns — 24-14

Houston Texans (-1.5) defeat Denver Broncos — 31-25

New York Jets (-3) defeat Miami Dolphins — 23-20…

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Sunday Night Pick: Ravens vs. Patriots

Posted by in NFL Picks on September 23rd, 2012 | Comment »

Ravens vs. Patriots Pick Against the SpreadMy Sunday is contingent upon the Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Oakland Raiders game. I have a medium-sized play  on the Steelers (-4) over the Raiders and the Steelers are on top 31-21 at the end of the 3rd quarter. It was a mere 7/10 confidence pick as nothing warranted an 8/10 or more on Sunday. I didn’t do much else as I warned that I hated this week! We had 9 home dogs and I had to pick and choose my battles this week. I didn’t like any home favorites and the best road favorite worth taking a shot on, in my opinion, was the Steelers (-4).

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS (-2.5)

Tonight we have a rematch of the AFC Championship. Earlier this week I picked the Ravens and I’m sticking to it. The main two factors for me are that (1) this is a revenge game for the Ravens who should have won the AFC Championship last year; and (2) the Ravens are at home in the lights. The Ravens were 8-0 at home last year.

The Cardinals and Giants have provided a blue print on how to beat the Patriots. Teams that can generate pressure can beat Tom Brady and that’s what the Ravens are able to do. I expect a tight game and a game that should be low scoring. The over/under is set pretty high at 48.5. The Patriots have an improved defense from last year so expect the Ravens to be limited offensively.

I think you can even get fancy here and take a shot with a parlay of Ravens (-2.5)/Under 48.5. You can also tease this game to make the spread Ravens (+4.5)/Under 55.5. This isn’t the best game to bet on, …

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Week 3 – Flex – Start or Sit – Peyton Hillis, Mark Ingram, or Michael Crabtree?

Posted by in NFL Week 3 Start 'Em Sit 'Em Advice on September 23rd, 2012 | Comment »

Question:

Should I start or sit Peyton Hillis in week 3 @ New Orlenas? This is for my flex and my other options are Mark Ingram vs. KC or Michael Crabtree @ MIN.

Answer:

Peyton Hillis has been a disappointment for fantasy owner who likely spent a mid-round pick on him when a quality WR could have been taken such as Mike Wallace or Stevie Johnson.

The good news for Peyton Hillis this week is the Saints defense. They’ve given up the 2nd most fantasy points to running backs through two games this season. Jamaal Charles also tweaked his inured knee last week against the Bills. Although Charles should play this week (he’s listed as probable), the injury gives the Chiefs staff more reasons to decrease his workload while giving Hillis more carries.

Hillis saw 7 carries in week 1 and 11 carries last week. Hills may see as many as 15 carries this week. Although Hillis in week 1 was a bust against the Falcons, Hillis had a much better game in week 2 against the Bills picking up 66 yards on 11 carries and hauling in 3 receptions for 25 yards. A 6.0 YPC and 12.5 YPR average make fantasy owners happy, but he just needs to get more touches and he should have that opportunity against the Saints this week.

I don’t trust Ingram in my starting lineup since his fantasy numbers are always contingent on whether he gets any goalline opportunities for the Saints. Without the goalline opportunities, he won’t put up any big numbers and his statline may come in at 15 carries for 60 yards on a good day. Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles also put a big dent in his touches.

Michael Crabtree …

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Week 3 – WR – Start or Sit – Marques Colston or Lance Moore?

Posted by in NFL Week 3 Start 'Em Sit 'Em Advice on September 23rd, 2012 | Comment »

Question:

Should I start Lance Moore or Marques Colston in week 3.  My other active WR’s are A.J. Green, Mike Wallace, and at Flex Stevie Johnson in a PPR league.

Answer:

Marques Colston is listed as questionable with a foot injury, so you may want to put Lance Moore in the starting lineup. If you find out right before kickoff that Colston is going to be playing, then I would insert him in your lineup as he’s a more consistent producer compared to Moore.

Your other wide receivers and flex should do plenty of damage this week. A.J. Green @ WAS, Mike Wallace @ OAK, and Stevie Johnson @ CLE are all quality starts this week due to their favorable matchups and should put up big numbers this week.

Good luck!…

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