Archive for November, 2012

Our Thanksgiving Day Special delivered once again — 2-0-1 ATS. The Texans pushed and we hit on Redskins (+3.5) and Patriots/Over 41.5 teaser. This Sunday, I’m not crazy about any particular games. I’m pretty much taking most of the home teams here. I would probably tease Bengals (-2.5) with Broncos (-3.5), and would consider taking a shot on the Colts (-3), Seahawks (-2.5) and Packers (+3). Targetting the Eagles also makes a lot of sense to me as I’ve been witnessing their disgrace throughout the season.

CINCINNATI BENGALS (-9.5) over Oakland Raiders — Confidence: 5/10 — This is too many points for the Bengals to lay, but I just can’t take the Raiders with the points. The Raiders secondary is atrocious so Andy Dalton and A.J. Green will do some damage. The Raiders will be one-dimensional with Darren McFadden out once again. I would tease this spread down to Bengals (-2.5) to pair with another game such as Broncos (-3.5).

CLEVELAND BROWNS (+1) over Pittsburgh Steelers — Confidence: 5/10 — I’m putting a bit of blind faith in the Browns. Charlie Batch will be the starter in this one and the Steelers offense will be without Antonio Brown. Troy Polamalu will also be out once again. I liked what I saw from the Browns last week against the Cowboys and the Browns beat the Chargers and Bengals at home.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-3) over Buffalo Bills — Confidence: 7/10 — The Colts are 4-1 SU and ATS at home this season. The Bills are 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS on the road. The Bills will hang around and will keep this one close, but I expect the Colts to pull this one out. Interesting trend that the Colts are 6-0 …

Betting Tip: For many teams, this is the final week of year so it is important to find teams that still have something to play for and key in on those games. Finding a team without a lot to play for verse a team that has already packed it in or one of the major programs that has already been eliminated from BCS eligibility could lead to great “spot” plays.

1. LSU (-13) vs Arkansas: I like this spot play for LSU. A lot would have to happen to allow LSU back into the picture, but there is an outside chance should things fall apart for the teams ahead of them that could end up in a BCS game (not likely, but possible). Arkansas has nothing to play for at this point. Ark is 2-9 ATS on the season. Against average defenses their offense has completely struggled. As we all know, LSU still has one of the top defenses in the country. LSU should be able to score at will and I don’t see there defense giving up more than 10 points. Lay the 13 with LSU for 2 units.

2. Arizona St vs Arizona OVER 68.5. Arizona State has played better on the road this year and their defense has been respectable all year. However, AzSt’s D struggled against the spread offense of Oregon and Coach Rich Rod should take special note of that and exploit those weaknesses. Rich isn’t a great coach, but he does know how to get teams to score. Therefore, I see Arizona putting up a score in the mid 30s. Arizona has really struggled to stop any team with a legitimate offense and that should again haunt them here. Arizona State will come to …

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! We have very much to be thankful for in November. So far this month we have gone 28-14 ATS. November has simply been our strongest month year in and year out and has padded our pockets full of cash.

Houston Texans (-3) over DETROIT LIONS — Confidence: 8/10 — Thanks to the Texans near loss to the Jaguars at home last week, we are getting a very favorable spread for this game. 72% of the public is taking the Texans and that’s who I like in this one. Eliminate last week’s outlier against the Jags and the Texans have had one of the top defenses in the league right up there with the Bears and 49ers. The Lions have been very disappointing this season with a 4-6 SU and ATS record. The Lions are coming off back-to-back losses to the Packers and Vikings. Detroit hasn’t even been a strong team at home this season. They are 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS. The Texans, on the other hand, have played well on the road going 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS. Earlier this season, the Lions played very well against the run, but that’s slipped in the last few weeks. The Lions have given up 4.95 YPC in the last four weeks and if that continues to be the case today, Arian Foster is going to have a big day, the Texans will control the clock, and dominate this football game. The Lions may also be without their starting left tackle. The left tackle is the most important position on the football field in my opinion as it protects the quarterback’s blind side. The Eagles have been without their starting Pro Bowl left tackle and see how that …

Question:

Which QB should I go with in week 12, Matt Schaub or Colin Kaepernick?

Answer:

Colin Kaepernick looked awesome against the Bears last week, but Alex Smith may be back as the starting QB this week. However, Smith’s status is still uncertain. Matt Schaub put up ridiculous numbers last week against the Jaguars by throwing for over 500 yards, but will havbe a much tougher matchup this week against the Detroit Lions. Assuming Kaepernick gets the start, he can do a lot of damage against the Saints poor defense by running the ball.

Since Schaub plays on Thursday, he’s the safer pick since there still is a chance that Alex Smith starts on Sunday. However, if you have another option at QB on Sunday just in case you get news that Alex Smith starts then I would go with Kaepernick right now due to the upside in taking him against a poor defense that he get pick up tons of rushing yards on.…

Had to do some quick picks this week. Here we go.

BUFFALO BILLS (-2) over Miami Dolphins — Have to go Bills at home. Miami didn’t look too good against the Colts. Reggie Bush was benched and Tannehill struggled.

ATLANTA FALCONS (-10) over Arizona Cardinals — Too many points for me to bite on it, but the Cardinals won’t have the offense so I’ll favor the dirty birds. Teasing Falcons (-3) to pair with another game looks like a strong choice.

Cleveland Browns (+8) over DALLAS COWBOYS — Expect Dallas to win, but the Browns will put up a fight and I think they land a backdoor cover in garbage time.

Green Bay Packers (-3.5) over DETROIT LIONS — Packers dominate this matchup.

CINCINNATI BENGALS (-3.5) over Kansas City Chiefs — Bengals looked strong at home against the Giants last week. That should continue this week against the Chiefs.

ST. LOUIS RAMS (-3.5) over New York Jets — The Jets are imploding. The Rams nearly beat the 49ers on the road last week and they’ve been strong at home.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS (-3.5) over Philadelphia Eagles — I’m picking against my Eagles again because they suck and find every way possible to lose games. FIRE ANDY REID!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5) over CAROLINA PANTHERS — I’ve been thoroughly impressed with the way the Bucs have been playing over the last 5 weeks. The Panthers just don’t have it together.

HOUSTON TEXANS (-15.5) over Jacksonville Jaguars — LOL at the spread, but this should be blowout city.

New Orleans Saints (-5) over OAKLAND RAIDERS — Raiders got rocked by the Ravens because they’re a one-dimensional team with Run DMC and Mike Goodson both out. The Saints should rock the Raiders this week …

No write ups this week just the plays:

Iowa at MICHIGAN (-17) play on UM for 1 unit.

OHIO STATE (+2.5) at Wisconsin for 1 unit.

Stanford at Orgeon (-19) for 1 unit.

Arizona (+3) at Utah for 1 unit.

More to come later.…

Question:

Should I start Ryan Fitzpatrick or Matt Schaub. I need a win bad.

Answer:

This one is a no-brainer. Matt Schaub is facing the Jacksonville Jaguars, whose defense is ranked 26th in the NFL and giving up 27.3 PPG. Ryan Fitzpatrick has a matchup against a solid Miami Dolphins defensive unit that gives up just 20.7 PPG. The Texans will have far more opportunities to score than the Bills do this week. The only downside will be if Arian Foster takes most of those touchdowns.…