Archive for August, 2014

Just got done with my first draft and I’m very happy with the results. I got a ton of guys that I was looking to get. In the first three rounds, it was just a matter of who fell to me and then it was just a matter of where I thought I was getting the most value or the most upside. Here are my picks and throughts.

12-Teams – 1/2 Point PPR

1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, FLEX, D/ST, K

1.) Adrian Peterson (RB) – #3 – I wasn’t thrilled with drafting #3. The debate begins at A.P vs. Forte. I knew Forte has more upside PPR value, but A.P. makes up whatever PPR downside he has with him getting more goalline opportunities. I’m concerned with A.P.’s age, but Forte is no spring chicken, he’s just as old. I don’t want to go WR this early with Calvin Johnson since I don’t know what kind of RB I’m getting in Round 2. You need a stud at RB. A.P. is guy that gets drafted in the top 5 every year he’s healthy. Forte is a guy you draft in the last half of Round 1. Adrian Peterson is still the guy to draft at #3 after Jamaal Charles and LeSean McCoy.

2.) Leo’Veon Bell (RB) – #22 – I was targeting Brandon Marshall in Round 2, who I like just as much as Dez Bryant and A.J. Green and he usually goes mid-Round 2. I was looking to get a WR stud, but they’re all off the board and the next wide receivers up are Alshon and Jordy. Giovani Bernard and Montee Ball are taken by now. I had my eye on Le’Veon Bell and Giovani Bernard as …

Tavon Austin is a guy that I’m targeting as a late-round flyer. He’s the poor man’s Cordarrelle Patterson. He may get you a return TD or two this season, he gets involved in the run game, and like Pattterson this year, the Rams will be doing anything just to get the ball in his hands this year with plays like bubble screens and short slant routes that may end up turning into big yards.

Both players are entering their sophomore campaign. Tavon Austin was the 1st wide receiver off the board in 2013, selected 8th overall. Cordarrelle Patterson was selected 29th overall. Being the first wide receiver drafted and being drafted in the top 10 came with big expectations, especially following the likes of other top 10 wide receivers recently drafted such as A.J. Green and Julio Jones. Tavon Austin’s 2013 season was considered a bust, especially for those who took a mid-round flyer on him in fantasy football hoping that he would be the next Julio Jones.

Statistically, Tavon Austin wasn’t that far behind from Cordarrelle Patterson. Cordarrelle Patterson had 45 receptions, 469 receiving yards, and 4 receiving TDs. Tavon Austin has 40 receptions, 418 receiving yards, and 4 receiving TDs. Cordarrelle Patterson had 12 rushing attempts, 158 rushing yards, and 3 rushing TDs. Tavon Austin had 9 rushing attempts, 151 rushing yards, and 1 rushing TD. Tavon Austin’s numbers could have been better than Patterson’s had he not missed the last three games of the season.

However, Tavon Austin never really impressed throughout the last season, whereas Cordarrelle Patterson burst onto the scene around week 13. From weeks 13-17, Cordarrelle Patterson was a fantasy football beast. You never really got that stretch of performance and glimpse of the …

Just wanted to check in with everybody. I’ve been working away on my 2014 Fantasy Football Rankings. Check those out as it will be a great cheat sheet for your draft and also breaks players down into tiers (RB1, RB2, WR1, WR2, WR3). It’s a continued work in progress until the season kicks off.

Just a few predictions about the upcoming 2014 football season and my approach to betting on the NFL in 2014. First, I’m not going to place any substantial bets on games until at least week 5. There are surprises every year and there are a lot of teams that I usually tend to enjoy betting against that will be much better football teams this year (e.g., Vikings, Jets, Jaguars, Rams, Browns, Cardinals, etc.). I wouldn’t be surprised to see the dogs starting the year on a very good note.

Over the last four years, I’ve found that my best weeks against the spread have been weeks 10-16.  That’s when things get serious. What gives me an edge during this time is I’ve found that the parity between teams that is often seen in the beginning of the year begins to dissipate. The playoff teams typically kick it up a notch while other teams who will not be competing for a playoff spot take a step back. It’s simply a matter of the playoff teams gaining confidence and the non-playoff teams losing confidence and you see that  take effect after week 9 once teams have a better idea of whether they are a contender or not.

For example, the Broncos were 6-2 ATS in their final 8 games after starting the season 4-3-1 ATS. The Seahawks finished the season 6-1 ATS after going 5-4 ATS in …