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Normally I would do the analysis on every NFL game, but I’m running short on time with Christmas coming up and there just aren’t many good spreads this week.

I hit 4/4 picks last night at THE ONETIMER for 6 units of profit and we’re back in the black in the NHL. Merry Christmas to you if you took down those picks!  My NHL mojo is coming back to me, but sometimes you get hot and sometimes you get cold in the NHL.  These days, I’m taking more games where I’m giving up the goal-and-a-half for better odds rather than laying down the extra cheddar on the moneyline and I’ve been hitting those picks.

Here is what I like in the NFL this week:

1.) PHILADELPHIA -7 over Denver — Denver is a bit of a fraud.  They were killed by the Colts despite Brandon Marshall’s 21 receptions, 200 yards, and 2 TDs, and they just lost home to the RAIDERS.  If you lose at home to the Raiders, you are a pretender, not a contender.  Yes, the Eagles also lost to the Raiders, but that was in the beginning of the season, and that was when they were on the road I and I said “watch out since the Eagles sometimes play awful when they travel out west.”  The Eagles have won 5 in a row now and there’s no reason for them not to make it 6.  They’re hot right now and no team plays better December football than the Eagles.  The return of Brian Dawkins will be an emotional moment for me.  I, of course, am a diehard Eagles fan, so of course I’m picking them.

2.) COLTS -3 over Jets (1st Half Line) — Expect the Colts to dominate the Jets when their starters are in there for the first half.  I think you stick to the 1st half line since Peyton may be pulled in the 2nd half and that could allow the Jets to get back in there in the 2nd half and potentially cover with the 5.5 points.

3.) Dallas -6.5 over REDSKINS — After seeing the Redskins heartless performance last week, I don’t see how anyone can think the Redskins rebound after that one.  But sometimes crazy things happen in the world of sports.  Like calling the worst trick play that ever existed twice in a row.

4.) BROWNS -3 over Raiders – After seeing the Browns beat the Steelers, I rode their coat tails with a win over the Chiefs and I think they can beat the Raiders at home.  Their D plays better at home and Joshua Cribbs is has been Filthy McNasty.

5.) Vikings -7 over BEARS – The Bears are horrendous.  I thought last week could be a spot where you could take the points and get a chance for the cover.  I didn’t take the game, but that was my pick for the game.  They just got killed by the Ravens.  Their team is in disarray.  The Vikings should rebound after last week’s loss.  They need this one to secure that first-round bye. We typically like home teams on Monday night, but that kept me out of last week’s play on the Giants even though I loved the Giants. I didn’t want to bet against the home dog since the week before, the Cardinals got dogged by the 49ers on Monday Night.  The Bears, like the Redskins, should be a team you’re safe betting against in prime-time games.  I’ll also be a big Bears fan on Monday Night with the hopes that the Eagles could steal away that first-round bye.

6.) Jacksonville +8 over PATRIOTS — I had to find a game that I like with the points for the hell of picking out a game where I like the points.  I just think the Jaguars match up well with the Patriots and this should be a fairly tight game with not many scores like the Bills vs. Patriots game from last week.  Pats have been committing to the run lately and that’s been eating clock. Jags should be able to move the ball well on the ground as well.  I never like betting on the Jaguars and by no means is this my stamp of approval to take them, but this is kind of like a random call just for the hell of making it.  Patriots win, Jags cover.  24-17.

Games to Avoid: I want to take Chargers +3 over Tennessee, but that one gets passed on due to the Chargers having to play on the road on Christmas.  I don’t like that combo.  Remember the Giants on Turkey Day?  Horrendous.  Dolphins/Texans and Steelers/Ravens are toss ups.

What are the Redskins thinking?  They line up in the formation.  Giants call a time out. And they try the exact same play.  You have the center attempting a delay and no offensive linemen to protect against the Giant’s 3 down lineman, 2 linebackers, and a safety? What are you thinking?

C’MON MAN!

Brandon is back to posting his NCAA basketball picks at THE TRIPLE DOUBLE.  He had one game on last night’s card and it was a winner.  You can read why he had to take a short absence over there.  He has an NBA over/under play tonight.  He’ll be back to posting college football during the thick of the Bowl season.

It was a winning week this past week.  We took down some plays on the Packers, Chargers, Eagles, Texans, and Vikings, and had losses with the Saints and Cardinals.  No big deal, I’ll take a 5-2 week anytime.  Now we’re getting into the thick of the NFL season when things get really exciting.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -3 @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

As soon as I saw this spread, I loved it.  I said, hold on, did the Colts already clinch home field advantage? And it turns out that they did.  I quick news search on Google stated that Peyton Manning and all healthy starts will play this Sunday.  I would love taking the Colts if home field was on the line, but with no motivation to really win this one and not knowing how long Peyton will play: a quarter, a half, who knows, I think you stay away from this one.  On the other hand, I’m sure the Colts, like the Saints, want to go undefeated.  Can you imagine 18-0 Colts vs. 18-0 Saints in the SuperBowl?

Prediction: Colts 24 – Jaguars 20

Free Pick: Colts -3 (Confidence: 2/5)

DALLAS COWBOYS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -7

I am loving this as an Eagles fan.  Not only did the Eagles win over the Giants give the Eagles sole possession of the NFC East with 2-straight home games against the 49ers and Broncos, but the Cowboys lost to the Chargers after losing to the Giants and now have to go on the road to face the Saints.  Saints are still playing for home field so I think you see them win this one.  The Cowboys December woes continue.  Get the “Is Wade Phillips getting fired?” talks going.  I’m loving this!

Prediction: Saints 27 – Cowboys 20

Free Pick: Saints -7 (Confidence: 2/5)

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -2

Browns beat the Steelers and Joshua Cribbs had a breakout performance as a running back! A healthy dose of Joshua Cribbs this game will give the Browns the win. Browns D is playing inspired and the Chiefs continue to be horrendous.

Prediction: Browns 24 – Chiefs 17

Free Pick: Browns +2 (Confidence: 3/5)

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -7 @ BUFFALO BILLS

I like the Patriots here, but reluctant to take them since there’s some team turmoil.  You didn’t see a run up in the score last week with the weather conditions.  You’ll obviously be getting another cold one in Buffalo.  I’m weary of betting against home underdogs, but I’m thinking the Pats are due for a big win.

Prediction: Patriots 24 – Bills 16

Free Pick: Patriots -7 (Confidence: 2/5)

ARIZONA CARDINALS -12 @ DETROIT LIONS

I swear it’s in Kurt Warner’s contract that he has to play like crap once every 5 games and throw a minimum an 3 picks and a fumble.  With the Lions awful defense, how can you not like the Cardinals even at -12? The Cardinals have been solid on the road, despite last week’s loss, but I’ll chalk that up to the Monday Night home team factor that we usually stick to plus the clause in Warner’s contract. The Lions should get blown out just like they did last week.

Prediction: Cardinals 38 – Lions 17

Free Pick: Cardinals -12 (Confidence: 3/5)

CHICAGO BEARS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS -11

I was thinking of taking the points here.  The Bears are struggling big time, but they can contain the run, which was critical to Ravens win last week.  In a cold game with two teams known for defense and running, I think you see a tight, low scoring affair.

Prediction: Ravens 16 – Bears 10

Free Pick: Parlay Bears +11, Under 40.5 (Confidence: 2/5)

SAN FRANSISCO 49ERS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -7.5

I’m an Eagles fan.  Eagles play great football in December.  West coast teams struggle on the east coast at 1:00.  Eagles are in control of their own destiny now.  What else do you want to know?  LET’S GO EAGLES! E-A-G-L-E-S EAGLES!!!

Prediction: Eagles 24 – 49ers 13

Free Pick: Eagles -7.5 (Confidence: 2.5/5)

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -6.5

Bengals are losing their mojo and the Chargers are HOT right now.  Chargers want to lock up that first-round bye.  I think you see them win by 10.

Prediction: Chargers 24 – Bengals 14

Free Pick: Chargers -6.5 (Confidence: 2.5/5)

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ DENVER BRONCOS -14

Don’t like this one with the high spread.  Sure, Brandon Marshall is the 3rd best receiver in the NFL behind Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson.  However, the Raiders match up with the Broncos well.  This one will be too close for comfort with the spread, so I’m passing here.  Don’t want to take the Raiders for the sake of taking 14 points since the Raiders could easily get blown out.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -7

I’m going to pass on this one too since both teams blow.  Seahawks are at home, so that’s where I’m leaning, but don’t like this game.

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS -2

Steelers cannot lose their 6th straight came, can they? Not at home, right? You have to feel the Steelers are due for a win, but they have just been anemic.  The Packers are hot right now and that who I’ll go with.

Prediction: Packers 24 – Steelers 20

Free Pick: Packers +2 (Confidence: 2/5)

MINNESOTA VIKINGS -9 @ CAROLINA PANTHERS

Panthers don’t win unless they can run the ball.  Vikings are arguable the best team against the run.  The Vikings need this one to clinch the division and get that first-round bye. Panthers Pro-Bowl OT is out, so look for backup QB Moore to be pressured a lot.  This one is looking very one sided to me.

Prediction: Vikings 27 – Panthers 13

Free Pick: Vikings -9 (Confidence: 3.5/5)

NEW YORK GIANTS -3 @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Redskins are playing much better right now.  Home Team + Monday Night = Usual Winning Ticket.  I’ll be rooting to the Redskins so the Giants are off the Eagles tails and the Eagles trip to the playoffs becomes easier. However, I think you see the Giants win this one. I want to stick to the home-team Monday night play, which usually works well, but my personal feelings are interfering with good judgment.  I think this a game you just have to pass on.

TOP 5 SPREADS THIS WEEK:

It’s a so-so card this week.  Here is what I like.  As you can see, no plays received a 4/5 rating.

1.) Vikings -9 over PANTHERS

2.) Cardinals -12 over LIONS

3.) CHARGERS -6.5 over Bengals (* Disclaimer: A lot of Vegas money is going on the Bengals according to Brandon.)

4.) EAGLES -7.5 over 49ers

5.) Browns +2 over CHIEFS

Yes, this was the Game of the Year. What a football game. DeSean Jackson, I love you.

You guys know how much I love Brandon Marshall.  Not only did I steal him in my draft, but he single-handedly helped me win the big playoff game yesterday thanks to a 21 reception, 200 yard, 2 TD performance. Also, much thanks to DeSean Jackson’s ridiculous performance last night.  Here is a video of all 21 receptions by Brandon Marshall.

So after a ridiculous Thanksgiving weekend run, the NFL went back to being totally unpredictable and downright silly again, led by the Raiders beating the Steelers in Pittsburgh.

My Eagles won and gave us a big hit, but my other top 3 picks failed me as the Pats lost the Dolphins, the Vikings lost to the Cardinals, and the Cowboys lost to the Giants.

There’s no way I thought the Patriots would lose after their disappointing Monday Night loss to the Saints.  The Cardinals lose at home to the Panthers and 49ers at home and beat the Vikings? No one can make sense of whats going on with the Cardinals on a week-to-week basis.  I played the Cowboys since I thought Eli Manning is DONE due to his foot injury. Well, it turns out that he still has some gas left in the tank.

A quick glance at the spreads and I hate this week’s card.  But let’s see if we can find anything good.  I’m going to make this one short and sweet since I am running short on time.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS -10 @ CLEVELAND BROWNS

The Steelers have lost 4 straight including losses to the Chiefs and the Raiders. They also lost Hines Ward and Polamalu is still out. One of our readers suggested teasing Steelers -3 and taking the over 26.  That may be the way to go, but I like the under here. Don’t count on much scoring from the Browns. I had a pick of Browns +21, over 32.5 when the Browns faced the Bengals and the final score in that one was 16-7. The Browns are playing better D lately and this one will possibly be in the snow.  I like the Steelers -3 with the under 40.  I got this after the line movement, so my play is Steelers -2, Under 40.5.  It’s going to be COLD AND WINDY tonight. Into the negatives with the wind chill and 20-30 mph wind with 40 mph gusts.  Don’t expect much passing in this one.  I’ll go with the team that can pound the rock and that is the Steelers.  A healthy dose of Rashard Mendenhall. Hard to go wrong with the under in cold weather with a chance of snow.

Prediction: Steelers 10 – Browns 6

Free Pick: Teaser: Steelers -2, Under 40.5 (Confidence: 2.5/5)

SEATTLE SEAHAKWS @ HOUSTON TEXANS -6

Texans are due for a win. They’re at home and the Seahawks D sucks. Time for Andre Johnson to have a big game. Texans don’t lose 5 straight. Should be close with the spread since the Texans can give up a lot of points too.  I still think they cover by 1-4 points.

Prediction: Texans 27 – Seahawks 20

Free Pick: Texans -6 (Confidence: 2.5/5)

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS -6.5

Vikings have been ridiculously strong at home, while the Bengals failed to cover against the Lions and lost to the Raiders the week before. Their momentum is waining. I like the Vikings here.

Prediction: Vikings 27 – Bengals 16

Free Pick: Vikings -6.5 (Confidence: 3/5)

DENVER BRONCOS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -7

For some reason, I just feel that the Broncos match up well with the Colts. I think the Colts struggle to dominate the Broncos, but I think its safe to bank on them to win this game. You can tease this one to a Colts in pick ‘em and can take the over 37 or under 54. Look for Brandon Marshall and the Broncos running game to play well, but for Peyton to ultimately outduel them.

Prediction: Colts 24 – Broncos 17

Free Pick: Any teaser combination should work here: Colts -0 or Broncos +14, Over 37 or Under 54

NEW YORK JETS -3 @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

We learned last week not to bet against home dogs, except when the home team has their 2 stars out like the Falcons and you can take the Eagles.  Pats, Vikings, Saints, Cowboys all road favorites — all lost. Do you bet against the home dog this week? Tough call. Bucs were flat on the road against the Panthers, but have had some success at home (beating the Packers). Sanchez is out for the Jets, Clemens is in. Who knows what that will mean. I’m skipping this one.

Free Pick: Scratch

BUFFALO BILLS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

The Chiefs were having some success at home (beating the Steelers), but were just blown out by Chargers and then the Broncos. The Bills are incredibly weak though. This is another game that I will just pass over entirely and not look back on.

Free Pick: Scratch

GREEN BAY PACKERS -3 @ CHICAGO BEARS

We learned last week not to bet against home dogs. To reiterate: Pats, Vikings, Saints, Cowboys all road favorites — all lost. I’m loving the Packers right now and the Bears are in a funk. They couldn’t even cover at home against the Rams. They put up 17 points on them. That’s weak. I’m going with the hot team despite the home-dog trend that we saw last week.

Prediction: Packers 24 – Bears 16

Free Pick: Packers -3 (Confidence: 3.5/5)

DETROIT LIONS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS -13.5

I don’t like high spreads. Lions covered the 13.5 they got last week on the road against the Bengals and I think they have a good chance of covering this one.  They’re still the Lions and their run defense blows, so great news if you have Ray Rice on your fantasy team. I think you see the Ravens win this one by 10, but they may win by the 14.  I’m anticipating a Ravens win by 31-17 or 27-17, it’s going to be on the bubble with the spread, so I’m staying away.

Prediction: Ravens 27 or 31 – Lions 17

Free Pick: Too Close To Call

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS -3

I had the Dolphins over the Panthers 2 weeks ago and they lost, I had the Patriots over the Dolphins and they won. Tough team to figure out.  They play strong at home, weak on the road. I also had the Texans over the Jags and the Jags won, but when I picked the Jags over the 49ers, the 49ers won. In other words, these two teams drive me crazy. The only way to play them is to take the home team.

Prediction: Jaguars 23 – Dolphins 20

Free Pick: Jaguars -3 (Confidence: 2/5)

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -10 @ ATLANTA FALCONS

No Matt Ryan and Michael Turner for the Falcons so look for the Saints to beet up the Falcons just like the Eagles did last week.

Prediction: Saints 31 – Falcons 10

Free Pick: Saints -10 (Confidence: 3.5/5)

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -13.5

Mr. Brady, how can you throw a pick to Vontae Davis in the end zone that could have gotten you the win and the cover? Weak sauce my friend, weak sauce. You’re certainly not looking like a 4-time Super Bowl winner, so hopefully your last two losses give you the fire in your belling to blow out the Panthers. I think you do see the Pats beat up out the Panthers.

Update: Game will be played in the snow and freezing weather, so the 14 points looks steep.  However, the Pats put up something like 59 points against the Titans whey they played in the snow.  I took this one off my list with the high spread and terrible conditions.

Prediction: Patriots 24 – Panthers 10

Free Pick: Patriots -13.5 (Confidence: 2/5)

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ TENNEESEE TITANS -13

The 1-11 Rams are 6-6 ATS this year. The books are loving them! Despite their 11.6 PPG, they still manage to cover! Unbelievable.  What’s even more impressive? They’re 6-2 ATS in their last 8. I pummeled the Rams for a lot of cash earlier this season, but when I lost a game or two against them, I stayed away from them for the rest of the season. When is the last time the Titans beat a team by more than 13 point? Well, it’s happened twice when they rocked the Bills and rocked the Jaguars, but it doesn’t happen often.  Everyone is thinking Chris Johnson will run for 450 yards and 4 TDs and that may very well happen, but beware of the Rams, they may be a spoiler for those banking on Titans -13. Matt Forte didn’t have a ridiculous game against the Rams. I think you can expect 120 yards for CJ and a TD or two. I think Rams can cover here.

Prediction: Titans 24 – Rams 13

Free Pick: Not Playing This, Just Giving You a Buyer Beware if you take the Titans

WASHINGTON REDSKINS -1 @ OAKLAND RAIDERS

I want to say take the Redskins, but east coast teams struggle out there. Eagles and Bengals have fallen victim to the Raiders in Oakland. That gives me enough reason to stay away here, but for the sake of calling this game, I’m going with the Redskins.

Prediction: Redskins 24 – Raiders 17

Free Pick: Redskins -1 (Confidence: 3/5)

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ DALLAS COWBOYS -3

Tough call here. I want to take the Chargers, but the Cowboys are a completely different team at home. My personal hatred the Cowboys and the fact that they lost to the Giants last week is affecting my judgment here, but I’ll take the field goal. The Chargers are coming on strong and they are focused on the playoffs as the Cowboys’ infamous DECEMBER WOES continue.

Prediction: Chargers 30 – Cowboys 27

Free Pick: Chargers +3 (Confidence: 2.5/5)

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ NEW YORK GIANTS -1

I’m hoping the Chargers can top the Cowboys so the Eagles can reclaim sole possession of the NFC East going into week 15. The Eagles beat the Giants earlier this season and beat  the Giants twice last year in the Meadowlands. That makes the Eagles streak against the Giants 3-0. I think they can make it 4.

Free Pick: I’m an Eagles fan, this one is up to you.

ARIZONA CARDINALS -3.5 @ SAN FRANSISCO 49ERS

I said HOME TEAM + MONDAY NIGHT last week and those who took the Packers earned back a little coin.  We learned about not betting against home dogs last week, but just because you see a home dog does not give you a reason to take them (See the Broncos last week over the Chiefs and of course, the Eagles over the Falcons). The Cardinals are playing great right now and the 49ers just aren’t up to par with them yet even though they beat them in week 1, but that was a long time ago.

Prediction: Cardinals 27 – 49ers 17

Free Pick: Cardinals -3 (Buy the half-point if you’re able to) (Confidence: 3/5)

TOP 5 SPREADS:

I don’t like this week’s card very much, but at least we don’t have to bet against many home dogs.

I didn’t put much thought into this order.  You’re going to get some hits and misses. I think you’ll get 3 winners out of that bunch, but I would obviously love 4 or 5.

1.) Saints -10 over FALCONS

1.) Packers -3 over BEARS

2.) VIKINGS -6.5 over Bengals

3.) TEXANS -6 over Seahawks

4.) Cardinals -3 over 49ERS

TEASERS:

1.) Saints -3 and Vikings +0.5

2.) Saints -3 and Colts

3.) Saints -3 and Ravens -6.5

4.) Chargers +10 and Packers +4