College Football Week 7 Predictions and Picks
Hopefully everyone was able to cash in on Wake Forest to get off to a good start to the betting weekend. When you have two evenly matched teams it doesn't hurt to take the points on the home team (especially in night games), especially as many as 7 points, and Wake ended up winning outright anyway. If you missed my week 6 NFL picks you can follow the link to get to those. Now on to some week 7 college football picks.
THE WEEK 7 COLLEGE SPREADS I LIKE:
Hawaii (6-0) -17.5 @ San Jose St. (3-3) - FRIDAY NIGHT GAME
San Jose St. was blown out been sub-par teams: Kansas St. (3-2), Stanford (2-3), and also by Arizona St. (6-0). Hawaii's high-powered offense should be able to put up points in bunches. San Jose has three straight wins, but against Idaho (1-5), Utah St. (0-6), and Cal Davis (2-4). Hawaii is averaging 53.8 PPG and allowing 21.8 PPG. San Jose St. is averaging 17.0 PPG and allowing 28.3 PPG. I'm taking the line at -16.5 just in case, but Hawaii should blow them out. Colt Brennan will show everyone why he is the nation's top college quarterback and Hawaii is out to make a statement on national TV. Also, Hawaii beat up on San Jose St. last year, 54-17.
Pick: Hawaii -16.5 Spread - Confidence 4/5
Update: Colt let us down in that game; so much for his phenominal accuracy - the chance of covering 17 points was impossible once he threw 4 interceptions, 1 for a touchdown, and then the special teams gave up a punt return for a touchdown as well. The Hawaii comeback was pretty incredible after being down 2 touchdowns with 4 minutes left to play. Colt ended up throwing for 545 yards and 4 TD's. Without those interceptions, this came would have been a blow out. Hawaii statistically dominated the first half, but with the turnovers, the game just got away from them. Sorry about that one; hopefully you can get em back later. I think the best play to make tomorrow is No. 4 Boston College -13.5 over the dismal Notre Dame. 85% of the betting public is taking Boston College. There are some other good matchups to choose from too, so you be the judge.
Boston College (6-0) -13.5 @ Notre Dame (1-5)
I guess the bookmakers gave Notre Dame too much credit after they were able to upset UCLA last week. Notre Dame is still a mess offensively; they had 140 yards of total offense in that game. Notre Dame can't run the ball to save their life and Boston College hasn't given up more than 69 yards on the ground all year long. I doubt Notre Dame will have more than 30 rushing yards in this game. Boston College should be able to embarrass them on Saturday. Notre Dame is a great team to bet against. They are 2-4 against-the-spread (ATS) and the only times they've covered are when they got 21 points against Purdue and UCLA and 4th ranked Boston College is much stronger than both those teams and only has to give up 13.5. BC's quarterback Matt Ryan should have a field day. Covers.com editor Jason Campbell will back me up on this one: he says take BC at -14. Boston College coach proclaims, "I promise you there will be absolutely no chance that Boston College will overlook Notre Dame. There will be zero chance of that."
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICK OF THE WEEK: Boston College -13.5 - Confidence 4/5
Update: Who would have thought an extra point would be the difference maker in this one. That stuff will drive you crazy. Losing by half a point because of a missed extra point: are you kidding me? I was between taking BC and South Florida... should have went with South Florida. At the end of the game I was screaming for a field goal kick, but I guess BC's coach didn't get the memo that the spread was 13.5.
Central Florida (3-2) @ South Florida (6-0) -11.5
South Florida is legit! They are especially good at home. Central Florida has one of the nation's best runningbacks in Kevin Smith, but West Virginia's rushing attack didn't seem to phase this South Florida team. I would buy a point and a half and take this line at South Florida -10.
Pick: South Florida -10 - Confidence 4/5
Connecticut (6-0) @ Virginia (5-1) -3
I'm taking Connecticut for real and like them a lot in this matchup. Virginia's wins have been close and they haven't blowing out teams like Connecticut has.
Pick: Connecticut +3 - Confidence 3/5
Alabama (4-2) -6 @ Ole Miss (2-4)
I'm feeling an Alabama beat down on Ole Miss. Alabama is averaging 30.7 PPG and giving up 20.8 PPG. Ole Miss is averaging 21.7 PPG and giving up 27.5 PPG.
Pick: Alabama -6 - Confidence 3/5
South Carolina (5-1) -7 @ North Carolina (2-4)
I like South Carolina in this matchup. South Carolina has two impressive wins on their resume this season: Georgia and Kentucky. The Gamecocks rank 11th in the league in both rushing (130.7 yards per game) and rush defense (193.8). But Spurrier is also wary of North Carolina, despite its 2-4 record. The Tar Heels are coming off a 33-27 win over Miami and three of their losses - to East Carolina, Virginia and Virginia Tech - have come by seven points or fewer.
Pick: South Carolina -6.5 Spread - Confidence 3/5
Wisconsin (5-1) @ Penn State (4-2) -7
7 points is a lot of points to give up when your facing a team that is as good as Wisconsin. Home field gives Penn State a huge advantage, but Wisconsin is definitely more than capable of beating Penn State. Penn State is without their star running back Austin Scott and their quarterback Anthony Morelli makes me nervous every time he drops back.
Pick: Wisconsin +7 - Confidence 3/5
THE REST OF THE WEEK 7 COLLEGE SPREADS:
Purdue (5-1) @ Michigan (4-2) -5
I wouldn't recommend betting on this game. I'm not too sure about Michigan, they've been a poor team to bet on (2-3 ATS). Purdue is definitely capable of steeling this game away from them, but Michigan has been hot, winning four straight. Purdue is a also very solid passing team, but if you can shut down their run, like Ohio St. did last week, you can beat them big. Purdue is averaging 39 PPG (mostly from very poor teams), while Michigan has 25, and both teams give up an average of 20. Purdue's defense isn't as strong as Michigan's and Michigan's stud at receiver Manningham might also be out. I doubt Purdue pulls off a win in the big house now that Michigan looks like they've gotten their act together.
Pick: Michigan -5 - Confidence 2/5
Georgia Tech (3-3) @ Miami (4-2) -2.5
Both teams run the ball well and both defenses do a great job stopping the run. This game should be a defensive tussle with either team capable of coming out on top. I would rather go with the under in this one. In the last 3 years 70% of Miami's games and 57% of Georgia Tech's games haven been under. If you want to take the game, I would go with Miami.
Pick: Miami -2.5 - Confidence 1/5
Pick: Georgia Tech-Miami Under 43 - Confidence 3/5
Virginia Tech (5-1) -14 @ Duke (1-5)
I'm tempted to take the points because Duke is 5-1 against the spread this year, while Virginia Tech is 1-4 against the spread. Duke has been able to hang with all the teams they've faced this year. I won't take the game, but if you were, I would say take the points.
Pick: Duke +14 Spread - Confidence 2/5
Louisville (3-3) @ Cincinnati (6-0) -10
Louisville's defense is a joke and they've lost to teams they shouldn't be losing to like Syracuse and Utah State. Cincinnati looks much better in this matchup, but is giving up 10 points to Brian Brohm a good idea? You be the judge; I wouldn't want to bet against him.
Pick: Louisville +10 - Confidence 2/5
LSU (6-0) -9 @ Kentucky (5-1)
There's been a lot of upsets lately for the top teams; you can't help but feel that LSU is due to get upset, which is why I'll stay away from this game even though I think LSU will win. They're on the road and Kentucky is playing great football this year, so there is upset written all over this one. 9 points is too much to give up in this game, but I think LSU will win straight-up.
Auburn (4-2) @ Arkansas (3-2) -3
Is Auburn for real after beating Florida in Gainesville? Will McFadden be able to run wild on Auburn? This should be an interesting game to watch, but a bad game to bet on.
THE WEEK 7 COLLEGE SPREADS I LIKE:
Hawaii (6-0) -17.5 @ San Jose St. (3-3) - FRIDAY NIGHT GAME
San Jose St. was blown out been sub-par teams: Kansas St. (3-2), Stanford (2-3), and also by Arizona St. (6-0). Hawaii's high-powered offense should be able to put up points in bunches. San Jose has three straight wins, but against Idaho (1-5), Utah St. (0-6), and Cal Davis (2-4). Hawaii is averaging 53.8 PPG and allowing 21.8 PPG. San Jose St. is averaging 17.0 PPG and allowing 28.3 PPG. I'm taking the line at -16.5 just in case, but Hawaii should blow them out. Colt Brennan will show everyone why he is the nation's top college quarterback and Hawaii is out to make a statement on national TV. Also, Hawaii beat up on San Jose St. last year, 54-17.
Pick: Hawaii -16.5 Spread - Confidence 4/5
Update: Colt let us down in that game; so much for his phenominal accuracy - the chance of covering 17 points was impossible once he threw 4 interceptions, 1 for a touchdown, and then the special teams gave up a punt return for a touchdown as well. The Hawaii comeback was pretty incredible after being down 2 touchdowns with 4 minutes left to play. Colt ended up throwing for 545 yards and 4 TD's. Without those interceptions, this came would have been a blow out. Hawaii statistically dominated the first half, but with the turnovers, the game just got away from them. Sorry about that one; hopefully you can get em back later. I think the best play to make tomorrow is No. 4 Boston College -13.5 over the dismal Notre Dame. 85% of the betting public is taking Boston College. There are some other good matchups to choose from too, so you be the judge.
Boston College (6-0) -13.5 @ Notre Dame (1-5)
I guess the bookmakers gave Notre Dame too much credit after they were able to upset UCLA last week. Notre Dame is still a mess offensively; they had 140 yards of total offense in that game. Notre Dame can't run the ball to save their life and Boston College hasn't given up more than 69 yards on the ground all year long. I doubt Notre Dame will have more than 30 rushing yards in this game. Boston College should be able to embarrass them on Saturday. Notre Dame is a great team to bet against. They are 2-4 against-the-spread (ATS) and the only times they've covered are when they got 21 points against Purdue and UCLA and 4th ranked Boston College is much stronger than both those teams and only has to give up 13.5. BC's quarterback Matt Ryan should have a field day. Covers.com editor Jason Campbell will back me up on this one: he says take BC at -14. Boston College coach proclaims, "I promise you there will be absolutely no chance that Boston College will overlook Notre Dame. There will be zero chance of that."
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICK OF THE WEEK: Boston College -13.5 - Confidence 4/5
Update: Who would have thought an extra point would be the difference maker in this one. That stuff will drive you crazy. Losing by half a point because of a missed extra point: are you kidding me? I was between taking BC and South Florida... should have went with South Florida. At the end of the game I was screaming for a field goal kick, but I guess BC's coach didn't get the memo that the spread was 13.5.
Central Florida (3-2) @ South Florida (6-0) -11.5
South Florida is legit! They are especially good at home. Central Florida has one of the nation's best runningbacks in Kevin Smith, but West Virginia's rushing attack didn't seem to phase this South Florida team. I would buy a point and a half and take this line at South Florida -10.
Pick: South Florida -10 - Confidence 4/5
Connecticut (6-0) @ Virginia (5-1) -3
I'm taking Connecticut for real and like them a lot in this matchup. Virginia's wins have been close and they haven't blowing out teams like Connecticut has.
Pick: Connecticut +3 - Confidence 3/5
Alabama (4-2) -6 @ Ole Miss (2-4)
I'm feeling an Alabama beat down on Ole Miss. Alabama is averaging 30.7 PPG and giving up 20.8 PPG. Ole Miss is averaging 21.7 PPG and giving up 27.5 PPG.
Pick: Alabama -6 - Confidence 3/5
South Carolina (5-1) -7 @ North Carolina (2-4)
I like South Carolina in this matchup. South Carolina has two impressive wins on their resume this season: Georgia and Kentucky. The Gamecocks rank 11th in the league in both rushing (130.7 yards per game) and rush defense (193.8). But Spurrier is also wary of North Carolina, despite its 2-4 record. The Tar Heels are coming off a 33-27 win over Miami and three of their losses - to East Carolina, Virginia and Virginia Tech - have come by seven points or fewer.
Pick: South Carolina -6.5 Spread - Confidence 3/5
Wisconsin (5-1) @ Penn State (4-2) -7
7 points is a lot of points to give up when your facing a team that is as good as Wisconsin. Home field gives Penn State a huge advantage, but Wisconsin is definitely more than capable of beating Penn State. Penn State is without their star running back Austin Scott and their quarterback Anthony Morelli makes me nervous every time he drops back.
Pick: Wisconsin +7 - Confidence 3/5
THE REST OF THE WEEK 7 COLLEGE SPREADS:
Purdue (5-1) @ Michigan (4-2) -5
I wouldn't recommend betting on this game. I'm not too sure about Michigan, they've been a poor team to bet on (2-3 ATS). Purdue is definitely capable of steeling this game away from them, but Michigan has been hot, winning four straight. Purdue is a also very solid passing team, but if you can shut down their run, like Ohio St. did last week, you can beat them big. Purdue is averaging 39 PPG (mostly from very poor teams), while Michigan has 25, and both teams give up an average of 20. Purdue's defense isn't as strong as Michigan's and Michigan's stud at receiver Manningham might also be out. I doubt Purdue pulls off a win in the big house now that Michigan looks like they've gotten their act together.
Pick: Michigan -5 - Confidence 2/5
Georgia Tech (3-3) @ Miami (4-2) -2.5
Both teams run the ball well and both defenses do a great job stopping the run. This game should be a defensive tussle with either team capable of coming out on top. I would rather go with the under in this one. In the last 3 years 70% of Miami's games and 57% of Georgia Tech's games haven been under. If you want to take the game, I would go with Miami.
Pick: Miami -2.5 - Confidence 1/5
Pick: Georgia Tech-Miami Under 43 - Confidence 3/5
Virginia Tech (5-1) -14 @ Duke (1-5)
I'm tempted to take the points because Duke is 5-1 against the spread this year, while Virginia Tech is 1-4 against the spread. Duke has been able to hang with all the teams they've faced this year. I won't take the game, but if you were, I would say take the points.
Pick: Duke +14 Spread - Confidence 2/5
Louisville (3-3) @ Cincinnati (6-0) -10
Louisville's defense is a joke and they've lost to teams they shouldn't be losing to like Syracuse and Utah State. Cincinnati looks much better in this matchup, but is giving up 10 points to Brian Brohm a good idea? You be the judge; I wouldn't want to bet against him.
Pick: Louisville +10 - Confidence 2/5
LSU (6-0) -9 @ Kentucky (5-1)
There's been a lot of upsets lately for the top teams; you can't help but feel that LSU is due to get upset, which is why I'll stay away from this game even though I think LSU will win. They're on the road and Kentucky is playing great football this year, so there is upset written all over this one. 9 points is too much to give up in this game, but I think LSU will win straight-up.
Auburn (4-2) @ Arkansas (3-2) -3
Is Auburn for real after beating Florida in Gainesville? Will McFadden be able to run wild on Auburn? This should be an interesting game to watch, but a bad game to bet on.
