I will have a write for probably all of the bowl games and recommendations.

Wyoming vs Fresno State (-11): for 1 unit. – This Fresno State has played a brutal schedule playing some of the toughest teams in the nation including Cincinnati, Boise State, and a strong Wisconsin team. However, they did lose all three of those games. Plus you factor in the travel schedule and they went from Cincinnati to Hawaii, which had to be grueling on this squad. I think the time off will be a real difference here for Fresno State. Down the stretch this team just looked tired. I love that they have had a couple weeks to rest and get focused for the Bowl game. Another important factor is that most of Fresno State’s players have been in a bowl game before so they will be ready for the media and extra hype and attention that comes with playing in these games. Wyoming is probably one the best college stories of the year. The way they got things turned around and are now in a bowl game is huge. However, that could be their downfall. They may just be happy to be there instead of ready to play one of the best opponents they have played all year long. Wyoming has also been burned by the run all year long and Fresno State has run the ball very well against almost everyone they have played. Lay the points here with Fresno State as they win going away 44-24. I also recommend playing the OVER. L for 1.1 units

Central Florida (+3) vs Rutgers for 1 unit. Important to note that this game is being played only 2 hours away from the Central Florida campus so look for the Golden Knights to have some homefield advantage. Rutgers has been a strong squad, but I just see a real let down factor here. With three games to go Rutgers looked to be gearing up for a run at a lot bigger bowl game then they are playing in now, but after dropping 2 of their last 3 they are playing in a game that I feel will be difficult for them to be that excited about. Central Florida has the ability to cause turnovers as well and that will be the difference in this game. Rutgers freshman QB has been prone to interceptions and the CBs from Central Florida should be able to come up with a couple picks as Rutgers really struggled down the stretch. Take the points with Central Florida as they get the win outright. L for 1.1 unit

3) Middle Tennessee State vs. Southern Miss (-3.5) for 2 units. My source of power ratings have Southern Miss favored by 7 to 10 points so I think this line is very low. MTST finished the season playing great football, winning and covering their last six. However, not one of those teams is playing in a bowl game. On the other, Southern Miss went 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS and 5 of those 6 teams are playing in bowl games. Therefore strength of schedule alone makes Southern Miss a strong play. This game does come down to QB play though. Both are stepping up in class in this effort as Young will face the Sun Belt’s top defense in MTST, but he has handled himself well only throwing one interception in196 passes and is completing well over 50% of his passes. Dasher averages almost 300 yards in total offense a game, so it is of utmost importance that Southern Miss finds a way to contain him. If they do then they win this game easily. Lay the points with Southern Miss as they win 31-17. L for 2.2 units

4) BYU (+2.5) vs Oregon State for 1 unit. I honestly believe this will be the best bowl game of the year. You have two great offenses that should both put up a bunch of points. Both of these QBs have had outstanding years. Max Hall should be able to consistently hookup with his tight end Pitta, plus they have a balanced running game as Unga ran for over 1,000 yards this year. The key loss of CB Tim Clark will allow BYU to really attack that secondary. The key to this game will be BYU’s ability to prevent the big play by OSU either on special teams or through the air on offense. Secondly, despite OSU’s team saying differently, you have to question their motivation for this game. After losing to Oregon and losing out on the chance to play in a BCS bowl game, and now playing in a meaningless bowl before Christmas. BYU has been to this same bowl game for the past four years and return here to Las Vegas after a disappointing loss last year against Arizona. While this may not have been the bowl the were thinking of originally when the season began you have to believe they have some unfinished business to resolve from last year. I think BYU has a great chance of winning this game outright. W for 1 unit

5) SMU vs Nevada UNDER 72.5 for 1 unit. W for 1 unit

6) Marshall vs Ohio (-3) for 1 unit L for 1.1 units

7) Pittsburgh vs North Carolina (+2.5) for 1 unit W for 1 unit

8) USC vs Boston College (+7.5) for 1 unit. L for 1.1 units

9) Air Force (+4.5) vs Houston for 2 units. GET THIS EARLY THE LINE WILL MOVE IN FAVOR OF AF.

10) Texas A&M vs Georgia OVER 66.5 for 1 unit. Neither of these teams have play defense very well especially A&M, which has really struggled playing D on the road, almost 500 yards per contest on the road. As bad as their D has been the offense has almost been equally as talented, going for almost 400 yards a contest and 30 points. Look for both of these offenses to come to play tonight. I just don’t see, no matter how well these defenses play, the defenses being able to control these balanced and talented offenses. Play the OVER. Recommended play on Georgia -6.5. L for 1.1 units

11) UCLA vs Temple (+4) for 1 unit. L for 1.1 units

12) Wisconsin (+3) vs Miami FL for 1 unit. W for 1 unit

13) Bowling Green (-2) vs Idaho for 2 units.

14) Nebraska (PK) vs Arizona for 1 unit.

15) Navy vs Missouri (-6.5) for 1 unit.

16) Bowling Green/Idaho UNDER 68 for 1 unit.

17) Nebraska/Arizona OVER 40 for 1 unit.

More picks posted later.

Where has this college football season gone? We have had our share of winners and losers and our share of hot streaks and cold streaks. Last week I put you on two huge winners with Auburn and Connecticut and several other smaller wins to run our profit up to 4.7 units. This college weekend is huge and for many it will determine who is playing in big bowl games and who will be disappointed about playing in some other bowl game. As a note, for all us bettors this weekend is huge. I usually don’t do this, but I am going to give you some great insight. I guarantee there will be several games this weekend where the game comes down to the final play or final series and whoever wins goes on to a big bowl game and the other goes on to some bowl they don’t want to be in. That is key, remember Alabama last year? After losing to Florida they had to play in a bowl game verse Utah that they didn’t want to be in and it cost them. That situation will happen again this year: close game, loser ends up in a meaningless bowl, the loser is favored, and then loses outright. We will need to find those plays on be on the right side.
Thursday Night:

Oregon State at Oregon (-10) for 1 unit. I agree with everything VM said, plus I love the home field advantage in this contest. Oregon is a different team at home and that will be clearly evident tonight as they win by 3 touchdowns over OSU.

LOCK OF THE YEAR #5: Texas (-14) vs Nebraska for 2 units: My Lock of the Year release record is currently at 3-1 and will be without a doubt at 4-1 by the end of Saturday night. Texas wins this game by 4 touchdowns. First off, lets look at where this game is being played, IN TEXAS at the Cowboys stadium. Therefore, the home field advantage goes lopsidedly to Texas. Secondly, Colt McCoy has been sick lately and has moved into front runner position for the Heisman. He can seal up that trophy with a superstar display on Saturday night. Thirdly, McCoy’s stock in the draft will also sharply rise with a strong performance when he and Texas are on center stage on Saturday night.  Statistically, Texas has the better defense, even though Nebraska’s D is no slouch. Nebraska’s offense has really struggled as of late and they will continue to struggle in this spot. They managed to only score 28 against the extremely weak Colorado Buffaloes. Plus, you know the Texas D was somewhat embarrassed by their weak performance against A&M last week so look for them to come out very focused this week. Finally, if Texas wins they play for the National Title, so I don’t see any let down for them in front of this Texas favored crowd. Texas wins in a blowout 49-14.

3) S.Florida/UCONN OVER 51 for 1 unit

4) West Virginia at Rutgers (-2) for 1 unit

5) Cincinnati at Pitt (+2) for 1 unit

6) Wisconsin at Hawaii (+12) for 1 unit

More plays posted later tonight.

Good Luck.

1.) Pac 10 Teaser — USC over Arizona, Cal over WASHINGTON — USC and Cal are 7-point favorites, I’ll pair those together and take them at pick ‘em games.

2.) Cincinnati -2 over PITTSBURGH — I’ll take advantage of the low spread here. Although Pittsburgh has a quality defense and a running game that will move the ball on Cincy, Cincinnati has one of the best offenses in football and should just outscore Pittsburgh in this one.

3.) Florida -5.5 over ALABAMA — Should be a great game. I say Florida wins by 7-10. Better offense, better defense. Alabama just hasn’t done enough to impress me like Florida has. Plus, Tim Tebow loves Jesus too much for him to lose. Will be really close with the spread, but I’ll take the Gators.

OREGON STATE BEAVERS @ OREGON DUCKS -10

Oregon has been unstoppable, but Oregon State has been extremely impressive as well. Going into this season, I don’t think any of us expected Oregon State to be an 8-3 team. These teams stats are practically identical on both sides of the ball.

Both teams resumes are extremely impressive. Oregon State beat UCLA by 7, Stanford by 10, and @Arizona State by 11. Oregon State’s losses are to Cincinnati by 10, Arizona by 5, and @USC by 6. Oregon has impressive wins over Arizone State by 23, USC by 27, Cal by 39.  Their 2 losses come via Boise State in week 1 where they lost 19-8 and 3 weeks ago @Stanford by 9.

When Oregon plays at home, they are dominant. They are 6-0 at home.  The scores of their last two home games, 44-21 and 47-20, and that was to Arizona State and USC  respectively, two high quality teams. Oregon State has proven that they can play on the road, but Oregon has shown that they are a dominant football team at home. When you can beat USC 47-20, you have one hell of a football team. However, Oregon State hung in there @USC, losing by the score of 42-36.

I think the home field is the difference in this one, and I think the Ducks win this one, but I do not like the spread at +10 and feel that Oregon State has a good chance of covering, but also has the chance of getting beat by 2 TDs.  This is why I want to tease this one. You could take the Beavers at +17, but I still think you go with the dominant Oregon home team at -3.

The over under is set at 62, which is borderline.  They way Oregon and Oregon State have been playing, you can expect a lot of scoring.  I would likely tease this down to 55 and take the over rather than teasing it up to 69 and taking the under.  The ND/Standford over/under was 72.5 and I thought that was going under, but the over hit by the 3rd quarter.  Oregon averages 37.7 PPG, while Oregon State averages 32.4 PPG, and neither has a tremendous defense, each giving up an average of more than 22 points.  Oregon State is slightly better against the run though, which is the strength of this Oregon team.  On the other hand, Oregon has the better pass defense, which is the strength of the Oregon State.

4/4 experts at Covers.com like the over in this one and 4/6 are favoring Oregon State +10. Last year when these teams played, Oregon beat Oregon State 65-38 and the last 7 games between these two teams have all gone over.

Prediction: Oregon 41 – Oregon State 34

Thursday’s Play: 7-point teaser: Oregon -3, Over 55 (Confidence: 3/5)

Note: The +17 on Oregon State sounds intriguing, but I think you see Oregon come out on top here. They blew out Oregon State last year and I don’t see why this year should be different. Oregon is capable of winning by 20, but I think a 6-7 point win is more realistic.

Right now Florida vs. Florida State is underway. Brandon has FSU at +24.5, I have them at +32/Over 49. So far Florida has a 10-0 lead going into the 2nd quarter.  I’ll need the pace to pick up to get that over, but there’s still a lot of football left to play.

Tonight, I am on board with the teasers of Georgia Tech -0.5/Over 50 and Navy -2.5/Under 61.5.

Brandon has added 3 more picks:

1.) Arizona at Arizona State (+3.5) for 1 unit. (W)

2.) New Mexico Sate (+11) at San Jose State for 1 unit. (W)

3.) Utah State at Idaho (-3) for 1 unit. (L)

Good luck!

Tomorrow, I like this schedule:

12:00 — UCONN -13.5 over Syracuse — (W) — The streak continues to 11-0!

3:35 — Teaser: FSU +32, Over 49 over Florida — (L) — “Ya coulda had ‘em Mav, you coulda had ‘em.” FSU left a few points off the board that could have had the over hit with the +32. Feeling good about GT.

8:05 — Teaser: Georgia Tech -0.5, Over 50 over Georgia — (L) — Of course QB Nesbitt gets injured in the 1st quarter. Fortunately, comes back into the game, but not anywhere close to being 100%. While he’s out, his backup throws an INT that leads to 7 by Georgia. GT had a chance to win the game down by 6 with 3 minutes left, but a dropped ball on 4th down ends the game for them.

10:35 — Teaser: Navy -2.5 Under 61.5 over Hawaii — (L) — We had a hell of a run, but had to give some of it back. Should have been at least 2-2 today, but the GT game was a bad beat due to Nesbitt’s injury and FSU game was close, just needed a FG and it didn’t matter what team it was.

Brandon has more Week 13 college plays

Here’s a look at week 12 in the NFL

My favorite play Sunday — Teaser: Chargers -6.5, Vikings -3.5 — (W)

Only spread that I like straight up: Miami -3 over Buffalo.

There’s tons of other teaser ideas for individual games.

WEEKLY RECAP: Hit 3 teasers on Thursday (GB/UNDER, DAL/UNDER, GB/DAL), hit Brandon’s Thanksgiving Special (Texas A&M +21), hit Rutgers -3 at 11:00, hit Brandon’s Game of the Year #4 at 2:30 (Auburn +10), hit 7:00 teaser (PITT +7/UNDER), and now looking to add another W with Boise State -6.5, over 63 at 10:00. I’m 7-0 in my last 7 games since Thanksgiving.  Seven and O! The teasers have been working like a charm.

I just can’t get enough football during the long Thanksgiving weekend. Can you tell with the full write ups?

GEORGIA BULLDOGS @ GEORGIA TECH BULLDOGS -7.5

I’ve been eying up this game all week and Georgia Tech -7.5 is just screaming out at me. Why do I like Georgia Tech so much? Their QB Josh Nesbitt is probably the best running QB in the NCAA right now with 1,418 passing yards, 8 passing TDs, 847 rushing yards, and 14 TDs. GT is also 7-1 ATS in their last 8 game and I’ve been riding them throughout that streak.

GT (7-1) is facing a 5-4 Georgia team that averages 27.5 PPG and allows 26.6 PPG, compared to GT’s 36 PPG and 23.5 PPG allowed.  GT’s offense averages just about 100 more yards of offense per game.  Although Georgia just gives up an average of 327 yards per game overall, they’ve been awful on the road, surrendering 390 yards per game and 30 PPG. I like Georgia Tech in this one since Georgia will give up a lot of points and I don’t think they have an answer for Georgia Tech’s triple option. GT’s offense has been stupid good lately and I expect them to run all over UGA.

I think you’re safe taking Georgia Tech -7.5, but if you want to play it a bit safer, I think you can do a 7-point teaser with Georgia Tech -0.5 and take the over 50 — not a lot of points for these offenses to score and these defenses give up a lot of points. Georgia Tech won this battle 45-42 last season and that’s when Georgia had their weapons (Matthew Stafford, Knowshon Moreno, and Mohammed Massaquoi), so I think you see GT win it again in convincing fashion.

7/8 experts at Covers.com like Georgia Tech -7.5 and 3/4 experts like the Over.

Prediction: Georgia Tech 38 – Georgia 27

Free Pick: Georgia Tech -7.5 (Confidence: 2.5/5), 7-point Teaser Georgia Tech -0.5, Over 50 (Confidence: 3.5/5) (L)

Then Brandon’s Game of the Year #4 hit, boosting his “game of the year” record to 3-1.  I was stunned myself when I saw that as his game of the year, but he gave me a hell of an explanation, so I didn’t second guess his judgment and jumped on Auburn +10 parlayed with the under in that game, which pushed, but I still got to take down the Auburn +10.  After the 11:00 game, we hit the 2:30 game. STAMP!

At the 7:00 spot we have Pittsburgh at WVU.  I’m making a small play on a teaser of Pitt +7 and the Under 55.  I’m expecting a tight defensive game.  I don’t want to make it too big with Pitt on the road, but I think they come out on top in this one.  STAMP!

Following the 7:00 game, we have Boise State and Nevada kicking off at 10:00.  Let’s get to the pick.

NEVADA WOLFPACK @ BOISE STATE BRONCOS -13.5

The over/under for this one is set at 70, so like any Boise State game, expect to see a lot of scoring. Boise averaged 44 PPG, while Nevada averages 41 PPG. Boise State gives up 17.3 PPG, while Nevada gives up 25.6 PPG.

Nevada’s offense has been utterly ridiculous all season long. They’re averaging 534 yards per game, more than 70 yards per game than Boise’s average of 456 yards. Nevada does it running the ball though, with a ridiculous 373 yards per game on the ground on just 161 yards per game with the pass.  Boise State has a much more balanced attack.

Nevada’s defense gives up a 100 more yards per game than Boise’s defense does. What’s really impressive about Boise State is how their defense has played at home, allowing just 11.6 PPG at home, and giving up just 79.6 yards per game while at home for a ridiculous 2.9 yards per rushing attempt allowed.

Boise State won this one 41-34 last year as a 6.5-point favorite. In the season before that, Boise State won 69-67 when they were favored by 25!

A look at some common opponents:

Hawaii: Navada beat them 31-21, Boise State beat them 54-9

Fresno State: Nevada beat them 52-14, Boise State beat them 51-34

San Jose State: Nevada beat them 52-14, Boise State beat them 62-7

Idaho: Nevada beat them 70-45, Boise State beat them 63-25

Utah State: Nevada beat them 35-32, Boise State beat them 52-21

The power of these offenses is just incredible. This one looks to be just one TD after another.  It’s tough to get a good read on what can happen on this game. No one has even been able to stop Nevada’s rushing game, so what happens when they face a Boise State team that has the ability to slow that running game?

10/14 experts at Covers.com like the Over and 14/17 like Boise State -13.5. Boise State is 8-3 ATS while Nevada is 6-5 ATS (4-1 in their last 5). The one reason I like Boise here is because their QB Kellen Moore has thrown 33 TDs and just 3 INTs compared to Nevada’s Colin Kaepernick who has 16 TDs and 5 INTs. However, Kaepernick brings an elusive running game to his arsenal to keep defenses on their toes. 13.5 points is pretty steep against an offense that has shown no signs of slowing down. Nevada has also proven that they can hang with Boise State the last two years.

Nevada has only proven they can beat up on the scrub teams of the WAC. Nevada’s defense is still horrendous and with Boise at home, I think you’ll see them coming out firing and grab an early lead while turning the reigns over to their defense who will have one mission: contain Kaepernick and stop Nevada’s running game. The 13.5 seems steep to me, especially since these games have been so close in the past, so I think you tease this one down to Boise State -6.5 and take the over 63. In the end, I think you see Boise outscore Nevada anywhere from 7-21 points.

Prediction: Boise State 45 – Nevada 34

Free Pick: 7-Point Teaser Boise State -6.5, Over 63 (Confidence: 2.5/5) (W)

Tonight we are treated to the Backyard Brawl at 7:00 on ESPN.  Pittsburgh seeks to get their 10th win of the season and secure a spot in a BCS Standings if they are able to get a win.  A lot of people like the Panthers in this one due to the low spread and I think that is the play to make in this one, but I’m always hesitant to bet on the road team in a big rivalry game.  That’s mostly because I attended this game in 2003 when WVU waxed Pitt 54-31.  2003 was a long time ago though!  Pittsburgh has won this battle the last two years.  Last year they won the game in Pittsburgh 19-15 and the year before that Pitt won 13-9 when it was played in West Virginia.  That is probably why so many people like the under 48.5 in this game.

Both teams bread and butter is their running game.  That is how they win football games.  However, on the other side of the ball, each of these team’s strength is their rushing defense.  Due to that factor, I think you’ll see a lot of stops on third down, which will lead to more punting and less scoring, which makes the under 48.5 looks like the play to make there.  Both of these teams can score though.  Pitt averages 33.8 PPG and WVU averages 27.6 PPG, which is why you’re seeing a high over/under for this game.  The defenses allow a combined 38.2 points though.  Pitts gives up an average of 17.6 PPG, while WVU gives up an average of 21.2.  Each of these teams’ last two games have gone under.  6/9 of Pitt’s games have gones under and 4/9 of WVU’s games have gone under.

Based on how these these teams are playing defense, I like the under.  WVU held the high-scoring Cincinnati offense to a mere 24 points last week, and that was on the road.  Very impressive performance from WVU last week.  Pitt has also held their opponent to less than 24 points in their last 6 games.  With WVU allowing just 120 rushing yards per game and Pitt allowing just 100 rushing yards per game, I think that bodes well for the under here.  Noel Devine is also playing a bit banged up for WVU.  But you also have to keep in mind that you have two offenses that can score points very, very quickly, so if there are some quick scores or even a kickoff return for a TD, that over may end up hitting.

8/11 experts at Covers.com are picking the under and 9/12 are taking Pittsburgh.

I’m expecting this game to be a tight, defensive tussle.  I think Pitt wins in a close one, just a couple points shy of the over.  Would a 31-28 shootout surprise me? No. But the facts tell me to expect more defense in this one.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 24 – West Virginia 20

Free Picks: Pittsburgh (Confidence: 2.5/5) (L), Under 48.5 (Confidence: 3/5) (W), 7-Point Teaser: Pittsburgh +7, Under 55 (Confidence: 3.5/5) (W)

Update: I’m playing the teaser here. The spread moved to a pick ‘em, so I took the liberty of taking Pitt starting the game with the 7-0 lead (Pitt +7) and counting on under 55 points.

We start football today at 11:00 and the game that I’ve been eying up all week is Rutgers -3. The spread is so low, it made me question whether this is a trap game. The spread is low because their stud WR Tim Brown is questionable and their kicker is also out (could affect some field goals and field position, which is kind of a big deal).

Rutgers also lost last week to a weak Syracuse team 31-13. As Lucky Lester likes to point out, the theme of the year is that solid teams usually bounce back after a poor performance.  I have faith in Tom Savage and that Rutgers running attack against a 4-7 team that gives up an average of 25.5 PPG and scores just 18.5 PPG.

Rutgers blanked South Florida 31-0 prior to the Syracuse loss, they beat a solid UCONN team, they beat up on Maryland, and they hung in their with #10 Pittsburgh.  Louisville isn’t even close to good.  They haven’t beaten any quality teams and their sole division win comes by a 10-9 victory over Syracuse. The Louisville D has a hard time stopping anyone.  They gave up 34 to South Florida, 41 to Cincinnatti, 35 to Pittsburgh, and 38 to UCONN.  Their offense hasn’t really shown up either.

If WR Tim Brown is out, I expect this one to be fairly close throughout the game, but I’m on board with Rutgers.  I would bank on a rebound by Rutgers and I look to take advantage of a low spread.

Prediction: Rutgers 24 – Louisville 17

Free Pick: Rutgers -3 (Confidence: 2.5/5) (W)