College Football Picks

Not only was Thursday a hell of a day, but we’ve gotten off to a great start again today.  We started off at 11:00 with a Rutgers pick that set the table for the rest of the day.  Rutgers cruised over Louisville 34-13 and we only had to give up 3 points.  I hope you capitalized off that pick. STAMP!

Then Brandon’s Game of the Year #4 hit, boosting his “game of the year” record to 3-1.  I was stunned myself when I saw that as his game of the year, but he gave me a hell of an explanation, so I didn’t second guess his judgment and jumped on Auburn +10 parlayed with the under in that game, which pushed, but I still got to take down the Auburn +10.  After the 11:00 game, we hit the 2:30 game. STAMP!

At the 7:00 spot we have Pittsburgh at WVU.  I’m making a small play on a teaser of Pitt +7 and the Under 55.  I’m expecting a tight defensive game.  I don’t want to make it too big with Pitt on the road, but I think they come out on top in this one.  STAMP!

Following the 7:00 game, we have Boise State and Nevada kicking off at 10:00.  Let’s get to the pick.

NEVADA WOLFPACK @ BOISE STATE BRONCOS -13.5

The over/under for this one is set at 70, so like any Boise State game, expect to see a lot of scoring. Boise averaged 44 PPG, while Nevada averages 41 PPG. Boise State gives up 17.3 PPG, while Nevada gives up 25.6 PPG.

Nevada’s offense has been utterly ridiculous all season long. They’re averaging 534 yards per game, more than 70 yards per game than Boise’s average of 456 yards. Nevada does it running the ball though, with a ridiculous 373 yards per game on the ground on just 161 yards per game with the pass.  Boise State has a much more balanced attack.

Nevada’s defense gives up a 100 more yards per game than Boise’s defense does. What’s really impressive about Boise State is how their defense has played at home, allowing just 11.6 PPG at home, and giving up just 79.6 yards per game while at home for a ridiculous 2.9 yards per rushing attempt allowed.

Boise State won this one 41-34 last year as a 6.5-point favorite. In the season before that, Boise State won 69-67 when they were favored by 25!

A look at some common opponents:

Hawaii: Navada beat them 31-21, Boise State beat them 54-9

Fresno State: Nevada beat them 52-14, Boise State beat them 51-34

San Jose State: Nevada beat them 52-14, Boise State beat them 62-7

Idaho: Nevada beat them 70-45, Boise State beat them 63-25

Utah State: Nevada beat them 35-32, Boise State beat them 52-21

The power of these offenses is just incredible. This one looks to be just one TD after another.  It’s tough to get a good read on what can happen on this game. No one has even been able to stop Nevada’s rushing game, so what happens when they face a Boise State team that has the ability to slow that running game?

10/14 experts at Covers.com like the Over and 14/17 like Boise State -13.5. Boise State is 8-3 ATS while Nevada is 6-5 ATS (4-1 in their last 5). The one reason I like Boise here is because their QB Kellen Moore has thrown 33 TDs and just 3 INTs compared to Nevada’s Colin Kaepernick who has 16 TDs and 5 INTs. However, Kaepernick brings an elusive running game to his arsenal to keep defenses on their toes. 13.5 points is pretty steep against an offense that has shown no signs of slowing down. Nevada has also proven that they can hang with Boise State the last two years.

Nevada has only proven they can beat up on the scrub teams of the WAC. Nevada’s defense is still horrendous and with Boise at home, I think you’ll see them coming out firing and grab an early lead while turning the reigns over to their defense who will have one mission: contain Kaepernick and stop Nevada’s running game. The 13.5 seems steep to me, especially since these games have been so close in the past, so I think you tease this one down to Boise State -6.5 and take the over 63. In the end, I think you see Boise outscore Nevada anywhere from 7-21 points.

Prediction: Boise State 45 – Nevada 34

Free Pick: 7-Point Teaser Boise State -6.5, Over 63 (Confidence: 2.5/5) (W)

PITTSBURGH PANTHERS @ WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS

Tonight we are treated to the Backyard Brawl at 7:00 on ESPN.  Pittsburgh seeks to get their 10th win of the season and secure a spot in a BCS Standings if they are able to get a win.  A lot of people like the Panthers in this one due to the low spread and I think that is the play to make in this one, but I’m always hesitant to bet on the road team in a big rivalry game.  That’s mostly because I attended this game in 2003 when WVU waxed Pitt 54-31.  2003 was a long time ago though!  Pittsburgh has won this battle the last two years.  Last year they won the game in Pittsburgh 19-15 and the year before that Pitt won 13-9 when it was played in West Virginia.  That is probably why so many people like the under 48.5 in this game.

Both teams bread and butter is their running game.  That is how they win football games.  However, on the other side of the ball, each of these team’s strength is their rushing defense.  Due to that factor, I think you’ll see a lot of stops on third down, which will lead to more punting and less scoring, which makes the under 48.5 looks like the play to make there.  Both of these teams can score though.  Pitt averages 33.8 PPG and WVU averages 27.6 PPG, which is why you’re seeing a high over/under for this game.  The defenses allow a combined 38.2 points though.  Pitts gives up an average of 17.6 PPG, while WVU gives up an average of 21.2.  Each of these teams’ last two games have gone under.  6/9 of Pitt’s games have gones under and 4/9 of WVU’s games have gone under.

Based on how these these teams are playing defense, I like the under.  WVU held the high-scoring Cincinnati offense to a mere 24 points last week, and that was on the road.  Very impressive performance from WVU last week.  Pitt has also held their opponent to less than 24 points in their last 6 games.  With WVU allowing just 120 rushing yards per game and Pitt allowing just 100 rushing yards per game, I think that bodes well for the under here.  Noel Devine is also playing a bit banged up for WVU.  But you also have to keep in mind that you have two offenses that can score points very, very quickly, so if there are some quick scores or even a kickoff return for a TD, that over may end up hitting.

8/11 experts at Covers.com are picking the under and 9/12 are taking Pittsburgh.

I’m expecting this game to be a tight, defensive tussle.  I think Pitt wins in a close one, just a couple points shy of the over.  Would a 31-28 shootout surprise me? No. But the facts tell me to expect more defense in this one.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 24 – West Virginia 20

Free Picks: Pittsburgh (Confidence: 2.5/5) (L), Under 48.5 (Confidence: 3/5) (W), 7-Point Teaser: Pittsburgh +7, Under 55 (Confidence: 3.5/5) (W)

Update: I’m playing the teaser here. The spread moved to a pick ‘em, so I took the liberty of taking Pitt starting the game with the 7-0 lead (Pitt +7) and counting on under 55 points.

RUTGERS SCARLETT KNIGHTS -3 @ LOUISVILLE CARDINALS

We start football today at 11:00 and the game that I’ve been eying up all week is Rutgers -3. The spread is so low, it made me question whether this is a trap game. The spread is low because their stud WR Tim Brown is questionable and their kicker is also out (could affect some field goals and field position, which is kind of a big deal).

Rutgers also lost last week to a weak Syracuse team 31-13. As Lucky Lester likes to point out, the theme of the year is that solid teams usually bounce back after a poor performance.  I have faith in Tom Savage and that Rutgers running attack against a 4-7 team that gives up an average of 25.5 PPG and scores just 18.5 PPG.

Rutgers blanked South Florida 31-0 prior to the Syracuse loss, they beat a solid UCONN team, they beat up on Maryland, and they hung in their with #10 Pittsburgh.  Louisville isn’t even close to good.  They haven’t beaten any quality teams and their sole division win comes by a 10-9 victory over Syracuse. The Louisville D has a hard time stopping anyone.  They gave up 34 to South Florida, 41 to Cincinnatti, 35 to Pittsburgh, and 38 to UCONN.  Their offense hasn’t really shown up either.

If WR Tim Brown is out, I expect this one to be fairly close throughout the game, but I’m on board with Rutgers.  I would bank on a rebound by Rutgers and I look to take advantage of a low spread.

Prediction: Rutgers 24 – Louisville 17

Free Pick: Rutgers -3 (Confidence: 2.5/5) (W)

Overall Profit 1.3 units

Back on track last week, going 3-2 for 0.8 units of profit. Really like a few games this week, starting with play on Tuesday night. I am also releasing my fourth play of the year this week on Auburn.

1.) Ball State at Western Michigan (-7) FIRST HALF for 1 unit. L for 1.1 units

2.) GAME OF THE YEAR RELEASE #4: Alabama at Auburn (+10.5) for 2 units.  There are more than several reasons to love Auburn in this spot besides the fact that I am saying they will cover. First, one of the best bets so far this year in both college and the nfl is home dogs off a bye week. Auburn has been a totally different ball club at home this year. They are 6-1 straight up and 4-2 ATS at home this year. Their defense has not been the Auburn defense of old, but this Bama squad’s offense is poor. They have looked good against very weak teams, but not very good against average defenses. If there was ever a good spot for this Auburn defense to shine it would be here. This also sets up as a trap game for Alabama. Everyone is assuming they are playing Florida in the SEC Championship game to determine who plays for the National Title. Therefore, this is any easy look-ahead game for Bama. I really like this spot for Auburn and think they have a legitimate shot to pull the upset. Game of the Year Winner #3. W for 2 units. (I am 3-1 on GOY releases!)

3.) THANKSGIVING SPECIAL: Texas at Texas A&M (+21) for 1 unit. W for 1 unit.

4.) North Carolina at NC State (+6.5) for 1 unit. Another upset alert! W for 1 unit.

5.) Florida State (+24.5) at Florida for 1 unit. L for 1.1 unit.

6.) Syracuse at Connecticut (-13.5) for 2 units. Blowout special. They win by 4TDs. W for 2 units.

7.) Wake Forest at Duke (+4.5) for 1 unit. L for 1.1 unit.

8.) Missouri (-3) at Kansas for 1 unit. L for 1.1 unit.

9.) Arizona at Arizona State (+3.5) for 1 unit. W for 1 unit.

10.) New Mexico Sate (+11) at San Jose State for 1 unit.

11.) Utah State at Idaho (-3) for 1 unit.

Honestly, I think go 7-0 with the rest of the plays for this week. Absolutely in love with this card.

Other games released later.

I don’t like that 6/7 of my picks are road teams, but hell, I like picking proven winners over lousy teams and I think the spreads are pretty favorable.  I usually leave the college games up to Brandon, but I like to post up a few more picks for you to consider on Saturday.  I’ve faired pretty well in college football.  I don’t know my exact record, but I feel that I’m right in the 57-62% area ATS.

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BRANDON’S WEEK 11 PICKS

MY WEEK 10 NFL PICKS

RANKED BY SEMI-STRENGTH:

1.) Kentucky -3 over VANDERBILT — This one looks like an easy winner to me.  Kentucky (5-4) averages 27.1 PPG to Vandy’s (2-8) 16.7 PPG. 10/13 Covers.com experts agree. (W)

2.) Boston College -4 over VIRGINIA — BC has covered their last 5/6. UVA was rolled over by Miami, GT, and Duke in their last 3 games.  I think they get rolled over again and the spread is pretty favorable. (P)

3.) Houston -4 over CENTRAL FLORIDA — Houston has been involved in crazy games lately.  Winning 46-45 and 53-50 in their last two contests.  They’ll just flat-out outscore you.  Take advantage of those close games since the books think they’ll win every week by 1-3 points.  9/11 experts at Covers.com agree with me here. (L)

4.) Clemson -8 over NC STATE — NC State has lost 4 of their last 5 and they can’t stop anyone on defense to save their life.  They’ve given up an average of 41.4 points in their last 5 games.  They’ve been decimated by injuries.  In their defense, they have the offense to hang in games, but Clemson looks to run up the score on them.  With Clemson allowing just 17.3 PPG, I like the odds. (W)

5.) PITTSBURGH -6.5 over Notre Dame — Notre Dame has been a great team to bet against, 2-7 ATS.  Pittsburgh has been a great team to bet on, 6-2 ATS.  Pitt’s 5.1 yards per carry is top notch and ND gives up 148.8 rushing yards per game and 173.3 rushing yards in their last 3 games. (L)

6.) Miami -3 over NORTH CAROLINA — Another favorable spread.  UNC lost to FSU and Virginia, so I think that tells you just how weak their team is.  However, in their defense, they are coming off two impressive wins over Virginia Tech and Duke, but with Miami 5-1 in their last 6 games, I’ll take my chances on ‘em. (L)

7.) Georgia Tech -9 over DUKE — GT has won 7 straight going 6-1 ATS in that span.  Don’t underestimate Duke though, they can pass the football and GT has some defensive issues, but I would rather ride the red-hot GT team.  GT has covered 5 straight against Duke. (W)

UPDATE: We started off the day 3-1 in the early games, but ended up 3-3-1. At least it wasn’t a losing week, but we should have ended up 5-2 if a few more things went our way. In the BC/UVA game that pushed for us, BC’s QB threw 2 crucial INTs. One in the endzone on the first drive of the game that essentially took away 3-7 points and another that led to UVA’s sole TD in the game. In the PITT/ND game, Pitt had the 20-3 lead going into the 4th quarter, but they let ND get back in the game, and although they won by 5, they couldn’t cover the 6.5.

Before we get into this game, remember to sign up for THE PASS RUSH’s pick ‘em league.  Here are quick links to my NFL picks and Brandon’s NCAA picks.

#25 WEST VIRGINA (7-2) @ #5 CINCINNATI (9-0) -9.5

We have a tremendous college football game for Friday night.  The Mountaineers will travel to Cincinnati to face the undefeated Bearcats.  Let’s try to break down this matchup and see which team is a good pick against the spread.  Cincinnati has been better against the spread this year than West Virginia: Cincinnati is 6-3 ATS and West Virginia is 2-6 ATS.

Cincinatti is averaging 40 PPG and allowing 16.4 PPG.  West Virginia is averaging 28.3 PPG and allowing 20.9 PPG.  When these teams met last year, Cincinnati won 26-23.  Cincinnati has a much better team this year though.  Cincinatti has a clear advantage with their passing game.  Cincy is averaging 355 yards per game, 100 more yards per game than West Virginia’s passing average.  West Virginia’s edge is their rushing defense.  WVU gives up 120 rushing yards per game (3.4 YPR) compared to Cincy’s 172 yard average (4.2 YPR), but that doesn’t matter that much since Cincinnati is a pass first, run second team.

Tony Pike might get some action this game, but it will be backup Zach Callaros that will be getting the start for Cincinnatti once again.  No worry about Pike sitting out,  Callaros is playing just as well, maybe even better than Pike was.  Callaros is averaging 12.3 yards per passing attempt and has 10 TDs and just 1 INT.

I would have been all over Cincinnati if I didn’t see what happened to them last week.  Cincinnati barely topped Connecticut last week, winning by a score of 47-45.  UCONN was able to compile 462 yards with most of the damage being done by their RB.  With WVU’s serious run threat in Noel Devine, I would be hesitant on taking Cincinatti due to that fact.  However, Devine does have an injured ankle, but is listed as probable.

In Cincinnati’s defense, they are ranked in the top 10 in passing, scoring, and total offense.  They put up over 700 yards against UCONN.  That is not a typo, they had over 700 yards of offense last week.  The Bearcats average 482 yards of offense per game, ranked 3rd in the country.

The one common opponent I want to take a look at is South Florida since that is a quality football team and will give us a tell on how these teams will fair against each other.  Cincinnati beat South Florida 34-17 and West Virginia lost to South Florida 30-19.  Cincy also rolled over Louisville 41-10 and WVU beat Louisville by a mere 17-9 score.

The over/under is set at 56.  With these offenses, I think you’ll likely see the over hit.  Although the number is very tempting to take, it’s still a bit too high for me to bite, especially since WVU has averaged just 18 PPG in their last 2 games.  These offenses average close to a combined 900 yards and 68 PPG.  I am a bit concerned that Cincy’s defense was exposed last week by UCONN, but WVU was been held to under 20 points in their last 2 games to just average teams.

Fox Sports is calling Cincinnati to win 37-23.  At Covers.com, 7/12 experts like Cincinnati to cover and 59% of the consensus vote is favoring Cincinnati.

I am going with Cincinnati to cover in this game.  Cincinnati’s passing game is just off the charts and I don’t think WVU has an answer for it. If WVU wants to stay in this game, they’ll have to keep the Cincinnati defense honest and prevent them from stacking the box.  If Cincinnati can stop the WVU running game and have their secondary take care of business, this game could be one sided and Cincinnati could find themselves up big in a hurry.

Prediction: Cincinatti 34 – West Virginia 20

Free Pick: Cincinatti -9.5 (Confidence: 3/5) (L)

Overall Profit 3.9 units (updated 11/11)

We start the week early again with a game on Tuesday night. We hit last Tuesday with Bowling Green over Buffalo, so lets keep our strong Tuesday night plays rolling.

1) Ohio at Buffalo (-1.5) This Buffalo team plays hard every single time they take the field. Ohio was a great play early in the season, but are simply not playing the type of ball they once were. Ohio faces an angry Buffalo squad after their loss from a week ago to Bowling Green. Ohio has also been plagued by the injury bug and are probably looking at starting their 3rd string QB tonight. If Buffalo can establish the run this game will be over at halftime. Lay the points with Buffalo.

Ohio 27 Buffalo 24 L for 1.1 units

GAME OF THE YEAR #3: FRESNO STATE (+7) at Nevada for 2 units

This line simply blows me away. I have Fresno State as a 9 point favorite!! Strength of schedule alone makes Fresno State a strong play. Just look at who Fresno State has played and how they faired in those games: on the road in Wisconsin lose in the final seconds, lose at home in a competitive match with Boise State, play Cincinnati tough to the final quarter, and then have won 5 straight, including three road wins. Nevada also post three early loses, but against teams not nearly as strong as what Fresno faced: blowout loss on the road to Notre Dame, a terrible loss to Colorado State on the road (who by the way has lost 7 straight games, including a loss to UNLV, who Nevada beat by 35), and a loss at home to a weak Missouri squad. Both teams will get up and down the field and should score a ton of points. However, as Nevada has stepped up in class they have proven not to be the same squad they are against weaker opponents. Fresno State is a talented squad that can win this game outright. I see this game being close, but Fresno wins 54-42.

3)  Fresno State (+245) at Nevada MONEYLINE. OUTRIGHT DOG WINNER!

4) Bowling Green (-3) at Miami (OH) for 1 unit

Bowling Green 35 Miami (OH) 14 W for 1 unit

5) South Florida (+2.5) at Rutgers for 1 unit

Rutgers 31 South Florida 0 L for 1.1 units

6) WVU at Cincinnati (-9) for 1 unit

7) Florida State (+5) at Wake Forest for 1 unit

8) Clemson (-8) at NC State for 1 unit

9) Arizona (+3) at California for 1 unit