Friday Night Weeknight Guarantee (1-0-0):

Utah State (+7.5) vs. BYU W

Saturday Locks (2-2-0):

Northwestern (+10) vs. Illinois W

Air Force (+3.5) vs. Navy W

Kent State vs. Ohio (-16) L

Auburn vs. South Carolina over 59.5 L

Saturday Normal Plays (1-3-0):

North Carolina vs. East Carolina (+7) L

Nebraska (+10) vs. Wisconsin L

Notre Dame (-12) vs. Purdue W

Baylor (-3.5) vs. Kansas State L

Brock Osweiler threw for 262 yards with a 71.8 completion percentage in week one.

I am typing this article up at 5:04 pm ET and currently the line we have for this game is Arizona State giving 10 to Missouri. The line opened up at seven and has now bounced to ten. When it was at seven I loved the Arizona State pick, but now that it’s ten, ehhh I think I’m going to lay off betting on the spread. Instead, I see a lock in the under. The obvious reason behind this pick is due to the fact that yes, Missouri did only put up ten points against the MAC Miami Redhawks. Missouri just outgained the Redhawks getting 291 yards of offense compared to Miami’s 270.

Then there are the number of injuries for Arizona State. Cornerback Omar Bolden, linebacker Brandon Magee, and wide receiver T.J. Simpsons are just a few of the key injuries racked up on their sideline. Missouri also has Jacquies Smith and Will Ebner out for them who are two key players.

The under has hit in six of Missouri’s last seven games. The under has hit in four of Missouri’s last five road games. The under has hit in nine of Arizona State’s last eleven non-conference games.

I like the under in this one, seems a lock.

Prediction: Missouri 17 – Arizona State 24

Play: Under 52.5

Page won't be enough for the Rockets tonight.

record. On the other hand, Toledo lost their starting quarterback Austin Dantin during their match-up with Eastern Michigan, a game in which they came out victorious.

Toledo just isn’t that good on defense. They allowed 130 yards per game this year along with 25 touchdowns on the ground. The only thing they have going for them is their pass rush (irony), with 27 sacks on the year. So they do oppose at least a threat on defense. FIU made a very large improvement on its run defense cleaning up about 75 yards from what they allowed in 2009.

These two teams have split their two games from the past two seasons. I see Florida International still coming out on top tonight though. I see a lot of people on Toledo tonight, yes Page is very good and explosive, but just him will not win the game tonight for the Rockets.

Prediction: Golden Panthers 34 – Rockets 24

Pick Against the Spread: Florida International (-1.5)

Here is some information about tonight’s game. Boise State’s defense is ranked fourth in the nation, that includes both scoring defense and overall defense. Utah will be in trouble if they look to run the ball tonight as Boise

Finishing fourth in the Heisman race, Kellen Moore looks to end the Utes' nine-game bowl win streak.

State is ranked sixth against the run. Kellen Moore finished fourth in the Heisman voting. Although he may not have the strongest arm, he makes great decisions and is very accurate throwing the ball. He finished with 3,506 passing yards, 33 touchdowns, and with those 33 touchdowns he only threw five interceptions. Utah was once ranked 6th in the AP Poll after opening up to an 8-0 start, saw their BCS Bowl dreams crushed with back-to-back losses to TCU and The Fighting Irish. They have won nine straight bowl games, with the first two actually being won in Las Vegas, where tonight’s game is being played.

Utah can play some stellar defense. It really just depends what team shows up. They allow under 20.0 points per game. As stated earlier, Boise State has a very good defense as well. The last time these two teams met, Boise won handily 36-3, and I see another similar score, low. Out of Boise’s last five games, four of them have gone under the total. Defenses will step up tonight.

Prediction: Broncos 35 – Utes 17

Pick: Under (58)

Tonight features a game where the Buffalo Bulls, coming off a three game losing streak, will travel to a very good team in the Ohio Bobcats. Buffalo hasn’t faced much competition, and will be challenged tonight. The Bills won’t know just

Bobcats' offense has been hot.

how bad they are until they face Akron and Eastern Michigan in their last two games of the season, another two very bad teams, Akron being at about as low as it gets.

No team has a serious edge over the other in the head to head matchup. Last year the Bobcats won by a field goal. Since the end of September though, Ohio is 5-0 SU and is tied for first in the MAC East. The Bobcats average 341 yards per game and about 30 PPG. They have scored at least 30 points in each of their last five games.

I think Ohio should win easily. The Bobcats are 5-0 ATS in their last five November games, as well as 5-1 ATS in their last six overall.

Prediction: Bobcats 34 – Bulls 13

Pick Against the Spread: Bobcats -15.5

1.) Tennessee Over 49

- I like the over in this game. That is all to be said for this one.

2.)Florida Over 47.5

-I like the over in this game because of a few different statistics: Florida’s games have gone over 10 out of the last 11 times after allowing 200 yards rushing their past game, they are 4-1 after allowing 20 points or less in their previous game, 4-1 after an ATS loss, and the Gators games go over in 8 of their last 10 games at neutral sites. Georgia’s games have gone over in 5 or their last 6 games as favorites, and the over is 4-1 in their last 5 games while playing in October. (courtesy of covers.com).

3.) Iowa Over 50.5

-Iowa’s defense is built for more interior play. They are still, for the most part, a traditional smash mouth football type of team that the Big 10 has lost sight of. Iowa did hold Michigan’s spread attack to minimal points, but with Denard and the Wolverines being inside the red zone of the Hawkeyes  while turning the ball over proves to me that a more open type of offensive attack could do the Iowa defense in. Now don’t get me wrong I’m not saying that either of these teams aren’t strong defensive teams, but I’m just going by stats and trends. Michigan State’s games have gone over when (and stats): 12-4 over when they were road dogs of 3.5-10 points, 19-7-1 over when they were 3.5-10 point dogs in general, and 5-2 over when they played their last 7 conference games. Iowa’s games have gone over when: they are home favorites of 3.5-10 points 9-2, when they are favorites in general 4-1.

4.) Oregon State Over 53.5

- Oregon State’s last 8 games have gone over the projected lines by Vegas. Oregon State’s games have gone over when they play at home 4 of last 4, when they play as home favorites 4 of last 4, when they play conference opponents 4 of last 4 and when they face a team with a winning record 4 of last 4. Six of the Cal Bear’s last eight games have gone over.

5.) Baylor +7.5

- I may have some bias in this pick with me doubting any talent on the team of the Longhorns, but I believe Baylor has the makings to beat this spread. The extra half point here is huge a touchdown game is a winner. Baylor is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Texas and the road team is 9-3 in their last 12 games. I believe the Bears will shut down the Texas offense early and often in this game. If Baylor can silence the Longhorn crowd this game has the potential to even become an out right winner.

6.) Clemson Under 41.5 – Bonus

- This line caught my eye with is being so low. I don’t know about any of you this year, but when I look at low 40 spreads for college football I think under immediately, but most have gone over their scheduled total. This is why I have made this my bonus play of the day. Play it if you’re needing another pick. The game has potential to go under with Boston College’s last 9 of 13 regular season games going under and 4 of the last 5 games going under for Clemson. There you have it the bonus play of the week enjoy!

NC State Offensive Attack

What a compelling game on a Thursday night! What an ACC Matchup with Florida State traveling to North Carolina State. Florida State and NC State are two of the top teams in the ACC and have very powerful offenses. Both teams average over 420 yards a game. Florida state with 221 in the air and 211 on the ground while NC State averages 323 in the air and 136 on the ground. Florida state also averages 34.9 ppg while NC State throws up 36 a game.

The over is 5-0 in both team’s last five games when NC State was a home underdog, 4-0 when NC State is an underdog from 3.5-10 points, 13-3 in NC State’s last 16 conference games, 6-2 when FSU is favored by 3.5-10 points.

After taking a look at the line movement in this game I really like the over as well. The line opened up at 56.5 and is currently at 59. Jump on this line now.

Secondly, I like the NC State Wolfpack in this Thursday night matchup. The Wolfpack were down 21-0 after the 1st quarter, but tightened up their chin straps after the first and made a comeback, which I believe boosted their confidence and will make them want to come out and smash their ACC foe in FSU. There are a few more reasons I am liking the Wolf Pack tonight:

1.) NC State is 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings

2.) NC State is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings at NC State

3.) The underdog, NC State in this case, is 8-0-1 ATS in the last 9 games between both teams.

If the Wolf Pack can step up on their rush defense and limit Florida State’s ground game I believe they can come away with the upset victory at home. Play on NC State +4 as well as the Over 59.

Friday night features a pair of 3-3 Big East teams. South Florida is coming off a loss in West Virginia 20-6. The Bulls haven’t scored more than 14 points in any of their three losses. The Bulls are ranked 59th in rushing yards per game

Collaros stays hot Friday night.

and ranked 107th in passing yards per game. The only thing that’s holding this team together right now is their defense which is ranked 18th in points allowed, which is decent.

Cincinnati is coming off an impressive win against Louisville. The Bearcats are currently on a two game winning streak, improving from 1-3 to 3-3. Zach Collaros totaled five touchdown passes against Louisville while throwing for 275 yards.

Cincinnati has covered the spread in each of these two team’s last six meetings. I don’t see the Bulls again putting up many points, while Collaros remains hot. South Florida is 1-4 ATS in their last five games, as well as 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in their last five October games, as well as 9-4 ATS in their last 13 conference games.

Let’s get back on a winning streak and win some money.

Prediction: Bearcats 24 – Bulls 10

Pick Against the Spread: Cincinnati -7.5

This is a big Thursday night game that will be aired on ESPN. South Florida is coming off an ugly 13-9 loss against Syracuse last week. West Virginia covered their 26.5 point spread by beating UNLV last week 49-10. They are now

South Florida takes advantage of the generous points given to them tonight.

ranked in the AP top 25 at #25.

Let’s talk about the head-to-head match-up between these two teams though. South Florida has won three of the last four games SU and are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings with the Mountaineers. Last year, South Florida topped them 30-19. Clearly, West Virginia is the better team this year, but in my opinion are getting way too many points tonight. I see West Virginia winning this game, but definitely in a close one. South Florida covers the spread.

The Bulls last victory against their last five games versus ranked opponents was against West Virginia last year. Coach Holtz knows that this year is different with West Virginia improving dramatically throwing the ball when they’re usually known for their running game.

Holtz as a coach is 20-4-1 ATS as a dog when facing a team with at least one loss on the season. Coach of the Mountaineers,, Stewart,  is 8-15 ATS when laying points. Vegas made a mistake and gave the Bulls too many points.

Prediction: Mountaineers 24 – Bulls 20

Pick Against the Spread: South Florida +10.5

We have a Big 12 match-up Thursday night with two undefeated teams. Both teams were on a bye week last week and it will be their first conference game. The past two meeting have been very high scoring, and Oklahoma State has come out on top in both winning 56-28 (as a 26 point favorite) and then winning last season 36-31 (as a 5 point favorite, pushing).

The Oklahoma State offense is too much for the Aggies' defense.

Both teams have very efficient offenses, as Oklahoma State actually ranks 2nd in the nation in passing yards this season. Oklahoma state crushed Tulsa in their last game 65-28, accumulating 722 total yards on offense, over half of those throwing the ball. Texas A&M snuck by Florida International 27-20 being a 29 point favorite, obviously not covering that spread due to the fact that they turned the ball over five times that game. Speaking of spreads, both teams are currently 2-1 ATS this season.

Texas A&M ranks 10th in the nation on defense, and will definitely have their hands full in this one. They have a great rush D, but are ranked 50th in the nation in pass D. QB Brandon Weeden for OK State is on absolute fire throwing 6 TDs with 0 INTs against Tulsa in their last contest. I hope OK State sees those stats and throws the ball all night. I don’t see them giving the ball to Kendall Hunter too much.

Texas A&M’s quarterback Jerrod Johnson is coming off a game where he threw the ball to the other team four times! Talk about having no confidence entering Thursday. OK State did let Tulsa get their passing yards, so maybe he rebounds? RB Christine Michael was about the only player to have a good game in their close one with FLA Intl, rushing for 119 yards and also scoring a touchdown. The Aggies have a good defense, but the Cowboys’ offense is just simply too overpowering.

Other notes:

• Both of these teams have a tendency to go over the total. Consider that a play if you’d like.
• The Aggies are only 1-6 ATS when playing on a Thursday.
• The Cowboys are 11-4 in their last 15 as a home favorite.
• Don’t forget, my Thursday night plays are 2-0-0 in the past two weeks.

With the stats I’ve been looking at, my play is definitely on Oklahoma State (-3.5). You might have got this spread at the closing (-2.5) or (-3) so let’s hope you took that for a winner or even a push