College Football

South Florida Bulls @ Cincinnati Bearcats (-7.5)

Friday night features a pair of 3-3 Big East teams. South Florida is coming off a loss in West Virginia 20-6. The Bulls haven’t scored more than 14 points in any of their three losses. The Bulls are ranked 59th in rushing yards per game

Collaros stays hot Friday night.

and ranked 107th in passing yards per game. The only thing that’s holding this team together right now is their defense which is ranked 18th in points allowed, which is decent.

Cincinnati is coming off an impressive win against Louisville. The Bearcats are currently on a two game winning streak, improving from 1-3 to 3-3. Zach Collaros totaled five touchdown passes against Louisville while throwing for 275 yards.

Cincinnati has covered the spread in each of these two team’s last six meetings. I don’t see the Bulls again putting up many points, while Collaros remains hot. South Florida is 1-4 ATS in their last five games, as well as 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in their last five October games, as well as 9-4 ATS in their last 13 conference games.

Let’s get back on a winning streak and win some money.

Prediction: Bearcats 24 – Bulls 10

Pick Against the Spread: Cincinnati -7.5…

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South Florida Bulls @ West Virginia Mountaineers (-10.5)

This is a big Thursday night game that will be aired on ESPN. South Florida is coming off an ugly 13-9 loss against Syracuse last week. West Virginia covered their 26.5 point spread by beating UNLV last week 49-10. They are now

South Florida takes advantage of the generous points given to them tonight.

ranked in the AP top 25 at #25.

Let’s talk about the head-to-head match-up between these two teams though. South Florida has won three of the last four games SU and are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings with the Mountaineers. Last year, South Florida topped them 30-19. Clearly, West Virginia is the better team this year, but in my opinion are getting way too many points tonight. I see West Virginia winning this game, but definitely in a close one. South Florida covers the spread.

The Bulls last victory against their last five games versus ranked opponents was against West Virginia last year. Coach Holtz knows that this year is different with West Virginia improving dramatically throwing the ball when they’re usually known for their running game.

Holtz as a coach is 20-4-1 ATS as a dog when facing a team with at least one loss on the season. Coach of the Mountaineers,, Stewart,  is 8-15 ATS when laying points. Vegas made a mistake and gave the Bulls too many points.

Prediction: Mountaineers 24 – Bulls 20

Pick Against the Spread: South Florida +10.5…

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Texas A&M Aggies @ Oklahoma State Cowboys

We have a Big 12 match-up Thursday night with two undefeated teams. Both teams were on a bye week last week and it will be their first conference game. The past two meeting have been very high scoring, and Oklahoma State has come out on top in both winning 56-28 (as a 26 point favorite) and then winning last season 36-31 (as a 5 point favorite, pushing).

The Oklahoma State offense is too much for the Aggies' defense.

Both teams have very efficient offenses, as Oklahoma State actually ranks 2nd in the nation in passing yards this season. Oklahoma state crushed Tulsa in their last game 65-28, accumulating 722 total yards on offense, over half of those throwing the ball. Texas A&M snuck by Florida International 27-20 being a 29 point favorite, obviously not covering that spread due to the fact that they turned the ball over five times that game. Speaking of spreads, both teams are currently 2-1 ATS this season.

Texas A&M ranks 10th in the nation on defense, and will definitely have their hands full in this one. They have a great rush D, but are ranked 50th in the nation in pass D. QB Brandon Weeden for OK State is on absolute fire throwing 6 TDs with 0 INTs against Tulsa in their last contest. I hope OK State sees those stats and throws the ball all night. I don’t see them giving the ball to Kendall Hunter too much.

Texas A&M’s quarterback Jerrod Johnson is coming off a game where he threw the ball to the other team four times! Talk about having …

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Kentucky Wildcats @ Florida Gators

Yes, Joey G is back for yet another over/under prediction. Now knock on wood, but I have not been incorrect with any of my over/under predictions thus far since joining the pass rush. I see an easy over tonight with Kentucky and Florida.

Florida hosts Kentucky tonight at 7pm.

Kentucky has stayed over 200 yards in both their passing and rushing game in each of their first three games. They have yet to turn the ball over this season. Florida, on the other hand, has been absolutely lost on offense. They looked as if they were going to lose to Miami (OH) in their opening game of the season! The only thing that they have going for them right now is their defense. They are making their opponents turn the ball over four times a game. Making Miami turn the ball over four times in their opener is what handed them that victory.

Kentucky has not been challenged too much on offense yet this year but they are putting up some stats that I am sure they are happy with. If Florida can keep up their “high turnover” mentality this season, let’s just hope it happens on the opponent’s side of the field. I see this one going over, and pretty easily.

Key Trends:

• Kentucky over is 4-0 in their last four coming off of a win.
• Kentucky over is 10-1 in their last 11 coming off a game where they covered the spread.
• Kentucky over is 5-2 in last seven conference games.
• Florida over is 4-1 in last five games.
• Florida over is 4-1 in last five as a

…

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In tonight’s nationally televised showdown, I am making a small play on the Pittsburgh Panthers at (+4). There are a lot of trends that most of you are probably going to go by, but i don’t like too many of them. I like the Panthers tonight at home in their first HOME test of the season. Pitt played tough on the road at Utah but came up just shy of a victory. Pitt’s running game has not been where they want it to be so far this season. I’m looking for a big game tonight out of the nation’s leading rusher from ’09, Dion Lewis. Lewis has been held to only 102 yards on 35 carries thus far, this season. Dion Lewis will be the X-factor in tonight’s game if they want to come away with a win. The Panthers will come out with fire and intensity at home and look to make a statement on national television.

Here are some trends that should give you a little more incentive:

Pitt is 7-3 in their last 10 home games ATS

Miami is 3-13 in their last 16 ATS off of a bye week

Pitt is a HOME DOG (Vegas Martin)

Like I said, don’t get too caught up in these trends. Read the article and take Pitt for a small winner tonight.

Final: Pittsburgh 27-21 over Miami…

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Think of betting on the top 10 against the spread? Think again.

Based on a quick glance at the week 1 college football scores, you’re probably saying to yourself, “I should have just bet on every top 10 college football team.” Let’s see how many ended up covering.

#1 Alabama (-38.5) vs. San Jose State – Alabama covers by 6.5

#2 Ohio State (-28) vs. Marshall – Ohio State covers by 10

#3 Florida (-38) vs. Miami-OH – Miami-OH covers by 16

#4 Texas (-31) vs. Rice – Rice covers by 14

#5 Boise State vs. #6 Virginia Tech – Tonight!

#7 TCU (-13.5) vs. Oregon State – Oregon State covers by 4.5

#8 Oklahoma (-34) vs. Utah State – Utah State covers by 27

#9 Nebraska (-39) vs. Western Kentucky – Push

#10 Iowa vs. Eastern Illinois – No Odds

Summary: If you took the 7 top 10 teams that could you have bet on ATS, you would have went 2-4-1.…

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Good to be back.  I do have to apologize for struggling down the stretch last year.  I had a lot going on personally and really wasn’t focused on football.  No EXCUSES though, it is what it is and life goes on.  I have done a lot of pre-season review of the teams and have actually already placed a bet on a college football game. If you don’t know, Vegas books release early lines and the one that jumped out at me was Louisville +7 at home verse Kentucky. However, that line was changed quite a bit, with Louisville at +3.

Another key to betting the first week is to look for teams with returning offensive linemen.  Protecting your QB and giving your RB some holes to run through is critical early in the season b/c it really helps avoid those unnecessary turnovers. One team that will be a bet against at every opportunity is Florida Atlantic who returns NO offensive linemen with a collegiate start.  To make matters worse their projected starting center just went down with an injury to his knee and it is not looking good that he will make it back for the first game.

If some of you are into future bets on who may be the BCS Champion I would lean towards the following:

1. Oklahoma at 12to1. Bottom Line: QB did get several starts last year and their schedule sets them up perfectly to go undefeated.

2. Boise State at 10to1. Bottom Line: If they beat VT in the opener then they will go undefeated and may get that chance at BCS Title game this year.

These are just …

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