NFL Picks

The Sunday-Monday Night streak has been extended to 5-0 thanks to the Ravens pulling it out in overtime and cashing in our 7-point teaser of Ravens -0.5, over 28.5. You can never go wrong betting against a rookie in his first start and that was the difference in this one as DE Paul Kruger picked off the rookie by dropping back into coverage while Ray Lewis blitzed, getting the pick, and setting up the field goal. Thank you to those who bought me a beer for taking down my NFL play of the week, my teaser of Chargers -6.5 and Vikings -3.5. When I see Paul Kruger or Ray Rice, I’ll be sure to offer them a cold one for last night’s big win.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -1.5

Tonight is the GAME OF THE YEAR — not as in this pick is a lock, but as in the best game to watch in the last 3 years, maybe since the 2006 Rose Bowl if I might say so (see and vote on our new poll). Maybe this is the second game of the year after we were treated to the Colts and Patriots just not too long ago.  This is expected to be the most wagered game of the year.

My previous stance on this game when the spread was released was to tease it by adding 7 points to the Patriots +3 that they got to start to make it Patriots +10 and take the over 48.5.  If you got into that teaser while the Pats were getting 3 points, I still like that pick, but I’m going with the Saints -1.5.

I think the Saints win this one in a very, very close game, but the Pats shouldn’t have any problem losing by less than 10 points.  This game will likely be decided by a field goal or a single touchdown.  If you waited to bet on this game until tonight, what do you do now that the spread has moved to Saints -1.5 and the over/under moved from 54.5 to 55.5?

I think your chances of getting this one right are as good as a coin flip. So pull out a quarter and say heads go to the Pats, tails go to the Saints.  I will be taking the Saints though.  They are at home, which is critical, their defense is right on par with New England, and their offense can outscore anyone.

HOME TEAM + MONDAY NIGHT, I LIKE THE SAINTS -1.5. Just a small bet though since Tom Brady is really, really good and I don’t want to have to worry too much about the money and just watch the game for enjoyment.

Prediction: Saints 34 – Patriots 31

Tonight’s Play: Saints -1.5 (Confidence: 2.5/5)

Note: If you grabbed it early in the week, I still like my original teaser of Patriots +10, Over 48.5

Hope you capitalized off of the SUNDAY SPECIAL TEASER: Chargers -6.5, Vikings -3.5. That was my biggest and only play of the day.  Although we had an 11-0 streak going into Saturday, we gave some of that back with 2 bad beats on Saturday, but we were able to make up for that with the teaser today.

I’m still thinking about what to do tonight.  The spread moved from Ravens -9 to Ravens -7.5, so a bunch of people are siding with the Steelers and the points.  First the injuries, Roethlisberger is out, Polamalu is out, and Suggs is out.  Rookie Dennis Dixon gets the start tonight.  This is his first start of the season and his only action was 2 preseason games where he wasn’t very impressive.  He was a dynamic playmaker in college for Oregon last year and was also a Heisman hopeful. He brings an elusive running game, but I am not expecting much from the kid in his first start against the Ravens.

The over under is set extremely low at 35.5.  All signs point to this game and the under, but with Polamalu and Suggs out, that may open up some scoring opportunities.  Dixon is also capable of breaking open a run as well.  You can also expect the Steelers to call run after run and kill that clock.

I want to do a teaser here.  I don’t think you take the Steelers at +14.5 due to the rookie factor against a very good defense on the road.  I like the Ravens at -0.5, so you’re going to have to debate whether to tease the over/under to over 28.5 or under 42.5.

This could easily be a 16-13 game or this could be a 24-20 game, so the over/under is hard to forecast here, especially with Dixon as the Steelers QB.  28.5 is not a lot of points.  The Ravens are averaging 23.7 PPG, but the Ravens last 4 games have all gone under 34 points.  I think the Ravens can put up 20-24 points tonight, which means the Steelers will just need 9 for the over 28.5 to hit.  6/9 experts at Covers.com are taking the over.

Ed Reed will also be active. Against a rookie QB, think pick 6.

Tonight’s Play: 7-point teaser: Ravens -0.5, Over 28.5 (Confidence: 2/5)

Back-to-back-to-back-to-back SUNDAY & MONDAY NIGHT winners. Yes I will boast about a 4-0 record in the past 2 weeks in the prime-time games. Even after bad starts and let’s be honest here, 5-8 in the last two week for the top picks is not what I’m shooting for, but we kept you in the game and hopefully made up some ground with our prime-time picks.

All it would have taken is 2 games to go our way to post a winning record and I will throw out 2 injuries to “justify” or “excuse” my poor record: QB Kyle Orton’s injury last week, which cost us the game against the Redskins and QB Kurt Warner’s injury when the Cardinals were beating the Rams 21-3, but then failed to cover by a mere point when Leinart scored 0 2nd-half points.  I will also consider the Steelers loss complete BS due to “luck.”

However, all was not melancholy in the end! We picked the Eagles and Titans and got two big wins after a less than ideal start to our Sunday.  We did it the previous week with the Patriots/Ravens double-whammy and we did it again this week.

We’ve battled back and made up a ton of ground going into Week 12.

Why do the statistical analysis when a kickoff return, a turnover, or even a crucial penalty call will determine the outcomes of at least 67% of these games against the spread. Let’s just roll with it from the gut.  So now I give you a more condensed version of our weekly picks without all the garbage and some “fearless” predictions.  I also throw out about a half-dozen teasers that I like more than the actual spreads.

IT’S TEASER WEEKEND!

GREEN BAY PACKERS -10.5 @ DETROIT LIONS

When Aaron Rodgers plays the Detroit Lions, it’s like he’s playing a video game.  I’m counting on at least 350 yards from him and at least 2 TDs and maybe even 3 or 4.  As long as he doesn’t throw any INTs or the Packers fumble away the football, I think you can expect the Packers to cover.  The Packers offensive line is always a concern, but the Lions don’t generate pressure. Look for Aaron Rodgers to throw darts all over the field.  With Stafford unlikely to play and Calvin Johnson questionable (game-time decision), you don’t have to worry as much about GB defense that can give up a significant amount of points, so I’m in favor of giving up the points here to take A-Rod.  If Calvin Johnson and Stafford are out, which is likely, I think you’re safe with taking the spread or you could also tease the Packers down to -3.5 and tease the under to 54.5 (or over 40.5 if you expect the Lions to put up some points).  Also keep in mind, DE Kampman and CB Al Harris are both out for the season for the Packers.

Prediction: Packers 31 – Lions 20

Free Pick: 7-Point Teaser: Packers -3.5, Under 54.5 (Confidence: 4/5) (W)

* Consider the Over 40.5 since Calvin Johnson was determined active in the last minute

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ DALLAS COWBOYS -13.5

So much for the Cowboys putting up a lot of points at home.  Just 7 points against the Redskins.  I don’t like this spread since the Cowboys have been held to just 7 points in their last two games and I’m not expecting the Raiders to do much with the football either.  After the Raiders topped the Benglas last week, I’m entertaining the idea of taking the 13.5 points here, but it’s the Raiders on the road and that could mean a 31-0 loss.  This spread is in the no action category, but for the sake of Thanksgiving, I’m going to throw out another teaser that I think you’ll find end up in the money. Although I have very little confidence in since a Raiders loss by 21+ will not shock me a single bit, I think you can take the Raiders +20.5, but I’m expecting a big Cowboys win at home against a crappy road team on their big Thanksgiving Day game.  Add the points to the Raiders (hopefully the spread moves to 14 so you can get 21), or take the Cowboys at a mere -6.5, and count on the Raiders and Cowboys to play defense and limit the amount of points in this one.  Injuries to note: TE Witten and CB Jenkins are questionable for the Cowboys.

Prediction: Cowboys 24 – Raiders 13

Free Pick: Cowboys -6.5 (or even Raiders +20.5 if you have confidence in them), Under 47.5 (Confidence: 3/5) (W)

NEW YORK GIANTS -6.5 @ DENVER BRONCOS

I doubled down on the Chargers last week when they announced QB Kyle Orton would be out and that gave me a big boost last week.  Not only is Orton on a bum ankle, but Brandon Marshall is banged up (neck and back) and was held to less than 30 yards last week.  With the Denver’s QB and their best WR ailing, I’m in favor the Giants.  Since I’m always about “what have you done for me lately,” I would like to point out that the Broncos are 0-4 in their last four games.

Update: With RB Ahmad Bradshaw out, LB Antonio Pierce out, WR Hakeen Nicks questionable, and OG Seubert questionable, I am slightly less optimistic about the Giants having to travel out west on a short week to win this game.  I’ll stick with them, but a little “buyer beware” on this one.

Prediction: Giants 24 – Broncos 13

Free Pick: Giants -6.5 (Confidence: 3/5) (L)

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ CINCINNATTI BENGALS -14

Brady Quinn got the deep ball going last week, but lost to the Lions 38-37 in a wild one.  The good news is that the Browns held the Ravens to 9 offensive points when they played them on Monday night.  The Bengals win games close.  I’ll take the 14 points here.  It’s just too many.  Fearless prediction: Bengals win by 10 after being up by 17 and the Browns score a garbage TD with 4 or 5 minutes left in the game.  Instead of playing the spread, I like the Browns starting the game with a 21-0 lead and having to score just 33 total points in order to cover.  The Browns should give up at least 20 and should be able to muster at least 13 here, of if the Bengals win 31-10, you’re still in pretty good shape!  The Browns lost to the Bengals by the score of 23-20 earlier this season.

Prediction: Bengals 27 – Browns 17

Free Pick: 7-Point Teaser: Browns +21, Over 32.5 (Confidence: 3/5) (L)

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -9

I’m an Eagles fan, so I cannot pick this game. I would not take the Eagles as 9-point favorites after seeing the fight the Redskins put up last week against the Cowboys. You can count on the Eagles to win — obviously. They dominated the Redskins earlier in the season, but it’s later in the season in a tough division game. This one could be close, which will make me throw out another teaser for this game. I think you can win this one no matter what way you tease it: Take Eagles -2 or Redskins +16 and Over 33.5 or Under 47.5. I think you will have 4 winning tickets for all 4 combinations.

Prediction: Eagles 24 – Redskins 17

Free Pick: Any Teaser Combination Works. I like Eagles -2, Over 33.5 (Confidence: 2.5/5) (W)

MIAMI DOLPHINS -3 @ BUFFALO BILLS

The Dolphins running game just cannot be stopped — Ronnie Brown or not.  The Bills are one of the worst teams in the league against the run, ranked 31st to be precise. Fitzpatrick is garbage, despite throwing to T.O. for over 150 yards last week (Jags were without CB Mathis) and will struggle against a better defensive unit. Dolphins runs on the Bills with ease.

Prediction: Dolphins 26 – Bills 13

Free Pick: Dolphins -3 (Confidence: 4/5) (L)

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -3 @ HOUSTON TEXANS

I never like to bet on the Colts vs. Texans games because the Texans always play the Colts tough. For example, in their last game in Indianapolis, the Colts won by 20-17 and the Texans covered when they were given 7.5 points. Before this spread came out, I was fully expecting the spread to be Colts -6.5 and I would have like it there, so I obviously like the -3.5 spread.  In order for me to consider taking the Texans, I would want at least 7 points. We saw a less-than-dominant Titans team beat the Texans, so I don’t think Manning will have any problems winning this one and I expect him to win this one by more than a field goal. Dwight Freeney will be out for the Colts, which is a big blow.

Prediction: Colts 24 – Texans 20

Free Pick: Colts -3 (Confidence: 3/5) (W)

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -3 @ ST. LOUIS RAMS

Both teams are pretty week, but the Seahawks find it easy to pass on teams with poor secondaries like the Rams. The Rams have been solid against the spread lately (4-1 ATS in their last 5), but that’s when they get double digits. This looks like an easy cover for the Seahawks. The Rams have been coming on stronger lately, but Seahawks have won the last 9 meetings between these two, including a 28-0 W from earlier in the season.  QB Bluger will be out, which means Kyle Boller takes over and the Rams’ 1st-round draft pick OT Jason Smith is questionable — that can’t be good for the Rams.  C Richi Incognito, DE Leonard Little, and FB Karney are also all questionable for the Rams.  The Seahawks defense is shaky though and this game has upset alert on it.

Prediction: Seahawks 24 – Rams 17

Free Pick: Seahawks -3 (Confidence: 3.5/5) (W)

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ NEW YORK JETS -3

Last time I checked, Mark Sanchez is still throwing approximately 2 INTs per game.  The offense is in a rut and with NT Kris Jenkins out, teams have been able to run the ball on them.  I’ll take DeAngelo Williams and that Panthers running game in this one.

Prediction: Panthers 23 – Jets 20

Free Pick: Panthers +3 (Confidence: 2.5/5) (L)

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS -13

The Falcons have a lot of issues on defense as they give up a ton of yards.  Last week the Bucs went back to their old ways of getting killed, but in the two weeks prior to that, they covered against the Dolphins and beat the Packers.  Fearless prediction: The Falcons win this one by 10 and the Bucs cover by 3 points.

Prediction: Falcons 27 – Buccaneers 17

Free Pick: Buccaneers +13 (Confidence: 2/5) (W)

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ SAN FRANSISCO 49ERS -3.5

I’m not very high on the 49ers.  They struggle offensively and were only able to make the Packers game look close since the Packers D slacked off after they had the 23-3 lead.  The Jaguars are shockingly in playoff contention in the AFC and I’m loving MJD right now. This one should be a tight game, so I’ll take the 3 points on the team that actually has a legitimate shot to make the playoffs.

Prediction: Jaguars 20 – 49ers 17

Free Pick: Jaguars +3.5 (Confidence: 2/5) (L)

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -13.5

With two straight wins over the Steelers and Raiders, the Chiefs aren’t looking as pathetic as they started the season.  But with WR Dwayne Bowe still out, I don’t count on their luck to continue again this week, especially when they’re not playing in Arrowhead.  The Chargers are getting hot and they just gave the Broncos the business. I think they cover in this one, but they sometimes lack that “killer instinct” to demolish the teams that they’re supposed to.  I.e., only beating the Raiders 24-16 a few weeks ago. This is way too many points in order to take the spread, but I don’t see this game playing out any other way than the Chargers crushing the Chiefs. I think you tease the Chargers down to a nice 6.5 points and take the under since the Chiefs shouldn’t score much.

Prediction: Chargers 28 – Chiefs 13

Free Pick: Chargers -13.5 (Confidence: 1/5) (W), 7-Point Teaser: Chargers -6.5, Under 51.5 (Confidence: 2.5/5) (W)

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ TENNESSEE TITANS -3

I really don’t know what to do here.  The Titans have come on strong, winning 4 straight under the reigns of Vince Young and looking like a playoff-caliber team.  Warner is probable for this game and the Cardinals have been playing excellent on the road (5-0).  DE Vanden Bosch is questionable, which is a huge blow for the Titans defense.  The Cardinals are 6-1 in their last 7 and 5-2 ATS in that time.  I think you have to stick to the Cardinals here.  No one has been able to stop their passing game.

Free Pick: Cardinals +3 (Confidence: 2/5) (P)

Prediction: Cardinals 27 – Titans 24

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS -9

The spread hasn’t been released due to Roethlisberger being questionable with concussion-like symptoms.  Regardless of whether he’s in this one or not, I like the Ravens at home on Sunday Night.  They nearly topped the undefeated Colts last week and the Steelers lost to the Chiefs. With Roethlisberger almost concussed following cracking his head open in a motorcycle accident about 2 years ago, I want him in the game in order to take the Ravens.  If Roethlisberger plays, I think that’s a plus to take the Ravens since his head won’t be 100%, and he’ll likely throw a ball or two to the purple (or black) jerseys.

CHICAGO BEARS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS -10.5

So Jay Cutler is playing like Mark Sanchez now.  Missing open receivers, throwing picks, and just generally sucking as whole.  I was wary of taking the Vikings -10.5 last week against the Seahawks, but the Vikings rolled over them with ease.  The Bears are in a funk.  They won’t be able to run the ball against a tough Vikings front 7.  Cutler has been inaccurate in the passing game.  The Bears defense has been spotty.  The Vikings should put up their usually 30-31 points and the Bears should be held to less than 20.  I like the Vikings.

Prediction: Vikings 31 – Bears 17

Free Pick: Vikings -10.5 (Confidence: 2.5/5) (W), 7-Point Teaser: Vikings -3.5, Over 40 (Confidence: 3.5/5) (W)

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -3

Fantastic Monday Night game to watch. Tons of scoring, lots of lead changes, not a good game to bet one, last team with the ball will win. Good luck trying to figure out who that will be.  The spread on this one has moved from Patriots +3 to +1.5, so the public took the chance to jump on the Patriots with the 3 points.

Prediction: Saints 35 – Patriots 34

Free Pick: No Action on the Spread, 7-Point Teaser: Patriots +10, Over 48.5 (Confidence: 2/5)

TOP 5 SPREADS FOR WEEK 12:

* Subject to change following the release of additional spreads.

** Be warned that I’m betting against 4 home underdogs, which is not a good sign, but that’s not going to discourage me from I think are the best games this week ATS.

*** I actually like all of my teasers better than the 4 spreads, but that’s why they’re teasers.

1.) Dolphins -3 over BILLS (L)

2.) Colts -3 over TEXANS (W)

3.) Giants -6.5 over BRONCOS (L)

4.) Seahawks -3 over RAMS (* Seahawks are on UPSET ALERT) (W)

FIND A TEASER YOU LIKE AND TAKE IT:

1.) Packers -3.5, Under 54.5 (or Over 40.5 w/ Calvin Johnson active) (W)

2.) COWBOYS -6.5, Under 47.5 over Raiders (W)

3.) VIKINGS -3.5, Over 40 over Bears (W)

4.) CHARGERS -6.5, Under 51.5 over Chiefs (L)

5.) Browns +21, Over 32.5 over BENGALS (L)

6.) Patriots +10, Over 48.5 over SAINTS

NON-OVER-UNDER TEASER SPECIALS:

1.) THANKSGIVING DAY SPECIAL: Packers -3.5 and COWBOYS -6.5 (W)

2.) SUNDAY SPECIAL: VIKINGS -3.5 and CHARGERS -6.5 (W)

3.) NFC NORTH SPECIAL: VIKINGS -3.5 and Packers -3.5 (W)

4.) PLAYING THE STRONG FAVORITES SPECIAL: VIKINGS -3.5, CHARGERS -6.5, COWBOYS -6.5, Packers -3.5 (W)

5.) GIMME THE POINTS SPECIAL: Browns +21, Raiders +21, Buccaneers +20, Chiefs +21 (L)

THE ULTIMATE 8-TEAM PARLAY:

8-Team Moneyline Parlay (6 Favorites, 2 3-point Underdogs) — 26-1 ODDS — Packers, Cowboys, Vikings, Chargers, Colts, Dolphins, Jaguars, Panthers.

Note: Replaced Giants with Colts due to better odds and I don’t like that RB Ahmad Bradshaw is out, WR Hakeem Nicks is questionable, LB Antonio Piere is out, OG Seubert is questionable, New York has to travel out west on a short week, and the feeling that the Broncos are “due for a win.”

I’m counting on all the favorites to win and if the Jaguars can pull off the upset against the 49ers and the Panthers can top the Jets, this could seal a huge win.  I think this is something you can place a very, very small bet on for fun and see what happens.

I’ll try to be direct here. It was another bad week. Our top 5 picks went 2-3 and the 3 other plays in the “picks to consider” category went 1-2. Before people decide to start sending hateful comments on how we “suck”, I just wanted to make a few points. Sometimes the NFL gets downright silly and simply unpredictable.

First point: I was 1 point away from having a winning record for the top 5 picks. The Cardinals were up 21-3 at the half. Now if you took the first-half line, you were in great shape. I do not know how they managed to put up 0 points in the 2nd half, but they did, and they won the game 21-13. With the spread set at -9, they didn’t cover by a single point. Now if I would have came out last week and said take the Rams +9, I would have been called a fool.

Second point: I was 1/2 of a point away from having a winning record for the picks in the “spreads to consider” category. The Packers had a 23-3 lead as well, but let the 49ers get a few scores and won by the score of 30-24. With the spread at 6.5, they lost by a half point. Now if I said take the 49ers +6.5 after the they scored 10 points after producing 5 turnovers from the week before, I would have been called a fool and would be laughed at.

Third point: The Steelers pick didn’t work out because of bullshit. They gave up a kickoff return for a TD on the first play of the game, which basically makes the spread Steelers -17 from the get go. Roethlisberger then throws an interception in the endzone that’s returned 97 yards and sets up a Kansas City field goal. That was a 10-point swing. In other words, not only did he fail to score the 7 points that he should of, but he handed over 3 more points the Chiefs. Take that play away and the kickoff return for a TD and that is 17 points that would be in favor of the Steelers, which would have given them the win and the cover.  19/20 people in our pick ‘em league picked the Steelers.

Fourth point: I moved the Chargers over the Broncos pick up to #2 after it was announced the QB Orton was not starting. If you would have gotten word of that, hopefully you took down that game for an easy win.

Fifth point: Out of the 20 teams in our pick em league, only 5 had were over .500. Just 25% of our pick ‘em league was above .500. Again, proof that picking NFL games against the spread is no easy task. Picking the right games requires some skill, but you need a tremendous amount of luck. That’s all it is afterall, LUCK! That’s the only way those games that win or lose by a half point or a single point end up going your way.

Sixth point: Pay attention to the confidence ratings. Most of the losers in sum from this week were from games that were given a mere 2/5 rating.

Seventh point: It’s easy to be a critic after the fact and play “Monday morning quarterback”, having the benefit of knowing the scores. When I posted my picks, almost all of you were in agreement with my top 5.

Eighth point: The 7-2 Bengals beat the likes of the Steelers, Ravens, Bears, and Packers, yet lose to the 2-7 Raiders? How many of you called that one? Only 3/20 picked the Raiders +9.5 in our pick em league to be exact.  Goes to show that predicting the NFL ain’t easy.

Ninth point: If you took the Bengals, Steelers, and Cardinals first-half lines, you would have went 3-0. The second half of those games is where those games were lost. That shows that we were on the ball with those picks, but they were just met with some misfortune.

We are back with our NFL Week 11 Picks Against the Spread.  Last week was rough.  The underdogs finally had their day.  Our top 8 picks went 3-5 and the games that I personally played went 3-3.  I was able to get back in the game with back-to-back winners in the Sunday Night and Monday Night games, which were both listed in my top 8 picks.  I apologize for the poor start, but we came back with the solid finish to the week.  We’ve had a tremendous amount of success in the NFL this season.  In the past three weeks, our top picks have a 14-4 (77.77%) record.  That amount of success is unprecedented, so get off my case about 1 bad week.  This week I seek to prove all the haters wrong.  I’m sticking to my guns and will continue to bet against teams like the Rams, Browns, Raiders, Bucs, and Chiefs, who are facing solid teams with the exception of the Lions (Cardinals, Lions, Bengals, Saints, and Steelers respectively).  Top spreads ranked by strength are listed at the bottom.  As you can tell, I did more due diligence on each game.  I packed in a ton of analysis into each game and kept my eye on the injury reports.

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS -3

Most people see this matchup and want to jump on the Dolphins +3.  First lesson in sports betting, well maybe not the first, but one of the top 5: always check the injury reports!  Ronnie Brown is out in this game.  I provide links to resources for you to use that I use before picking my games.  Look at the NFL Information section and click the NFL Injury Report link or visit the link.

Ronnie Brown is listed as doubtful, but I think there is a 95% chance that he does not play since this injury may end his season.  Although Miami does have Ricky Williams who is capable of handling the offense himself, without Ronnie Brown, the Dolphins are missing just about 33% of their offensive production and the extra element that makes their offense successful.  Maybe the Dolphins do some wild-cat stuff with Pat White and Ricky Williams, but there’s no doubt about it, that this loss is a huge blow.  Without Ronnie Brown, the Dolphins nearly lost to the Bucs at home.  TE Fasano is also doubtful and S Gibril Wilson may be missing from the Dolphins secondary.

The Panthers have been heating up lately.  They beat the Atlanta and Arizona, two playoff caliber teams, and almost topped the Saints.  They’ve been averaging over 27 points in their last 3 games and give up just 16.3 points per game at home.  The key to the Panthers success is their running game, and that is where Miami’s strength on defense.  Miami is averaging just 3.7 yards per rush (YPR) and allow just 97.6 yards per game, which is 7th in the league.  However, Miami is ranked 27th in the pass.

In order for the Panthers to win this one, Delhomme will have to protect the football, namely from CB Vontae Davis, and WR Steve Smith will need to have a big game.  Due to the Ronnie Brown injury, the Panthers playing good football lately, and the Panthers being at home, I’m taking them to win this game and cover, but it’s not the strongest play of the week.

Prediction: Panthers 23 – Dophins 17

Free Pick: Panthers -3 (Confidence: 2.5/5) (L)

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ DETROIT LIONS -3.5

The battle of two losers and one team will hurt their draft position this week, which is just a bummer. The Browns are horrendous and Quinn and the WRs aren’t on the same page.  At least Stafford can deliver the football well and makes his mistakes only when he has to play from behind or is forced into some 3rd and long situations. I don’t think you have to worry about him playing from behind this week. Look for the Lions to get their second win of the season this week at home. Injuries to be concerned with: Lions possibly missing two stellar LBs, Larry Foot and Ernie Simms.  Both are questionable, so check on their status before taking the Lions. I will need them in the game to help stop the Browns run in order to take this pick.

Prediction: Lions 24 – Browns 13

Free Pick: Lions -3.5 (Confidence: 3/5) (L)

BUFFALO BILLS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS -8

I do not like betting on the Jaguars ever, especially not when they’re giving up 8 points.  I’m surprised they’re actually a 5-4 team, since they feel like a 3-6 team.  They are just 4-5 ATS the spread though.  The Bills are also 4-5 ATS.  When the Jaguars win, the margin of victory is almost always 7 points or less.  They won’t run up the score on you and their defense still has some question marks.  The Bills have been awful against the run and MJD is capable of hurting them.  The Bills have lost both starting corners, which has killed them, and CB Youtboy is also questionable this game.  For the Jaguars, they’ll be without lockdown corner Rashean Mathis.  Due to the loss of the Bills CBs, I’m looking for WR Mike Sims-Walker to have a huge game.  If the Bills weren’t plagued with injuries at CB and elsewhere, I would take the +8, but there’s a chance the Bills get blown out in this one.  However, due to the Jaguars long history of rarely winning by double digits, I cannot recommend this game, so this one is in the “no action” category.

Free Pick: No Action

PITTSBURGH STEELERS -10 @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

I love the Steelers in this one. Not only do I love betting against the Chiefs, but the sole offensive star on their team WR Dwayne Bowe is facing a 4-game suspension for a banned substance violation.  With a tough Steelers D and a KC team without their stud WR, I don’t expect the Chiefs to score more than 6 points in this game. With the Steelers stout run D, the Chiefs will be punting a lot, and the Steelers will get a ton of time with the football, but they’ll likely grind it out with the run, which will limit the amount of points they score in this game.  The Steelers will be fired up after their tough loss to Cincinnati and in order to boost their confidence, I would think that they’ll want to run up that score against  a defense that is 27th in yards allow, 24th in points allowed, 24th against the pass, and 27th against the run.  Even if the Chiefs manage 10-13 points, I still think you’ll get the Steelers cover.  8/8 “experts” at Covers.com are all on board with the Steelers.  One injury to note: Polamalu is doubtful, but I don’t think that matters against the Chiefs.

Prediction: Steelers 24 – Chiefs 6

Free Pick: Steelers -10 (Confidence: 4/5) (L)

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -1 @ BALTIMORE RAVENS

I really want to take the Colts in this one, but my gut is trying to tell me that the Colts are just “due for a loss.” The Ravens lack of offense against a poor Browns was a discouraging sign for their team. The Colts should still be easily able to outscore the Ravens when you take all the Ravens injuries into consideration: CB Rolle (out), LB Ayanbadajo (out), LB Gooden (questionable), LB Suggs (questionable), DE Ngata (questionable), and TE Heap (questionable).  The injuries that hit the Ravens just this past week are Heap, Suggs, and Ngata, which are all significant blows.

For an Indianapolis defense that still ranks 1st in points allowed even after giving up 34 to the Patriots, 15th against the run, 16th against the pass, and 13th in yards allowed, I like my chances of them limiting the Ravens offense and have the Colts 4th ranked offense in terms of points and 3rd ranked offense in terms of points take care of business.  Peyton Manning is just playing out of his mind and his chemistry with Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon, and Dallas Clark just cannot be stopped.  I’m taking Indianapolis here and would even take this spread at -3.5.  Consider -1 a gift.  I would give this one a 4/5 rating, but it only gets a 3.5 rating since you can’t help but feel that they have to get their 1st loss of the season at some point.

Prediction: Colts 24 – Ravens 16

Free Pick: Colts -1 (Confidence: 3.5/5) (W)

ATLANTA FALCONS @ NEW YORK GIANTS -6.5

The Falcons have been a huge disappointment lately, going 1-2 ATS in their last 3.  They covered at home against the dismal Redskins, but we’ve picked them to cover the +4 against Dallas and they were blown out, and they were just beaten badly by the Panthers as 1-point favorites.  The Giants are coming off 3 straight losses to the Cardinals, Eagles, and Chargers, and got their bye week at the right time.  I love home teams off the bye week.  Last week, the home team off the bye week were just 1-2 though.   The Rams covered against the Saints, but bye week at home could not save the Jets or the Raiders.  Atlanta has also struggled on the road with a 1-4 road record, but they’ve had a tough road schedule (NE, NO, DAL, CAR, SF).

The Giants secondary has some issues due to the loss of S Phillips and CB Aaron Ross (questionable), which could allow Roddie White to run wild.  The Giants may also be without DE Justin Tuck.  The Falcons also have to deal with the loss of RB Turner, who is doubtful due to an ankle injury.  Due to all the injuries, this game has a lot of question marks around it.  Due to the Falcons being a poor team on the road, looking pretty bad in the past few weeks, and the Giants being at home off the bye week, I’m leaning towards the Giants here, but I’m worried about their secondary issues.  What makes me like the Giants though is the Falcons give up a ton of yards.  They’re 25th in total yards allowed, 28th in passing yards allowed, and 26th in rushing yards allowed.  With the Giants balanced offense, it shouldn’t be a problem for them to move the football.

Prediction: Giants 24 – Falcons 17

Free Pick: Giants -6.5 (Condidence: 2/5) (L)

SAN FRANSISCO 49ERS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS -6.5

As soon as I give up on the Packers due to their loss against the Bucs and pick the Cowboys to beat them, the Packers come back and get the win over Big D at home to help keep their playoff hopes alive.  I was expecting the Packers offensive line to be dominated by the Cowboys pass rush just like the Packers were dominated in their losses to the Bengals and Bucs, but it just didn’t happen.

The 49ers are coming off a win against a Bears team from last Thursday and have the benefit of a few more days rest. The 49ers offense struggled though. Even after their defense got them 5 INTs, the 49ers just managed 10 points. With CB Nate Clements still out for the 49ers, I like what Aaron Rodgers could do to that 49ers secondary.  The Packers have the chance to put up a decent amount of points and I’ve gained confidence in the Packers defense last week after they held the Cowboys to 7.  With the 49ers scoring just 10 after 5 INTs, I don’t think they can have enough offense to cover in this one.  I’m not very high on this pick since you never know if the Packers offensive line will let them down again, but the Packers looks like the way to go.

Prediction: Packers 24 – 49ers 17

Free Pick: Packers -6.5 (Confidence: 2.5/5) (L)

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS -11

I was contemplating on taking the points here since 11 points is a lot against a team that actually puts up a decent amount of points each game.  The Seahawks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games though.  They could have covered against Arizona last week, but the Cardinals picked off the Seahawks at the goal line before a score could give them the cover.  The Seahawks average 20.8 PPG and I think you can count them to score about 14-20 points in this game, so the question becomes, can the Vikings score 25-31 points in this game? Minnesota is ranked 2nd in the league in points scored with 30.1 PPG and they average 369 yards of offense per game.  Minnesota is 5-3-1 ATS.  I think the Vikings score 27 in this game and if the Seahawks score 17, the Seahawks end up in the money.  With the high spread here, I’m going to have to pass on this one.  I’ll say there’s a 51% chance the Vikings cover and a 49% chance the Seahawks cover, it is just way too close to call.

Free Pick: No Action

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ DALLAS COWBOYS -11

What happened to Dallas last week?  They were coming off four straight wins and looking like a team that could challenge the Saints or Vikings for the NFC crown.  I’m going to have to say that last week was just the case of the Cowboys being a poor road team.  They’re still an incredible home team.  I love betting against the Redskins, they’re 2-6-1 ATS, and the Redskins covered last week solely from the QB Kyle Orton coming out of the game due to the injury and their backup goes 3/13, 13 yards, and 1 INT.

I think you can expect 24-31 points from the Cowboys, so the question becomes, how many points you can expect the Redskins to score.  Can they get the 13-20 points that they’ll need to cover?  Let’s cross out the Redskins 27 points from last week, that game doesn’t count!  The Redskins have scored 17 against ATL, 17 against PHI, 6 against KC, 17 against KC, 16 against TB, 14 against DET, 9 against STL, and 17 against NYG.  In 8 of the Redskins games, they’ve scored 17 points or less in all 8 of those games.  The Cowboys have scored 31.75 points in their 4 home games this season.  Based on these teams averages, I think you are likely to see a 31-17 game, which gives you a 3-point cover.  I think you can count on the Cowboys to hold the Redskisn to 17 or less and you can count on the Cowboys to score 28 points or more.  No doubt it’s close with the high spread, but I’m leaning towards the Cowboys.  The Cowboys don’t have any significant injuries to report and the Redskins will again be without TE Cooley.  Other injuries include RB Portis (doubtful), and DT Haynesworth (questionable).  Haynesworth’s injury occurred just last week, which is a huge boost to the Cowboys in their running game.

Prediction: Cowboys 31 – Redskins 17

Free Pick: Cowboys -11 (Confidence: 2/5) (L)

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -11 @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

The first think I looked at are the trends, which favor NO.  NO is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.  TB is 1-7 ATS the spread in their last 8 home games.  I love betting against the Bucs, but those spreads are getting high and the Bucs are coming off 2 straight covers, while the Saints have not covered the spread in their last 3 games (-11 vs. ATL, -12.5 vs. CAR, and -13.5 @ STL).  QB Josh Freeman took over for the Bucs and had a solid game last week: 16/24, 196 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, and 36 rushing yards.  94% of the public is taking the Saints, but 4/5 “experts” at Covers.com like taking the +11 points on the Bucs.  With the Saints 36.8 PPG average, I don’t see how you bet against them.  They managed 28 points last week against the Rams, including 7 points via a kickoff return.  2 Drew Brees INTs cost them the cover in that game, but I was surprised the Rams were able to move the football effectively against their defense.  The Saints have scored more than 45 or more points in 4 games, including twice on the road, how ridiculous is that?  I think you can point on them to score 31 points, and possibly even more, and I doubt the Bucs will be able to score 20 points against them with their rookie QB.  However, the injuries to their defense have left them vulnerable.  CB Tracey Porter is out and with DT Sederick Ellis out, that hurts their run D.  Fortunately, Pro Bowl S Darren Sharper should return this week to help that D.  I still think you can count on the Bucs on scoring 20 or less and the Saints to score 31 or more, so I’m leaning towards giving up the points to take the Saints.  The Bucs are still 28th in points allowed (28.4 PPG) and 29th in yards allowed (379), so I have to go with the Saints.

Prediction: Saints 34 – Buccaneers 17

Free Pick: Saints -11 (Confidence: 3/5) (W)

ARIZONA CARDINALS -9 @ ST. LOUIS RAMS

The Rams are 4-5 ATS and 3-1 ATS in their last 4.  I’m quite surprised.  The Cardinals have been a good team to bet on recently too: 6-3 ATS and 5-1 ATS in their last 6.  The Cardinals offense is back as they’ve averaged 31 PPG in their last 3 games.  What is even more impressive with the Cardinals is how they’ve played on the road.  They are 4-0 on the road and have just been crushing teams.  41-21 in CHI, 24-7 in NYG, 27-3 in SEA, 31-17 in JAC.  With the Rams giving up 27.7 PPG and scoring just 11.1 PPG, I think you can expect the Cardinals to cover fairly comfortably in this one.  I’m anticipating the Cardinals to score 28-35 points, and the Rams to score less than 17.  I think this is a solid spread to take.  Only 5/9 “experts” at Covers.com are picking the Cardinals, but 94% of the public is riding them this week.

Prediction: Cardinals 31 – Rams 16

Free Pick: Cardinals -9 (Confidence: 4/5) (L)

NEW YORK JETS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -10.5

When the Patriots are handed a tough loss, they usually respond well.  They’re a perfect 5-0 at home, but just 3-2 ATS there.  NE is averaging 32 PPG in their last last 3, 32.8 PPG at home, and 28.8 PPG at home.  The Jets are 4-5 ATS this season and just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games.  With Mark Sanchez throwing 12 INTs and just 9 TDs and completing just 53.5% of his passes, I’m beginning to like this matchup against Tom Brady.  When the Patriots faced the Jets earlier this season, it was in week 2 before Brady was 100%, and the Jets won 16-9.  That was also when the Jets defense was legit.  Since that time, the Jets defense has been hurting, especially after the loss of NT Kris Jenkins who was the key to their stellar run defense.  The Jags moved the football on the Jets with ease.  I think you can count on the Patriots scoring 27-31 points in this game, so they’ll have to hold the Jets to under 17 if you want them to cover.  I don’t like this game with the spread.  It’s a division game and it should be tight.  I think the Pats have the better chance of covering by being at home, being pissed off after last week’s loss, and Mark Sanchez likely throwing a pick or two.  The Jets could potentially hold the Patriots to 24 points and a mere 2 TDs could get them to cover, but I’m leaning towards the Patriots in this one and I’ll set their chances of covering the spread at 60-65%.  Again, this spread is just too high for me to take it.

Prediction: Patriots 31 – Jets 17

Free Pick: Patriots -10.5 (Confidence: 2/5) (W)

CINCINNATI BENGALS -9.5 @ OAKLAND RAIDERS

The Raiders managed just 10 points against the Chiefs.  If the Bengals could hold the Steelers to just 4 FGs and 0 TDs, they should hold the Raiders to 10 points or less, especially since the Raiders average just 9.8 PPG.  It shouldn’t be a problem for the Bengals to score 20 points here.  Carson Palmer has it going on and can give the Bengals their 8th win of the season and in control of their own destiny.  I’ll take Carson Palmers 14/7 TD to INT ratio over JaMarcus Rusell’s 2 TD/9 INT ratio any day. JaMarcus will be benched anway in favor of Gradkowski, but he was his stat lines don’t get much better than Russell: 5/9, 49 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs.  The Bengals just need to stop the Raiders running game and they had no problems stopping the Steelers.  5/9 “experts” at Covers.com are favoring the Raiders, which is odd, but 95% of the public is on the Bengals.

Prediction: Bengals 23 – Raiders 9

Free Pick: Bengals -9.5 (Confidence: 4/5) (L)

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -2.5 @ DENVER BRONCOS

The Broncos are on a three-game losing streak, but the good news is that QB Kyle Orton is probable for them in this game.  San Diego is back to looking legit again with 4-straight wins, going 3-1 ATS in that span.  The OAK and KC wins are nothing to brag about, but beating the Giants on the road, well as the Eagles were both impressive wins.  The defense is holding their own and their offense is clicking the way it should with LT, Darren Sproles, Antonio Gates, and Vincent Jackson.

Denver’s stellar defense from the first 6 games, has broken down in their last 3 games.  They’ve now given up 28.3 PPG and 351.7 YPG in their last 3 losses, while their offense has scored just 11.3 PPG and managed just 249.0YPG.  I think this is a very favorable spread to take San Diego.  I’m not concerned with these teams first 6 games of the season since I care about “what have you done for me lately.”

With both teams at 6-3, the AFC West is up for grabs, and San Diego is finally getting the fire in their belly to emerge out of the division as champions.  Another thing to keep in mind, the Broncos defeated the Chargers in San Diego on Monday Night 34-23 during week 5 in the NFL, but keep in mind that 2 TDs were from Eddie Royal on a kickoff and a punt return.  I don’t expect that to occur again.  Without those TDs, the Chargers would have won that one 23-20.  Another huge advantage for the Chargers is the injuries to QB Kyle Orton and WR Brandon Marshall (banged up neck and back, but likely to play).

Update: With QB Kyle Orton out, the spread has moved from -2.5 to 5.  Good thing I got this one locked in.  With Orton out for Denver, I’m quite confident in the Chargers and have moved the game to #2 in my top 5.

Prediction: Chargers 24 – Broncos 13

Free Pick: Chargers -2.5 (Confidence: 4/5) (W)

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -3 @ CHICAGO BEARS

I’m an Eagles fan and severely disappointed in them after 2 losses.  I warned you that the Eagles suck when they play on the west coast last week and we saw that play out yet again. The Eagles lost to the Bears last year in an epic game and that’s why this rematch is featured on Sunday Night.  The Bears looked pretty pathetic last week against the 49ers and were also severely disappointing against the Cardinals, Bengals, and Falcons from previous weeks.  I like the Eagles chances in this one.  88% of the money is on the Eagles here and Covers.com has 7/8 of their experts taking the Birds.  Their inability to get into the endzone last week is extremely discouraging.  You’re not going to beat the Chargers kicking field goals once you get inside the 10.  The Eagles defense was also dissappointing last week, but I think you can blaim that on the trip out west.  I think you’ll see a much more focused Eagles team on Sunday night knowing that this loss could significantly hamper their playoff aspirations.

Prediction: Eagles 24 – Bears 20

Free Pick: Eagles -3 (Confidence:3/5, DISCLAIMER: I’m an Eagles fan) (W)

TENNESSEE TITANS @ HOUSTON TEXANS -4.5

The Titans are on the right track, but the Texans will be at home off the bye week, and have been also been playing at a high level lately. The Texans are 3-1 in their last 4 and 3-0-1 ATS in that time. Their sole loss was to the Colts by a mere FG. The Texans running game used to be their weakness, but they’ve averaged just 76 rushing yards per game in their last 3 games.  I don’t like this spread at all.  I’m counting on the Texans to win, but it may be by a mere FG or a TD, it’s just a tough call to make.  55% of the public’s money is favoring the Titans and that’s who I’m leaning towards in this one.  In what should be a close game, I’ll take the +4.5 and count on Chris Johnson to deliver another solid game against a Houston team that he destroyed earlier in the season.  However, although Chris Johnson won the battle, it was Andre Johnson who won the war as he helped his team outduel the Titans when they played in week 3 in Tennessee and the Texans won 34-31.

Prediction: Texans 24 – Titans 20

Free Pick: Titans +4.5 (Confidence: 1/5) (W)

TOP 5 SPREADS RANKED BY STRENGTH:

There are 8 spreads I would consider and the rest look like garbage.  I’m going to continue trying to go after the crappy teams like the Rams, Raiders, Chiefs, Bucs, and Browns.  The Colts -1 just seems too favorable to pass up with the injuries on that Ravens D.

1.) Steelers -10 over CHIEFS (L)

2.) Chargers -2.5 over BRONCOS ( * QB Orton will not play) (W)

3.) Bengals -9.5 over RAIDERS (L)

4.) Cardinals -9 over RAMS (L)

5.) Colts -1 over RAVENS (W)

Other Picks to Consider: LIONS -3.5 over BROWNS (* Out of top 5 due to LB Sims being out) (L), Saints -11 over BUCCANEERS (W), PACKERS -6.5 over 49ers (L)

DISCLAIMER: If you bet on these picks just because we do, you may get punched in the face by Sinbad in a rehabilitation facility (reference to It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia, Season 4).

We may have been down, but we certainly are not out!  Back-to-back Sunday and Monday night winners baby!!!!  THE PASS RUSH conducted a little damage control.  I have to admit that we, along with most people placing wagers this Sunday, got a little banged up on Sunday (during the day at least), but if you kept the faith, and hung in there with us, you hopefully recouped your losses and then some.

Week In Review: Our top pick of the Saints -13.5 over the Rams didn’t work out due to the defense surrendering 23 points to a team that typically scores 6 points, as well as 2 INTs from Drew Brees.  We had some saving grace with the Titans as our 2nd strongest pick of the week to help even things out, but the Dallas over Green Bay pick failed to pan out as well.  The Broncos -3.5 over the Redskins was another play that I was pretty high on, and it was looking money after the 1st quarter when the Broncos had a 14-7 lead.  Unfortunatey, Kyle Orton was injured in the 2nd quarter and had to leave the game.   With Denver’s backup taking snaps, it was all downhill after that point, and a 3/13, 13 yards, 0 TDs, and 1 INT stat line are all you need to know about Chris Simms’ performance.

However, after a rough day, we got you back in the game if you boldly followed us into the Sunday and Monday night games. DOUBLE STAMP! THE PASS RUSH took down back-to-back night games to recoup all losses.  We got the cover with the Patriots +3 and it was all the sweeter that they lost due to my hatred for the Patriots.  We also got the cover with the Ravens -10.5. After our top 4 picks went 1-3, we rebounded with the Patriots and Ravens, to end end our week 3-3 and prevented any damage to the position that we’ve worked hard building up over the past few weeks.

To make the day even sweeter, my 1st 2-unit NHL play of the season hit at THE ONETIMER on Monday and with the 3 plays made, we booked 1.4 units of profit.  I was very high on the Penguins over the Ducks Monday night and the game hit with ease, Pittsburgh getting the 5-2 win.  Looks like the books didn’t catch onto Malkin’s return and it was easy money.  I have 3 plays for you tomorrow.  They may not be as strong as the Pittsburgh play on Monday night, but I still like them.  Check out THE ONETIMER.

Brandon also hit 2/3 of his college basketball plays on Sunday, remember to keep tabs on those at THE TRIPLE DOUBLE.

This rebound has me feeling like the Karate Kid.

The books were due for a comeback. They’ve been dominated by THE PASS RUSH for three straight weeks and today was their day. It seemed as if every underdog was able to cover. So far this week, 9 out of 13 underdogs covered.

The way the spreads looked, I don’t think I would have played it any different. I loved the Saints pick and did not see the Rams as a potential threat to score 23 points when they average 6.3 PPG. The Broncos should have defeated the Redskins.  They had a 14-7 lead thanks to 2 deep TD passes from Kyle Orton, but Kyle Orton was injured in the 2nd quarter, had to leave the game, and the Broncos backup QB was completely worthless. The Packers lose to the Bucs last week and dominate the Cowboys this week? What is going on in the NFL?

In our pick ‘em league, 19/20 people picked the Saints -13.5 over the Rams, so don’t point the finger, we were all fooled. 20/20 picked Denver -3.5 over the Redskins, but the Orton injury cost us that one.

In THE PASS RUSH pick ‘em league, only 2 out of 20 teams finished above .500, so that tells you just what kind of week it truly was.

At least the Titans and Patriots prevented what would have could have been a painful week.   Another crazy week in the NFL. Every week can’t be easy.