NFL Picks

WEEK 8 SUMMARY

The posted picks went 1-2 ATS this week, but I dominated the pick ‘em league with an 8-4 ATS record. I now sit in 8th among the 32 active teams with a 57-51 record ATS. Well played by The Vaidya Twist who now ranks 1st ahead of perenial favorites Deez Nuts and Mempis Gangstas. Although I missed on the Saints and Panthers picks, I made some of that back with my 4:00 pick thanks to an easy win with the Bengals (-3) over the Seahawks.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-3.5) @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Tonight’s Monday Night game is between AFC West rivals, Kansas City Chiefs and San Diego Chargers. When was the last time the Chiefs had a Monday Night home game? Oh that’s right, that was last year when the Chiefs upset the Chargers in the opening week 21-14 as 4-point dogs. The Kansas City crowd will be jacked up again for this one. King posted why he likes the Chiefs. He makes some compelling arguments.

For purposes of the pick ‘em league, I’ll stick with the Chargers (-3.5). As far as my money is concerned, I will be passing on the game, as I don’t want to take the Chargers (-3.5) on the road on Monday Night. You know the rule: don’t bet against a home dog on Monday Night (unless Tom Brady is playing the Dolphins). I’m not sold on the Chiefs (+3.5), but if you tease the spread up to Chiefs (+10.5) with the over 37, it makes the game more interesting for me.

I have a bit of a gut feeling that this will be a high-scoring contest. …

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We have an AFC West showdown tonight as the San Diego Chargers travel to Kansas City to face off against the Chiefs.  Right now the current line has the Chargers giving Kansas City 3 points, while the over/under hasn’t moved much and sits at 44.5.

First glance has this game looking like blowout with the first place Chargers against the hapless Kansas City Chiefs.  The Chargers are currently at a 4-2 record, but some could say that they are the worst NFL division leader at the current time.  Their only games against good teams came on the road in New York against the Jets as well as in New England against the Pats.  Who have they beat? Well the Minnesota Vikings, Kansas City Chiefs (earlier this year by 3 points), Miami Dolphins, and the Denver Broncos.  None of those were even close to being impressive wins.

Let’s just say the start the Kansas City Chiefs had to the season is one to forget, losing by a combined score of 89-10 in their first two match-ups.  Things turned around though when they traveled to San Diego to face off against the Chargers, only losing by a field goal. Following that week, they rattled off three straight wins and with a win tonight will be tied for first place in the division, crazy to think about.

San Diego isn’t the same San Diego that we have been used to.  The Chiefs are hot and are going to be ready to go tonight playing at home on a Monday Night in a crazy packed stadium.

I have a source on a 17-5-0 ATS run currently who is on …

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Last week we only posted two picks, Steelers (-3.5) over Cardinals and Packers (-9) over Vikings. We split those picks, hitting on the Steelers, but falling short on the Packers who came away with a 6-point win. I didn’t care for too many games on last week’s card since I saw most as toss ups. There’s a handful of games that I like this week. There are several games on the cusp of being posted such as DET (-3) @ DEN, NE (-3) @ PIT, WAS @ BUF (-6), CLE @ SF (-8.5), IND @ TEN (-9), JAC @ HOU (-9.5), but I’m just not completely sold yet. Here’s what I got for you so far.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-13) @ ST. LOUIS RAMS

The Saints demolished the Colts last week and I didn’t want to pick the game based on my notion that the Saints don’t do well against high spreads. WRONG. They beat the Colts 62-7. What is this? Boise State vs. Colorado State? The Rams will likely be without Sam Bradford and their starting left tackle and former 1st-round pick Jason Smith is also doubtful. If Bradford is out, I would be all over the Saints. The Rams offense is anemic, averaging just 9.8 PPG. I can’t see them scoring more than 10 points without Bradford. The Rams defense is also giving up an average of 28.5 PPG. There hasn’t been a better team to bet against this year, the Rams are 0-6 ATS.

Prediction: Saints 34 – Rams 10

Free Pick Against the Spread: Saints -13 (Confidence: 4/5)

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS (-3.5)

I’m glad to see the Panthers get another …

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In the last three weeks we’ve posted a 6-4 ATS record for posted picks. I hit on my top play in the Oakland Raiders (-6.5) over the Cleveland Browns, but I fell victim to two upsets in the Bucs over the Saints and 49ers over Lions. In the pick ‘em league, I did much better, scoring an 8-5 ATS record and moving up in the standings. The Bears and Jets were easy hits, so hopefully you played the the Sunday and Monday night games and made some easy coin.

After taking a quick scan at the week 7 lineup, there’s not much that I like. Most of these games I see as toss ups (Ex: Chargers @ Jets, Seahawks @ Browns, Falcons @ Lions, Redskins @ Panthers, Bears @ Bucs, Broncos @ Dolphins, Texans @ Titans).

We’re left picking from Steelers (-3.5) @ Cardinals, Packers (-9) @ Vikings, Colts @ Saints (-14). I’m not going to lay 14 to take the Saints, so we’re pretty much down to Steelers and and the Packers. Might as well stick to the two best teams playing this week.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-9) @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS

It doesn’t matter if the Packers are playing at home or on the road, they are just dominating the NFL right now and easily looking like the NFL’s best team. They’re also 5-1 ATS this year. Green Bay destroyed the Vikings on the road last year 31-3. The Vikings will have to rely on their newly-named starter Christian Ponder to get something going for this struggling Vikings offense. Ponder will be making his first NFL career start and he didn’t fare too well against the …

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We put the system to the test for the second straight week, this time coming out a tiny bit more successful than the first posting a 4-3-1 ATS record. This is what we have for Week 7, GOOD LUCK!

Chicago Bears @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Bears 23.18555 – Buccaneers 18.52264

Washington Redskins @ Carolina Panthers: Redskins 20.93795 – Panthers 18.83872

Seattle Seahawks @ Cleveland Browns: Seahawks 19.56502 – Browns 21.18917

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Arizona Cardinals: Steelers 21.31028 – Cardinals 16.486

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans: Texans 19.45904 – Titans 21.20014

Atlanta Falcons @ Detroit Lions: Falcons 17.56672 – Lions 32.7658

Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders: Chiefs 15.33188 – Raiders 34.61589

St. Louis Rams @ Dallas Cowboys: Rams 10.53784 – Cowboys 29.21914

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings: Packers 32.42156 – Vikings 18.55227

Indianapolis Colts @ New Orleans Saints: Colts 18.76741 – Saints 39.59327

San Diego Chargers @ New York Jets: Chargers 19.96875 – Jets 26.24908

Denver Broncos @ Miami Dolphins: Broncos 22.71929 – Dolphins 20.63871

Baltimore Ravens @ Jacksonville Jaguars: Ravens 28.76889 – Jaguars 9.900965

Plays resulting from scores:

TOP PLAY (off the Vegas line by the most points):

Raiders (-4) L

OTHERS:

Lions (-3.5) L

Panthers (+3) W

Jets (+2.5) W

Cowboys (-11.5) W

Saints (-14) W

Ravens (-8)

Let’s hope for another successful week!…

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We’ve put together back-to-back winning weeks in the NFL. In the last two weeks, we’ve posted a  5-2 ATS record. We’re looking to pull off a trifecta of winning weeks. I’ve got three picks for you this week and I’m liking them all, handing out 4/5 star picks like it’s Thanksgiving. Feel free to disagree, but we showed the haters last week who tried to call me out on my Chargers (-4) over Broncos and Bengals (+1) over Jaguars picks. This week I’m going with the Lions, Raiders, and Saints.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ DETROIT LIONS (-4)

I have been riding the Lions all year this season as I’ve been hyping them beyond belief the entire season. They’re 4-0-1 ATS. Why stop now? The Lions could very possibly have the best defensive line. Don’t think so? Name another. 11th in sacks, 4th in interceptions, 8th in forced fumbles, 12th in yards allowed, and 4th in points allowed. Does that sounds like the Detroit Lions to you? The 49ers have a very good defense too, no doubt about that. They’re 2nd in points allowed, 13th in yards allowed, and 5th against the rush, but you know what? They’re ranked 23rd against the pass, giving up 264.4 yards-per-game. And they’re facing some fella named Calvin Johnson and his 451 yards (90.9 YPG) and 9 TDs (1.8 TDs/Game).

I’m not overly impressed with the 49ers offense despite their dubious 28.4 PPG (ranked 7th in the NFL). Their yardage per game tells the true story (300 YPG ranked 27th in the NFL). They rely on the run where they’re ranked 12th to bail out their sorry passing game …

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I did a little bit of research online and found out a way to calculate predicted scores of these NFL games by the week. This system goes off of both teams’ points forced, points allowed, the points forced by all of their opponents thus far, and points allowed by all their opponents this season. You end up getting an offensive and defensive number that tells you whether or not they’re performing up with the league average in offense and defense, therefore spitting out a score for the game. These are what I got for Week 6 along with plays:

Cleveland Browns @ Oakland Raiders: Browns 18.68 – Raiders 30.98

St. Louis Rams @ Green Bay Packers: Rams 11.08 – Packers 40.07

Dallas Cowboys @ New England Patriots: Cowboys 26.01 – Patriots 34.75

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Jaguars 8.14 – Steelers 22.42

Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons: Panthers 23.90 – Falcons 24.48

Indianapolis Colts @ Cincinnati Bengals: Colts 12.9o – Bengals 30.61

Buffalo Bills @ New York Giants: Bills 35.76 – Giants 26.76

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Saints 32.11 – Buccaneers 21.14

Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins: Eagles 17.23 – Redskins 24.19

Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens: Texans 16.14 – Ravens 27.87

San Francisco 49ers @ Detroit Lions: 49ers 22.34 – Lions 25.02

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears: Vikings 19.41 – Bears 21.68

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets: Dolphins 17.27 – Jets 27.87

Plays resulting from scores:

Raiders (-6) W

Packers (-14.5) W

Panthers (+5.5) L

Bengals (-7) *UPDATED LINE (-6) W

Bills (+3) P

Saints (-4.5) L

Redskins (+1) *UPDATED LINE (+3) L

Ravens (-6.5) W

4-3-1 overall — BIGGEST …

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