Football Picks Against the Spread

We are back with our NFL picks for week 13. I don’t like any home teams on this week’s card, which has forced me to pick five road team. That makes me a bit weary — you know that one or two of these road dogs will pull off a surprising upset, but who will it be? Nobody knows yet. I love the Falcons, Ravens, and Jets this week. Here is what I have on tap.

ATLANTA FALCONS (-2.5) @ HOUSTON TEXANS

With the Texans starting quarterback and backup quarterback both on the IR, how does Vegas have the Texans as mere 2.5-point underdogs? The Texans will have to turn to rookie Taylor Yates, their 2011 5th-round selection out of UNC. After coming into the Jaguars game after Leinart got hurt, Yates thew 8/15 for 70 yards to hold onto the 20-10 lead the Texans had. The Texans put up 0 points in the second half. Atlanta has won their last 5 of 6 games, so I like their chances in this one against the Texans 3rd string QB. All eyes will be on Arian Foster and if they can stop him, they should win this game. I’m expecting the Falcons to dominate this game.

Prediction: Falcons 27 – Texans 17

Pick Against the Spread: Falcons -1 (Confidence: 4/5)

NEW YORK JETS (-1) @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Quite a favorable spread as I feel the Jets should be 3.5-point favorites. The line opened at -1 and has since moved to -3 at most books, but you can still find the line at -1 at some outfits.The Redskins have been awful. They just recently snapped a 6-game …

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We split our Sunday picks going 2-2 ATS after going 2-1 ATS on Thanksgiving. We hit on the Panthers and Falcons, but came up short on the Bengals and Steelers. If the Steelers didn’t fumble the football in the endzone at the beginning of the game, the score could have ended 20-9 instead of 13-9 giving the Steelers the cover. We came out even so no biggie, let’s pick the Monday Night game between the Giants and Saints.

NEW YORK GIANTS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-7.5)

You know I love teasing games on Monday Night. I’m not a fan of Saints -7.5 since the Giants offense can keep pace with Drew Brees. The Giants average about 23 points while the Saints average 31 points, but the Saints 62 points against the Colts inflates that number. Both defenses are giving up 22.8 PPG. Eli Manning outdueled Tom Brady on the road, but has since lost two straight games to the 49ers and Eagles, losing both of those games by a touchdown.

With the Saints undefeated at home, I don’t see them dropping this one, but Manning has the passing attack to keep this one close throughout the game and possibly covering the spread. I think this is a good candidate to take the points, but why bet against the Saints at home? The Saints are 4-0 ATS at home this year covering against the Bucs, Colts, Texans, and Chicago. I hate the Giants since I’m an Eagles fan and don’t have much faith in them on the road in New Orleans, so I’ll tease the Saints to a pick ‘em and take a look at the …

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Hope everyone had a Happy Thanksgiving. We built up our bank role going 2-1 ATS with our Thanksgiving special thanks to the Packers and Ravens. Here are some quick picks for Sunday. My favorite plays are the Steelers and Panthers and I’ll throw in mediocre picks on the Falcons and Bengals. The spreads are a bit too high to make those quality plays, so you may want to tease them together instead.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ ATLANTA FALCONS (-9.5) 

I love taking the Falcons at home. With Adrian Peterson out, the Vikings offense will struggle to get going while the Falcons should cruise to an easy victory. This is also a good candidate to tease with another game such as the Steelers over the Chiefs or Bengals over the Browns.

Prediction: Falcons 27 – Vikings 17

Pick Against the Spread: Falcons -9.5 (Confidence: 3/5)

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS (-7)

I’m loving the Bengals this year. A.J. Green will be back this week. The Bengals beat the Browns earlier this season 27-17 on the road and I expect a similar outcome.

Prediction: Bengals 24 – Browns 13

Pick Against the Spread: Bengals -7 (Confidence: 3/5)

CAROLINA PANTHERS (-3.5) @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Cam Newton is due for a win. His defense has been the teams Achilles heal though. Hopefully his defense doesn’t let him down again. Points will be easy to come by for the Panthers against one of the worst teams against the run. With the Colts offensive woes, I don’t think the Panthers have to worry about getting outscored here. The Panthers should dominate this game.

Prediction: Panthers 31 – Colts 13

Pick Against the …

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Happy Thanksgiving everyone! As readers of the site know, THE PASS RUSH tends to heat up around Thanksgiving time. Last year our Thanksgiving picks went 3-0 ATS to follow up a 4-0 ATS the week before. Last week, we hit all of our picks going 2-0-1 on Sunday and nailing the Monday night game to go 3-0 in our last 3 Monday Night Picks. The last week has positioned us to make a huge run in the last week of November going into Decemeber.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-6) @ DETROIT LIONS

We finally get to see a competitive game on Thanksgiving featuring the Lions. We have the 10-0 Green Bay Packers vs. 7-3 Detroit Lions. I don’t think the Lions have played on Thanksgiving with a winning record in over a decade. With both teams averaging over 30 PPG, I am excited to watch this game. I’m definitely leaning Packers, but I’ve been singing the Lions praises since before the season even started. The Packers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games, while the Lions are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games. In the last 10 games between these teams, the Packers are 7-3 ATS. I’m going to go with the better team and the team with a history of winning this matchup, the Green Bay Packers. No doubt that Lions are a much better football team capable of finally beating the Packers, but Aaron Rodgers is just a machine. He will put scoring drive after drive together and keep the Lions offense off the field as best he can. 63% of the money is on the Packers in this one.…

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It was a great week for me as I hit my top 2 picks with the 3 posted picks going 2-0-1 against the spread. I hit on the 49ers/Packers teaser, hit on the Bears, and the Falcons pick pushed.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-17)

I’m going with the Patriots tonight. The last time the Chiefs played on Monday Night, I took the Chiefs in a teaser over the Chargers and ended up hitting. The Chiefs even won outright 23-20 as 3.5-point dogs. I’ll go with Brady almost every time. The line opened at Patriots -14 and moved to -17 so the public is all over the Patriots with the high spread. I am fully expecting a rout tonight with Matt Cassel out for the Chiefs just like everyone else is. The Chiefs may also be without their best corner Brandon Flowers. I’ve already had a big week and hate high spreads so this is going to be just a small play.

Prediction: Patriots 38 – Chiefs 10

Pick Against the Spread: Patriots -17 (Confidence: 3/5)…

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In the pick ‘em league, yours truly ended up numero uno last week with 11 wins for a 11-5 ATS record bringing my season record to 74-66 ATS. The Monday Night play also helped me make up some ground on the Seahawks upset over the Ravens. There’s not a whole lot of games that I like this week. There’s a couple road teams in pick ‘em games that I would consider, BUF (+1) @ MIA, JAC (+1) @ CLE, OAK (-1) @ MIN, but I view them as coin tosses. Here is what I have on tap for you this week. I’m not crazy about my two straight-up picks, but really like the Packers/49ers teaser.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ CHICAGO BEARS (-3.5)

When picking teams, finding teams carrying momentum is always a smart move and the team with the most momentum in the NFL right now is the Chicago Bears who are coming into this one with 4-straight wins. The problem with momentum teams is not getting a favorable spread since if this game was played three weeks ago, the game would likely be a pick ‘em instead of the Bears as 3.5-point favorites. After the Bears Monday Night loss to the Lions, they’ve had dominating wins over the Vikings, Bucs, Eagles, and Lions. The Bears are putting up a surprising 31.4 PPG at home and limiting teams to 18.2 PPG.

San Diego, on the other hand, hasn’t performed well on the road. Their defense is giving up 27.2 PPG when travelling. With the Chargers key defensive playmakers (Castillo and Phillips) still out, I think you go Bears here. The Chargers are also likely without …

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I led the pick ‘em league this week with a 10-5 ATS record, but the posted picks went 1-2 ATS which I apologize for. I hit on the Texans pick, but fell victim to another shocking upset with the Seahawks topping the Ravens. Logic would dictate that if the Ravens beat the Steelers twice, and the Steelers beat the Bengals, and the Bengals destroyed the Seahawks, that the Ravens should destroy the Seahawks, but logic doesn’t always play out in the NFL, especially when trying to pick road favorites to win. But we hit on the Falcons as road favorites last week and hit on the Texans as road favorites this week — you win some, you lose some. Onto Monday Night.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS (-13)

I would lean Packers at home on Monday Night. Their offense is just dominating, but the Vikings have improved since they’ve put in Christian Ponder at QB. I don’t liking giving up so many points since a 7-13 point win by the Packers is within the realm of possibilities. I would tease the Packers down to -6 and tease the over/under from 49.5 to 42.5 and take the over. The over is 7-2 in the Packers last 9 home games, but the under  is 7-1 in the Vikings last 8 road games. I was originally leaning picking the under 56.5 since it’s just a ton of points, but I think the Packers are due for 30 and the Vikings are due for 20, so one more TD would bust up the card. The game should end in a minimum score of 24-20, 27-17, or 31-13 to …

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