NFL Picks

My week 8 was solid. I hit my top play in a teaser with the Patriots/49ers. It was an easy winner. Overall, our picks went 7-7 ATS. Let’s take a look into what week 9 has in store. I’m not crazy about any particular spread as I’ll come out merely recommending a teaser with Chargers (-1)/Packers (-3) and Packers (-3)/Texans (-3). A few road favorites like the Lions (-3.5) or Broncos (-3.5) also look tempting.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-8) over Kansas City Chiefs — Confidence: 6/10 — When these teams faced each other earlier this season, the Chargers absolutely dominated the Chiefs in Kansas City. Now the game will be played in San Diego. Based on the previous game, most people would be confident laying the points and taking the Chargers at home. However, I’m not so impressed with this Chargers team that has lost three straight games (@ NO, vs. DEN, @ CLE). Most division games will be close. However, the Chiefs are in shambles and will likely get destroyed just like their previous contest. Teasing this spread down to Chargers (-1) to pair with another game looks like the choice to make in this one.

Carolina Panthers (+3) over WASHINGTON REDSKINS — Confidence: 6/10 — What a game this will be when Cam Newton squares off against Robert Griffin III. Newton continues to suffer heartache after heartache as his defense lets him down every single week. If the weather clears up, this looks to be a shootout as both teams are at the mercy of their defenses. I believe the Panthers losing streak comes to an end this week as Cam will get the victory.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-10) over Arizona Cardinals — Confidence: 6/10 — The Packers …

Last week our picks went 8-5 ATS. If not for a half-point miss by the Bears due a late garbage TD, it could have put us at 9-4 ATS and made for a very strong week. There’s plenty of games to dissect this week and lots of opportunities to tease lines to where I like them. Patriots/49ers looks like a solid teaser, as well as Redskins (+11.5)/Under 53 @ Pittsburgh where it should be raining on Sunday.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-14.5) over Jacksonville Jaguars — Confidence: 7/10 — I’m going to avoid this game due to the high spread, but I’ll have to take the Packers here with the Jags non-existent offense and Maurice Jones-Drew out. I don’t see how the Jags score 10 points, while the Packers should easily put up 24+. Packers (-7.5) may be worth throwing into a teaser as the Packers should have that cover wrapped up easily by the 3rd quarter.

NEW YORK JETS (-1) over Miami Dolphins — Confidence: 7/10 — The Jets bested the Dolphins earlier this season in Miami. It was a tight game. The Jets have been playing better football over the last three weeks, nearly beating the Patriots on the road last week, destroying the Colts at home, and hanging in there with the Texans. I like the Jets to take this one at home.

San Diego Chargers (-3) over CLEVELAND BROWNS — Confidence: 6/10 — I have to take the Chargers here, but this is potentially a trap game. Vegas has been giving the Browns lines that indicates that they believe they are a much stronger team than their 1-6 SU record indicates. The Browns are 3-3-1 ATS. Their first win came via a 34-24 home win over the …

It was a pretty solid week for me in week 7.  I was 8-5 ATS, with a very solid 1:00 going 6-2 ATS to start off Sunday strong. The Bears missed covering by a half point on Monday Night, which could have been the icing on the cake had they covered. The Vikings (-6.5) was my top play in week 7 and put me ahead nicely for the week. We start off Thursday Night Football with the very same team that came through for me in the clutch in week 7.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-5.5)

I’m loving the Vikings this year. They made me some money last week as they were my top pick — hence, the Percy Harvin image on the week 7 picks against the spread. The Vikings are now 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games and 3-1 ATS at home.

The Bucs put up a hell of a fight against the Saints last week and nearly tied the game as time expired, but a penalty was called when a WR stepped out of the endzone and then came back into the endzone to catch a TD pass from Josh Freeman. The penalty whiped out the game-tying play and ended the game. Tough loss for the Bucs. The good news for the Bucs though is that their offense is starting to click and that could mean trouble for the Vikings tonight.

I thought the public would be favoring the Vikings in this one, but that’s not the case as 58% of the public likes the Bucs to cover. I’m expecting a tight game and would not recommend laying the points. I would consider taking the points, but I like the Vikings to win …

We got back on the right track on Thursday with our picks. No matter which way you sliced it, they were all winners. We called the under 37.5, Seahawks (+8), and teaser of 49ers (-1)/Under 44.5 or Seahawks (+15)/Under 44.5. Let’s see what we can take down on Sunday. There are not too many spreads that I love this week, we just have a handful of picks that I would rate a 6 or 7 out of 10. Games not ranked by confidence but by time.

BUFFALO BILLS (-3) over Tennessee Titans — Confidence: 6/10 — I can see this game going either way, but I’ll lean Bills since the Titans just have not played well at all on the road. Titans are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-6.5) over Arizona Cardinals — Confidence: 7/10 — I like the Vikings here who have played excellent football at home. They upset the 49ers at home at beat the Titans 30-7. You’ve heard me bash the Cardinals offense before, who stand to struggle against the Vikings defense this week. Last year, these teams played in Minnesota and the Vikings came out on top 34-10.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-2) over Cleveland Browns — Confidence: 6/10 — I’ll go with the Colts at home. The one downside to this pick is the Colts run D. Will they have an answer for Trent Richardson or will they be able to contain him? Maurice Jones-Drew destroyed the Colts, as did Shonn Greene. Before jumping on the Colts, you’ll have to think long and hard about the Trent Richardson vs. Colts run defense matchup.

Baltimore Ravens (+7) over HOUSTON TEXANS — Confidence: 6/10 — How will the Ravens be able to bounce back …

What a wild week it was in Week 6. Tons of upsets and a very good week for the dogs. I took Ravens (-3) as my top play and missed  by a point when the Cowboys scored a touchdown in the last two minutes when the Ravens were holding an 8-point lead. The most significant upset last week was the Seahawks topping the Patriots in Seattle after scoring a TD in the last two minutes thanks to Russell Wilson chucking the deep ball to Sidney Rice who outright beat his man. The only upsets I can take pride in nailing were the Browns over Bengals, Giants over the 49ers, and Bills over Cardinals.

SEATTLE SEAHAKWS (+8) @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

The NFC West is up for grabs tonight. The public is pretty much split on this one 50/50. I like taking the points as Seattle’s D is the real deal and should keep the game close. The Seahawks D is ranked 2nd in points allowed with a stingy 15.5 PPG and 4th in yards allowed. They’ve faced some strong offenses to boot — Green Bay, Dallas, New England, and Carolina.

San Fran’s offense looked terrible last week against the Giants. However, they’ve put up some solid offensive performances on occasion (vs. Bills, @ Jets, @ Packers). I think the 49ers have their struggles against the Seahawks defense. However, they may go off playing at home. The risk in taking the Seahawks is if the 49ers defense absolutely dominates this game. The 49ers gave up 3 points to the Bills and 0 points the Jets. They can be lights out.

The trends favor San Fran in this one: Seahawks are 2-5 ATS in San Fran in the last 7, the home …

In week 5, I came out even. I split my big plays with the Bears and Texans. I split my teasers with Bears/Texans and Vikings/Packers. At first glance, week 6 looks like a tough week. Almost every spread is the 3.5-point variety where I see merit in both sides of the coin. I’m looking forward to Brandon’s college picks. He’s gone 6-2 ATS in the last two weeks. Let’s get after it fellas. Be sure to vote in the poll below.

BALTIMORE RAVENS (-3.5) over Dallas Cowboys — Confidence: 8/10 — The Ravens are typically dominant at home. Buy a half-point if you can and go with the Ravens here. Only concern is that Dallas is coming off the bye week after getting rocked by the Bears and you may see a rebound game from them. However, Dallas is still overrated in my opinion. Ravens should be the play at home. Don’t let the Ravens underperformance last week mess with your head too much. The Ravens can play poorly on the road. They’re a completely different animal at home.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) over TENNESSEE TITANS — Confidence: 7/10 — The Titans are in shambles. They’ve gotten killed by the Texans and Vikings in the last two weeks, but both games were on the road. They now return home where they beat the Lions 44-41. I don’t think they have enough in them to beat the Steelers. Chris Johnson has got no heart — 2.9 YPC and 0 TD! Pathetic. The Titans should yank that contract from him. I’m going to play the Steelers moneyline so the points aren’t a factor. The Titans are desperate for a win, but I don’t see them beating the Steelers. Mendenhall is back …

Post-Game Thoughts: The forum trolls can bask in glory as the Jets got the cover. The kicker was a 100-yard kickoff return for them in the 3rd quarter that lifted the Jets into the money. I would rather take the Texans and say they should have covered instead of speculating on the Jets solely as a situational play when there’s the prospect of them getting hammered by the Texans.  Overall, a solid week for me thanks to the Bears (-5). I had the Texans in a teaser with the Bears just in case the scenario played itself out that the Texans win, but don’t cover. The teaser mitigates some of the damage there.

Pre-Game Thoughts: I’m reading the thread on the Texans vs. Jets game at Covers.com to see what people are saying. A lot of people over there are liking Jets (+9) on the theory that since they’ve played so bad over the last few weeks, that it’s destined that they’ll show up tonight and cover this spread, or even win outright.

Forget that the Jets performance over the last three weeks has been a complete joke and that they’re facing the best defense in the league — they claim that Mark Sanchez will have a career game (against the best defense in the league)  just because the media is busting his balls. You know who else is getting his balls busted? Michael Vick. But that doesn’t stop him from being a turnover machine and a complete liability every time the ball is in his hands.  The comments there are completely laughable. I’m still waiting to come across somebody stating that the group Jeremy Kerley, Chaz Shillens and Clyde Gates is the most underrated wide receiving corp in the …