NFL Picks

So my bets are placed. My big game of the week is the Bills over the Rams. I’m bought a point to take the spread from Bills -8 to Bills -7, which I put 9 units on in order to win 7 units. The Rams are the NFL’s worst team. When they’re scoring 9.7 PPG and allowing 38.7 PPG, I’m pretty comfortable taking the Bills, who have an outstanding defense, excellent running game, and solid passing game. The Rams have only been inside the redzone twice in three games. The Rams are even making desperation moves like going with Trent Green over Marc Bulger. The morale in St. Louis is at an all-time low. I’m extremely confident with the Bills this week.

I also put 7 units on the Eagles -3 over the Chicago Bears. The Eagles are great at stopping the run, so I’m not worried about Matt Forte, forget Orton passing on this secondary, and the Bears have a suspect pass defense, which McNabb should pass all over.  Oh, and McNabb has never lost in Chicago.

I then put 6 units on the Broncos -9.5. If the Rams are the worst team in the NFL, the Chiefs are a close second. With the Broncos explosive offense and the Chiefs allowing 26 PPG and only mustering 10.7 PPG, I’m pretty comfortable with this spread.

I then did a 5-unit, 3-team teaser taking the Bills -1, Broncos -2.5 and Chargers -2. It pays out 7 units and I’m pretty confident with all 3 teams.

Use your own judgment picking your games this Sunday and good luck. Here are my full NFL Week 4 Predictions.…

The Sunday and Monday night spreads got released late, so I didn’t get a chance to add those previews to the list, so I’ll cover them here.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -3 @ CHICAGO BEARS

As an Eagles fan, I naturally think the Eagles will pounds the Bears. The Bears have been great at stopping the run, but they’re struggling against the pass. The Bears are 28th against the pass, allowing over 250 YPG. With the hot start McNabb has gotten off to, I expect him to be throwing all over the field. I love the way the Eagles offense is playing and their defense has been even better. The Eagles have the best rush defense in the league, so they should shut down Matt Forte and I don’t expect Orton to do anything against this Eagles secondary. I’m putting 7 units on the Eagles would throw this into the “spreads to take” category, but keep in my, I am an Eagles fan.

Prediction — Eagles 24 – Bears 13

Pick Against the Spread: Eagles -3 — Confidence 4/5
Pick Straight Up: Eagles — Confidence 4/5

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS -5

The Ravens could very well pull off the upset this week. The Ravens have the best defense in the NFL and with Willie Parker out and Ben Roethlisberger extremely banged up, the Steelers offense will be in bad shape against this defense. The Steelers pass protection was exposed by the Eagles last week and the Ravens should easily be able to dominate their offense line again this week. The only question is whether the Ravens offense has enough to win this one. I would take the points here. I could see the Ravens either pulling off the upset or losing …

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Week 4 in the NFL looks much easier than last week and there are a few games that I like a lot. The harder part is trying to decide which ones to bet on and which ones to pass on. I’m going to say that it should be a great strategy to bet against the Rams, Chiefs, and Lions this year. The Lions have a bye week this week, but I think we should be able to take advantage of the Rams and Chiefs this week. Those are two terrible teams on both sides of the ball who are facing excellent offenses with pretty good defenses to boot. The Bills and Broncos games were the two games that immediately jumped off the page at me.

For the Bills game, I bought a point to take the spread from Bills -8 to Bills -7. Most sportsbook’s have the line at Bill -9.5, so I figured I should jump at the opportunity to move the line down to 7 before it goes up even higher. I put 10 units on them to win 7. I then put 8 units on the Broncos -9.5. I also did a 3-team teaser for 5 units that pays 7 units (Chargers -2, Bills -1, and Broncos -2.5). I’ll analyze why I made these picks in the preview to follow.

SPREADS TO TAKE:

BUFFALO BILLS -8 @ ST. LOUIS RAMS

So the Rams are ranked 32nd in points allowed and 31st in points scored, so they must be really bad, right? The Rams rank in the bottom of every single category on offense and defense. There is literally nothing …

Well, the Chargers pick worked out like a charm. I knew that they would pull through for the win and that lots of points would be scored, but I expected a bit more from the Jets and thought they could keep it a closer game. I just wanted to post my updated record after this week. Although the early games didn’t go as planned, I hit a home run by nailing both the Sunday night and Monday night games to get myself back into the game by winning a total of 9 units from those game. I’m now up a total of 6 units on the year and hopefully, we can double it up in week 4. There’s a few games that I like this week and I should have my picks posted soon.

This Week’s Record:

— Straight Up: 12-4
— Against the Spread: 8-8
— Betting Units: -8

Cumulative Record:

— Straight Up: 31-15 (.674)
— Against the Spread: 26-19-1 (.577)
— My “Spreads to Take” Record Against the Spread: 10-5 (.667)
— Betting Units: +8…

I’m feeling good about tonight, but I still don’t like the Chargers enough to give up 8. The Chargers should win this one, but I think it’ll be too tight to give up 8 points. I say it’s a back-and-forth game until the Jets run out of gas in the 4th and Rivers leads San Diego to a win late in the 4th. No, I’m not a psychic, this is merely a hunch.

Personally, I’m going with a 7-point teaser: Chargers -1 and Over 39.5. I’ll try to get 3 units back. Rivers and Favre should be throwing touchdowns tonight and the Chargers ain’t going 0-3 in their house on Monday Night. I could see the Chargers D giving up a few TDs and although the Jets defense may be tough, the Chargers offense is looking legit, so they should get themselves some points too.

Prediction — Chargers 28 – Jets 20…

NFL Week 3 Recap:

It was a crazy week in the NFL. I wasn’t crazy about this week, so I should have taken it easy this week, but I was up big form the first two weeks and I thought I could get up even more. I was big on Denver because I liked their offense against a depleted New Orleans defense. The Broncos did their job on offense, but their defense just couldn’t stop Drew Brees. Although the Broncos won, they couldn’t cover. That once against confirms my belief that the Broncos are the worst team to bet on them. Whenever I bet against them, they win. Whenever I bet on them, they lose. I then missed out on my Patriots/Giants teaser. I was shocked to see how terrible the Patriots were. I figured that if they could hold the Jets to 10 points, there is no way the Dolphins could score more than that on them, especially considering their 12 PPG average, but they shocked everyone this week. I also figured that if the Dolphins gave up 361 yards and 3 TDs through the air to the Cardinals last week, certainly Randy Moss would have a monster game. Wrong again. Well, those two games hurt me big, but I had the Cowboys bail me out a little in the late game.

Monday Night Football Preview:

NEW YORK JETS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -8

I’m not impressed with the Jets at all. They come into San Diego with a 1-1 record. They looked decent in week 1, but it was against the 1-15 Dolphins, so let’s not go crazy over that game. They then lost at home to the Patriots in week 2, 19-10. They had problems stopping the …

Like I said last week, this was going to be a tough week and there were no games that I thought were worth taking, but I wanted to play a little bit, and I was big on the Broncos O vs. a depleted Saints defense. Well, it was a rough week.

As I thought, that game was a shootout, but the Saints managed to do more damage than I thought. I thought Champ Bailey and Dre Bly would shut down the pass enough to give the Broncos a big win. The Broncos won, but they couldn’t cover, and the final score was 34-32.

My teaser didn’t work out either. The Bengals decided to show up and not lay down for the other team and who would have thought that Ronnie Brown would destroy the Patriots with 4 rushing TDs and a passing TD to boot to add insult to injury. The Panthers also let me down. If they would have won, a nice 7:1 parlay would have hit for me to help bail me out a little. I told you to watch out for those Jaguars this week.

I hit on the Eagles pick thanks to their phenomenal defense and most importantly, my Eagles picked up the big W in a hard-fought game.

I’m down 15 units today, but I was up 12 units from the first 2 weeks and another 2 units when I put some money on the MSU/ND game since I was in attendance and the Spartans gave me a nice 2 units to help out a bad day.

Tonight, the Dallas Cowboys are in Green Bay and I like the Cowboys. They are on the road and the Packers could possibly come away with the W, …