While Super Bowl 2010 Odds have the Colts as a 5.5 point favourite, which will be a tough margin, the over/under line of 56 looks to be a much more profitable number to bet on. When the Saints and the Colts hit the field for the NFL Championship game in Miami this Sunday, there is a good chance that it will be a high scoring affair.

The Indy offence is led by Peyton Manning who, with his ability to reading and react to the defence before the snap, put up a league best 4,500 passing yards while only being sacked 10 times in the regular season. Having already won a Super Bowl in 2006, the four time AP NFL Most Valuable player knows how to deal with the pressure and intensity of the big game and will looked upon as a leader on and off the field. He should have a better chance of connecting with All-Pro wide-receiver Reggie Wayne then he did during the Conference Championships.

Even though Peyton Manning put up great individual numbers last game, he only connected with Wayne and tight-end Dallas Clarke for seven receptions and 90 yards combined. Considering both were over 100 receptions and 1100 yards on the regular season, they should have much more productive games this weekend. This does not bode well for the Saints defence.

The one big question mark on the Colts defence is the health of Dwight Freeney’s ankle.  The All Pro defensive end is one of the best pass rushers in the league and, along with Robert Mathis, will be the key to Indy’s pass defence. Pro Bowler safety Antoine Bethea is expected to be in the line-up as well after seeing limited practice time last week with a sore back. The Indy defence is not overly strong already, ranked 18^th, so they hope both will be back because they need all the help they can get.

The Saints have been carried to their first Super Bowl in franchise history on the arm of Drew Brees. The Purdue product’s 109.6 passer rating was the second best since 2005 and lead the offence to a league best 34 passing touchdowns. The only knock on him is inexperience. Brees has never been out of the conference championship round in his nine year career, but with six touchdowns in his two playoff games this season, the experts at US sportsbook reviews know that his nerves should not be a problem.

Reggie Bush has been on a tear in the post season, making big plays on the ground and as a receiver out of the backfield. The Colts are giving up close to 100 yards receiving to running backs over their two playoff games, none of which had the skill of Bush, so there is the strong possibility of Reggie adding to his post-season totals of 149 combined yards and two touchdowns.

Those making NFL picks know the Saints defence is ranked 25^th in the league, boosted by teams having to throw to keep up with their offence, and will be challenged early and often by this Colts offence. Even though they gave up a large number of yards over the season, the Saints only have up 15 passing touchdowns while snagging 26 interceptions, good for sixth and third in the league. Manning had better be careful if he wants a second ring.

The NFC and AFC Championships are finally here.  Thanks to those who signed up for our Facebook page.  If you sign up for the page, you’ll be notified on your Facebook news feed when new articles are updated on THE PASS RUSH, which is simply amazing!

It’s a good way to keep in touch with us during the offseason since you’ll likely not hear from me again after the Super Bowl until August.  Actually, I may stop in in late February, early March to get the fantasy baseball talk heated up, which I play pretty competitively.  Those articles will, of course, be posted on our sister site, THE HIGH HEAT.

I hope you remember to come back next season and sign up for the Pick ‘Em league, which I’ll be doing again next season and will also be delivering an NFL custom shop t-shirt to the winner.  Deez Nuts just got his, which I’m sure he’ll be rocking for his Vikings.

The season, like any, has had its fair share of ups and downs.  For me there were slightly more ups than downs.  We had some hot streaks and there have been some cold ones, but for me, the hot have outnumbered the cold and that’s what we try to strive for each season.

We had a fantastic week this past week.  Our picks were 3-1 in the divisional round.  Although I played the games lightly since it’s playoff football, it still moved me up a few units, which is what we want going into the NFC and AFC Championship games.  You may also want to check out Vernon Croy’s Super Bowl Picks.  Let’s get to the my NFC and AFC Championship picks.

NEW YORK JETS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -8

I can’t help but not like the Colts here, but the Jets are a very, very dangerous team.  I learned my lesson when I thought the Bengals would beat them on their home turf.  No sir.  This team plays defense and knows how to run the football thanks to their all-star offensive line.  You say Mark Sanchez sucks balls?  Rex Ryan says we will play hard-nosed football and run the football down your throat.  The Jets would look good even if JaMarcus Russell was their QB.  This is one particular reason that I can’t pick the Jets. I simply don’t want to see them in the Super Bowl.  If they make it to the Super Bowl, I wouldn’t even be interested in watching it.

In any event, this game could be tight due to the Jets D, but like last week’s game against the Ravens, Peyton Manning will eventually blow it open. Are you are worried about Darrelle Revis shutting down Reggie Wayne? Well, Peyton has two formidable receivers in Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie, and the crafty Dallas Clark to boot.  Collie had 4 receptions for 52 yards and 1 TD last game.  Garcon had 5 receptions for 34 yards.  Dallas Clark had 7 receptions for 59 yards.  In other words, I don’t care if Revis is stuck to Wayne like glue the entire game, Manning will locate his receivers and will move the football against the Jets.

The Colts defense played extremely well last week.  They had a tough task of containing Ray Rice and they completely shut him down.  The Ravens are very similar to the Jets. If you can stop their running game, they’re not going to beat you. I think that Indianapolis D really shuts down the Jets.

Mark Sanchez isn’t ready for Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis playing at their AFC Championship level.  Obviously the Jets are going to hand the ball of time and time again, but I think you see Sanchez get pressured when he has to drop back.

I think it’s safe to say that the Colts easily win by 10.  I’m not expecting much scoring from the Jets. Maybe 10-13 points max.  You have to be concerned about the Jets tough defense. They shut down the high-powered Chargers offense on their turf, but I think you see Manning play just fine. Peyton Manning is a champion. This guy wasn’t born to win just 1 Super Bowl. I, of course, will be on his side when he’s playing at home coming off a convincing win against the Ravens even when plenty of opportunities were left on the field.

I also wanted to note that the over/under is 39.  If you think this is going to be a tight game, you can take the Colts -1 and tease it to over 32 or under 46 depending on how much offense you anticipate in this matchup.

Prediction: Colts 24 – Jets 10

Free Pick: Colts -8

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -3.5

Thank you Vikings for crushing the Cowboys last week and tossing Tony Romo around like a rag doll.  That made my week. Congratulations again to winner of our pick ‘em league, Deez Nutz, as he bleeds purple.

I cannot help but think of the game where the Vikings faced the Saints on Monday Night football last season on October 6, 2008.  If you need your memory refreshed, take a hard look at this box score.  The Vikings won 30-27.  Keep in mind that Adrian Peterson rushed for a mere 32 yards that game and a guy named Gus Frerotte was playing QB for the Vikings. Gus Frerotte beat the Saints at home you say? Yes, he did.  This was also the game where 14 of the Saints 27 points game via Reggie Bush punt returns, and despite taking a 27-20 lead, the Saints hopes were crushed at home.

The Vikings defense was nasty last week.  That is a championship defense.  Sure, the Saints D is pretty good too.  At least they are better than they were last season.

Another point I want to make. Remember when the Saints lost their first game? Who was it against? The Cowboys. I’m not trying to point out that if the Cowboys beat the Saints and the Vikings beat the Cowboys, then the Vikings must beat the Cowboys.  What is the common denominator here? Ask yourself what was the sole reason the Cowboys beat the Saints this season? It was the Cowboys pass rush. DeMarcus Ware essentially won that game himself. Well, the Vikings have a player named Jared Allen who happens to be a pretty good football player. If the Vikings can generate the type of pass rush that they did last week, they’re going to have a lot of success against the Saints.

I find it extremely hard to bet against the Saints when the Super Dome is going to be rocking. Is this the first ever NFC Championship to be played in New Orleans? I think so. That place is going to be off the hook and is just a huge home field advantage. I’m just putting my thought process out on paper. My gut is telling me the Saints will win, but my head is telling me the Vikings will pull this one out. I am also thinking that the Cardinals made me look stupid since I was trying to be creative and thought the Cardinals could hang in there with the Saints when the Cardinals were getting 14 points. I figured the Saints would win by 7-10, but I did not see that disaster coming. But hey, the Saints were looking soft in the final quarter of the season and the Cardinals just score 50+ points.  Sometimes you are short-sighted, but the Saint turned up the heat in the playoffs as they should have been expected to.

Sometimes you have to make bold calls. I’m calling a Saints victory by a field goal with those holding Vikings +3.5 cashing in the winning ticket.  This may make me look completely stupid in the end, but I say the proof is in the pudding. Because you want to know who is a champion like Payton Manning?  Brett Favre and Adrian Peterson.  And Jared Allen too. But maybe you should stick with the team with the home-field advantage and go with the Saints. I don’t know, this is a tough one to call. I just want to watch a great game.

Prediction: Saints 27 – Vikings 24

Free Pick: Vikings +3.5

Disclaimer: Your chances of winning either of these games is as good as a coin toss.

Good luck!

At first site, I thought the spreads were average, but now I’m starting to fall more in love with my picks. But you’re not going to make big money in the playoffs — the easy money was made betting against the Lions, Raiders, Rams, Bucs, Browns, and Chiefs in the first half of the season before the books caught on. That part of the season is over.  Now we have some fun money to play around with and that’s all we’re going to do. No big bets for me this week, but a little something to keep things fun.

You should also sign up for a FACEBOOK PAGE, which I just made, to keep in touch with us through the offseason.  Do it! I’m doing the pick ‘em league next year too with the winner getting an NFL custom shop t-shirt. Deez Nutz just won a Vikings t-shirt.  Pretty cool.

Onto last week’s summary.

Luckily, we hit the Ravens last week.  I told you Ray Rice would have a big game and that Randy Moss would get shut down, but I didn’t want to wager too much on the road against the undefeated Tom Brady at home in the playoffs.  But I went with my gut and took the Ravens to get a little back after the Bengals let me down.

My thesis on Bengals winning at home was wrong since Mark Sanchez didn’t suck like he usually does since all he had to do is hand the ball off to that fat ass from Iowa University who had a monster game and that Darrelle Revis guy shut down Chad Johnson.  Fortunately for Sanchez and his half-stache, he has the privilege of having the best offensive line in football.

Revis is the best CB in the NFL right now.  End of story.  The guy held Andre Johnson to 35 yards and that’s all you really need to know about that guy.  Despite the Jets having a QB with a QB rating in the 10 percentile of the league, the Jets are legitimate since they play defense and their offense can run the ball on anyone.  Can you imagine if the Jets make it to the Super Bowl? I dread the thought, but it’s entirely feasible the way they play D and run the ball.

Yes, my Eagles were clearly pathetic.  I didn’t want to touch them against Dallas and was simply trying to stay positive with the “you can beat a team three times in one year talk.” We all knew Dallas had the Eagles number. Hopefully, you didn’t take that game or common sense told you to take Dallas. I couldn’t say take Dallas — that would be blasphemy and punishable by being pelted with snowballs to face. It’s time for the Eagles to draft an offensive lineman in the first round of next year’s draft and for the love of God, get a free safety that is qualified to carry Brian Dawkin’s jock.  I had high expectations for Macho Harris and Quinten Demps, but he they’re not starters and neither are the one-year band-aides the Eagles got to try and replace Dawk.

The Packers and Cardinals game was entertaining as hell.  Too bad the Pack handed the Cards 14 points right off the bat since they should have won that one.

I digress.  Onto this week’s spreads…

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -7

Should be a shootout.  New Orleans was losing steam at the end of the season and their banged up secondary could be a problem for them this game.  I think the Saints defense has a hard time getting off the football field this game.  The Cardinals can run the football with Wells and obviously pass it when they need to and I think their defense is better than the Saints.  Right now, I’m leaning towards taking the points, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Saints completely lit up the Cardinals either.  I was expecting the over/under to be something like 59 since you can expect each team to score around 30 points give or take a TD for each team.  The over/under is 57, so I think what you do in this game is take the points and the over.  In other words, Cardinals +14 and over 50 is my play in this game.

Prediction: Saints 34 – Cardinals 31

Free Pick: 7 Point Teaser – Cardinals +14, Over 50

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -6.5

I like the Colts here.  They’re at home and have rest.  But the Ravens were so impressive last week, right?  Well, it’s not hard to beat the Patriots without Wes Welker.  You double team Randy Moss and stack the box to prevent the run. It’s an easy thing to do. Plus, plenty of turnovers just landed right in their hands.  The Colts defense plays fast and gets to the ball quickly.  I think they can contain Ray Rice. If you forgot, the Ravens played the Colts in Baltimore earlier this season and beat them 17-15.  Ray Rice had 71 rushing yards on 20 attempts, a 3.5 average — his lowest rushing average of the season.  However, he did burn them for 64 yards receiving.  The Ravens D will keep in close, but I think Manning has a field day against CBs Carr and Foxworth — sure they’re good, but they’re no McAllister and Rolle.  Ed Reed is also a little banged up.  Like I said, I like the Colts, but the 6.5 points is a lot to give up on D that keeps it close.  Don’t be shocked by a Colts win in the 3-4 point range, but I think they can win by 7-10.

Prediction: Colts 24 – Ravens 17

Free Pick: Colts -6.5; A teaser of Colts +0.5, Under 51 looks like a possible play.

DALLAS COWBOYS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS -2.5

A lot of people like Dallas in this one.  The Dallas D is playing insane right now and I think Tony Romo will have a lot of success against the Vikings secondary.  Cowboys have the 4th best rushing D in the league, which bodes rather well for them against AP.  The Vikings have been dominant at home. You thought they were headed off a cliff after the Bears loss, their 3rd loss in 4 games? They came out and crushed the Giants.  The Vikings are 8-0 at home.  That’s right – undefeated at home, which has me liking the Vikings this game despite everyone jumping on the Cowboys bandwagon.  Dallas is certainly capable of going into Minnesota and pulling off the upset, but I think their chances of doing that are 45% so I give a tip of the hat to the Vikings. Vikings win in a close one, but a disclaimer to all of you: my emotions and hatred for the Cowboys are clearly affecting my judgment in this one.

Prediction: Vikings 27 – Dallas 24

Free Pick: Vikings -2.5

NEW YORK JETS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -7

The Jets D was outstanding last week and proved why that have the #1 defense in the NFL.  You also have to be a bit concerned about how the Charger’s 20th ranked run D will fair against the Jets solid running attack.  With the Jets D and running game, I think they have a great chance to cover the 7 points here.  You have to count on Darrelle Revis to contain Vincent Jackson.  The Chargers have not done so well when they’ve had to cover 7 or more points this season.  This is why 10/11 experts at Covers.com are taking the Jets.  I find it hard to bet against a team at home going into this game with 11 straight wins, but I think the Jets are dangerous.  The Jets D will force the Chargers to punt more than they would like to and the Jets 4th ranked rushing attack will pick up first downs, eat up clock, and win the time of possession battle.  I think you’re best served taking the points.  I’m expecting the Jets D to limit the Chargers points and with a great running team against a team that struggles against the run, I think that’s a huge advantage in favor of the Jets.

Prediction: Chargers 24 – Jets 20

Free Pick: Jets +7

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Good luck!

Playoff football is finally here.  Last week, our picks went 3-1 with our sole loss by a half point. Some of you may have even been lucky enough to have that one push if you got the line at -4 instead of -4.5.

We’ve also been cleaning up in hockey, as we added 3 units of profit to our yearly total yesterday and we are up a whopping 12 units.  We hit a rough spot early in the season with some unfortunate shootouts, but a little perseverance and hot streak has us up big.

This week, I’m eying up the Wild Card lines to see if there are any good plays to make. Unfortunately, 3 of the games are rematches from week 17.  When has that ever happend?

NEW YORK JETS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS -2.5

The Jets blanked the Bengals 37-0 last week to earn a shot in the playoffs.  That game meant nothing for the Bengals.  Carson Palmer played just a half before handing the game over to J.T. O’Sullivan.  I think this is a chance to take advantage of last week’s game.  Without last week, I’m sure the Bengals would be 4-6.5 point favorites.  The Jets D will keep this game tight, but I will have to bet against the rookie in his NFL playoff debut. The Bengals are not going to let the Jets run for over 250 yards again. Sanchez threw for a mere 63 yards last week. When the playoff pressure is on, I think you’ll see him throw a pick or two to the Bengals. I think the Bengals are the best play to make this week.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ DALLAS COWBOYS -4

All of you know that I’m an Eagles fan.  Sure, the Cowboys beat the Eagles twice this season, including a 24-0 shutout last week. But how many times have you seen a team defeat another team 3 times in one season? That’s what I hope works to the Eagles advantage as I hopefully watch the Eagles advance to the next round.

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -3

The line opened at Ravens +4 and the public jumped at the chance to take the points with Wes Welker out. I would rarely suggest betting on a road playoff team, but I can see the Ravens winning this one outright. The loss of Wes Welker is just huge. He is the glue that holds the offense together. He is Tom Brady’s safety blanket. He must lead the league is passing targets. Now the Patriots are going to double team Randy Moss the entire game and basically shut him down. For the Patriots to win this game, they will have to depend on Laurence Maroney and Kevin Faulk to have big games and that’s asking a lot against a tough Ravens front 7. I think the Ravens can win this one because Ray Rice is capable of doing a lot of damage. It’s tough to call this one. I think you’re best served passing on it. I think the Ravens can win outright, but I don’t want to bet against the Patriots at home, but the Wes Welker injury has me liking the Ravens in this one.

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS -1

Although I did’t make it an official play last week, I did pick the Packers in our pick ‘em league last week and the Pack won 33-7. Can they repeat that type of performance? I don’t see why not. Aaron Rodgers is playing out of his mind.  He completed over 80% of his passes last week, albeit against most of the Cardinals reserves, but there is no doubt that he has the hot hand going into this game. The Packers have won their last 7 of 8 and their sole loss came by 1 point on the road to the Steelers. Like the Jets game, you can’t put too much emphasis on the win since it came against the Cardinals B team. This is another game that is too close to call. I like the Packers, but find it hard to bet against a star like Larry Fitzgerald in the playoffs.

SUMMARY

There’s really only one game that I like this week and that is the Bengals -2.5 over the Jets. But expect that one to be relatively close with a tough Jets D and cold weather. You have to think that Sanchez throws a pick or two that game though. Although I like the Ravens and Packers, I cannot give them my stamp of approval playing on the road. For the Eagles, I’m hoping that the fact that they’ve been beaten twice this season by the Cowboys  is to their advantage since it’s awfully hard to beat a team 3 times in 1 season.

Good luck everyone.

It was a winning week this past week.  We took down some plays on the Packers, Chargers, Eagles, Texans, and Vikings, and had losses with the Saints and Cardinals.  No big deal, I’ll take a 5-2 week anytime.  Now we’re getting into the thick of the NFL season when things get really exciting.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -3 @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

As soon as I saw this spread, I loved it.  I said, hold on, did the Colts already clinch home field advantage? And it turns out that they did.  I quick news search on Google stated that Peyton Manning and all healthy starts will play this Sunday.  I would love taking the Colts if home field was on the line, but with no motivation to really win this one and not knowing how long Peyton will play: a quarter, a half, who knows, I think you stay away from this one.  On the other hand, I’m sure the Colts, like the Saints, want to go undefeated.  Can you imagine 18-0 Colts vs. 18-0 Saints in the SuperBowl?

Prediction: Colts 24 – Jaguars 20

Free Pick: Colts -3 (Confidence: 2/5)

DALLAS COWBOYS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -7

I am loving this as an Eagles fan.  Not only did the Eagles win over the Giants give the Eagles sole possession of the NFC East with 2-straight home games against the 49ers and Broncos, but the Cowboys lost to the Chargers after losing to the Giants and now have to go on the road to face the Saints.  Saints are still playing for home field so I think you see them win this one.  The Cowboys December woes continue.  Get the “Is Wade Phillips getting fired?” talks going.  I’m loving this!

Prediction: Saints 27 – Cowboys 20

Free Pick: Saints -7 (Confidence: 2/5)

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -2

Browns beat the Steelers and Joshua Cribbs had a breakout performance as a running back! A healthy dose of Joshua Cribbs this game will give the Browns the win. Browns D is playing inspired and the Chiefs continue to be horrendous.

Prediction: Browns 24 – Chiefs 17

Free Pick: Browns +2 (Confidence: 3/5)

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -7 @ BUFFALO BILLS

I like the Patriots here, but reluctant to take them since there’s some team turmoil.  You didn’t see a run up in the score last week with the weather conditions.  You’ll obviously be getting another cold one in Buffalo.  I’m weary of betting against home underdogs, but I’m thinking the Pats are due for a big win.

Prediction: Patriots 24 – Bills 16

Free Pick: Patriots -7 (Confidence: 2/5)

ARIZONA CARDINALS -12 @ DETROIT LIONS

I swear it’s in Kurt Warner’s contract that he has to play like crap once every 5 games and throw a minimum an 3 picks and a fumble.  With the Lions awful defense, how can you not like the Cardinals even at -12? The Cardinals have been solid on the road, despite last week’s loss, but I’ll chalk that up to the Monday Night home team factor that we usually stick to plus the clause in Warner’s contract. The Lions should get blown out just like they did last week.

Prediction: Cardinals 38 – Lions 17

Free Pick: Cardinals -12 (Confidence: 3/5)

CHICAGO BEARS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS -11

I was thinking of taking the points here.  The Bears are struggling big time, but they can contain the run, which was critical to Ravens win last week.  In a cold game with two teams known for defense and running, I think you see a tight, low scoring affair.

Prediction: Ravens 16 – Bears 10

Free Pick: Parlay Bears +11, Under 40.5 (Confidence: 2/5)

SAN FRANSISCO 49ERS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -7.5

I’m an Eagles fan.  Eagles play great football in December.  West coast teams struggle on the east coast at 1:00.  Eagles are in control of their own destiny now.  What else do you want to know?  LET’S GO EAGLES! E-A-G-L-E-S EAGLES!!!

Prediction: Eagles 24 – 49ers 13

Free Pick: Eagles -7.5 (Confidence: 2.5/5)

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -6.5

Bengals are losing their mojo and the Chargers are HOT right now.  Chargers want to lock up that first-round bye.  I think you see them win by 10.

Prediction: Chargers 24 – Bengals 14

Free Pick: Chargers -6.5 (Confidence: 2.5/5)

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ DENVER BRONCOS -14

Don’t like this one with the high spread.  Sure, Brandon Marshall is the 3rd best receiver in the NFL behind Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson.  However, the Raiders match up with the Broncos well.  This one will be too close for comfort with the spread, so I’m passing here.  Don’t want to take the Raiders for the sake of taking 14 points since the Raiders could easily get blown out.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -7

I’m going to pass on this one too since both teams blow.  Seahawks are at home, so that’s where I’m leaning, but don’t like this game.

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS -2

Steelers cannot lose their 6th straight came, can they? Not at home, right? You have to feel the Steelers are due for a win, but they have just been anemic.  The Packers are hot right now and that who I’ll go with.

Prediction: Packers 24 – Steelers 20

Free Pick: Packers +2 (Confidence: 2/5)

MINNESOTA VIKINGS -9 @ CAROLINA PANTHERS

Panthers don’t win unless they can run the ball.  Vikings are arguable the best team against the run.  The Vikings need this one to clinch the division and get that first-round bye. Panthers Pro-Bowl OT is out, so look for backup QB Moore to be pressured a lot.  This one is looking very one sided to me.

Prediction: Vikings 27 – Panthers 13

Free Pick: Vikings -9 (Confidence: 3.5/5)

NEW YORK GIANTS -3 @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Redskins are playing much better right now.  Home Team + Monday Night = Usual Winning Ticket.  I’ll be rooting to the Redskins so the Giants are off the Eagles tails and the Eagles trip to the playoffs becomes easier. However, I think you see the Giants win this one. I want to stick to the home-team Monday night play, which usually works well, but my personal feelings are interfering with good judgment.  I think this a game you just have to pass on.

TOP 5 SPREADS THIS WEEK:

It’s a so-so card this week.  Here is what I like.  As you can see, no plays received a 4/5 rating.

1.) Vikings -9 over PANTHERS

2.) Cardinals -12 over LIONS

3.) CHARGERS -6.5 over Bengals (* Disclaimer: A lot of Vegas money is going on the Bengals according to Brandon.)

4.) EAGLES -7.5 over 49ers

5.) Browns +2 over CHIEFS

So after a ridiculous Thanksgiving weekend run, the NFL went back to being totally unpredictable and downright silly again, led by the Raiders beating the Steelers in Pittsburgh.

My Eagles won and gave us a big hit, but my other top 3 picks failed me as the Pats lost the Dolphins, the Vikings lost to the Cardinals, and the Cowboys lost to the Giants.

There’s no way I thought the Patriots would lose after their disappointing Monday Night loss to the Saints.  The Cardinals lose at home to the Panthers and 49ers at home and beat the Vikings? No one can make sense of whats going on with the Cardinals on a week-to-week basis.  I played the Cowboys since I thought Eli Manning is DONE due to his foot injury. Well, it turns out that he still has some gas left in the tank.

A quick glance at the spreads and I hate this week’s card.  But let’s see if we can find anything good.  I’m going to make this one short and sweet since I am running short on time.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS -10 @ CLEVELAND BROWNS

The Steelers have lost 4 straight including losses to the Chiefs and the Raiders. They also lost Hines Ward and Polamalu is still out. One of our readers suggested teasing Steelers -3 and taking the over 26.  That may be the way to go, but I like the under here. Don’t count on much scoring from the Browns. I had a pick of Browns +21, over 32.5 when the Browns faced the Bengals and the final score in that one was 16-7. The Browns are playing better D lately and this one will possibly be in the snow.  I like the Steelers -3 with the under 40.  I got this after the line movement, so my play is Steelers -2, Under 40.5.  It’s going to be COLD AND WINDY tonight. Into the negatives with the wind chill and 20-30 mph wind with 40 mph gusts.  Don’t expect much passing in this one.  I’ll go with the team that can pound the rock and that is the Steelers.  A healthy dose of Rashard Mendenhall. Hard to go wrong with the under in cold weather with a chance of snow.

Prediction: Steelers 10 – Browns 6

Free Pick: Teaser: Steelers -2, Under 40.5 (Confidence: 2.5/5)

SEATTLE SEAHAKWS @ HOUSTON TEXANS -6

Texans are due for a win. They’re at home and the Seahawks D sucks. Time for Andre Johnson to have a big game. Texans don’t lose 5 straight. Should be close with the spread since the Texans can give up a lot of points too.  I still think they cover by 1-4 points.

Prediction: Texans 27 – Seahawks 20

Free Pick: Texans -6 (Confidence: 2.5/5)

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS -6.5

Vikings have been ridiculously strong at home, while the Bengals failed to cover against the Lions and lost to the Raiders the week before. Their momentum is waining. I like the Vikings here.

Prediction: Vikings 27 – Bengals 16

Free Pick: Vikings -6.5 (Confidence: 3/5)

DENVER BRONCOS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -7

For some reason, I just feel that the Broncos match up well with the Colts. I think the Colts struggle to dominate the Broncos, but I think its safe to bank on them to win this game. You can tease this one to a Colts in pick ‘em and can take the over 37 or under 54. Look for Brandon Marshall and the Broncos running game to play well, but for Peyton to ultimately outduel them.

Prediction: Colts 24 – Broncos 17

Free Pick: Any teaser combination should work here: Colts -0 or Broncos +14, Over 37 or Under 54

NEW YORK JETS -3 @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

We learned last week not to bet against home dogs, except when the home team has their 2 stars out like the Falcons and you can take the Eagles.  Pats, Vikings, Saints, Cowboys all road favorites — all lost. Do you bet against the home dog this week? Tough call. Bucs were flat on the road against the Panthers, but have had some success at home (beating the Packers). Sanchez is out for the Jets, Clemens is in. Who knows what that will mean. I’m skipping this one.

Free Pick: Scratch

BUFFALO BILLS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

The Chiefs were having some success at home (beating the Steelers), but were just blown out by Chargers and then the Broncos. The Bills are incredibly weak though. This is another game that I will just pass over entirely and not look back on.

Free Pick: Scratch

GREEN BAY PACKERS -3 @ CHICAGO BEARS

We learned last week not to bet against home dogs. To reiterate: Pats, Vikings, Saints, Cowboys all road favorites — all lost. I’m loving the Packers right now and the Bears are in a funk. They couldn’t even cover at home against the Rams. They put up 17 points on them. That’s weak. I’m going with the hot team despite the home-dog trend that we saw last week.

Prediction: Packers 24 – Bears 16

Free Pick: Packers -3 (Confidence: 3.5/5)

DETROIT LIONS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS -13.5

I don’t like high spreads. Lions covered the 13.5 they got last week on the road against the Bengals and I think they have a good chance of covering this one.  They’re still the Lions and their run defense blows, so great news if you have Ray Rice on your fantasy team. I think you see the Ravens win this one by 10, but they may win by the 14.  I’m anticipating a Ravens win by 31-17 or 27-17, it’s going to be on the bubble with the spread, so I’m staying away.

Prediction: Ravens 27 or 31 – Lions 17

Free Pick: Too Close To Call

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS -3

I had the Dolphins over the Panthers 2 weeks ago and they lost, I had the Patriots over the Dolphins and they won. Tough team to figure out.  They play strong at home, weak on the road. I also had the Texans over the Jags and the Jags won, but when I picked the Jags over the 49ers, the 49ers won. In other words, these two teams drive me crazy. The only way to play them is to take the home team.

Prediction: Jaguars 23 – Dolphins 20

Free Pick: Jaguars -3 (Confidence: 2/5)

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -10 @ ATLANTA FALCONS

No Matt Ryan and Michael Turner for the Falcons so look for the Saints to beet up the Falcons just like the Eagles did last week.

Prediction: Saints 31 – Falcons 10

Free Pick: Saints -10 (Confidence: 3.5/5)

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -13.5

Mr. Brady, how can you throw a pick to Vontae Davis in the end zone that could have gotten you the win and the cover? Weak sauce my friend, weak sauce. You’re certainly not looking like a 4-time Super Bowl winner, so hopefully your last two losses give you the fire in your belling to blow out the Panthers. I think you do see the Pats beat up out the Panthers.

Update: Game will be played in the snow and freezing weather, so the 14 points looks steep.  However, the Pats put up something like 59 points against the Titans whey they played in the snow.  I took this one off my list with the high spread and terrible conditions.

Prediction: Patriots 24 – Panthers 10

Free Pick: Patriots -13.5 (Confidence: 2/5)

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ TENNEESEE TITANS -13

The 1-11 Rams are 6-6 ATS this year. The books are loving them! Despite their 11.6 PPG, they still manage to cover! Unbelievable.  What’s even more impressive? They’re 6-2 ATS in their last 8. I pummeled the Rams for a lot of cash earlier this season, but when I lost a game or two against them, I stayed away from them for the rest of the season. When is the last time the Titans beat a team by more than 13 point? Well, it’s happened twice when they rocked the Bills and rocked the Jaguars, but it doesn’t happen often.  Everyone is thinking Chris Johnson will run for 450 yards and 4 TDs and that may very well happen, but beware of the Rams, they may be a spoiler for those banking on Titans -13. Matt Forte didn’t have a ridiculous game against the Rams. I think you can expect 120 yards for CJ and a TD or two. I think Rams can cover here.

Prediction: Titans 24 – Rams 13

Free Pick: Not Playing This, Just Giving You a Buyer Beware if you take the Titans

WASHINGTON REDSKINS -1 @ OAKLAND RAIDERS

I want to say take the Redskins, but east coast teams struggle out there. Eagles and Bengals have fallen victim to the Raiders in Oakland. That gives me enough reason to stay away here, but for the sake of calling this game, I’m going with the Redskins.

Prediction: Redskins 24 – Raiders 17

Free Pick: Redskins -1 (Confidence: 3/5)

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ DALLAS COWBOYS -3

Tough call here. I want to take the Chargers, but the Cowboys are a completely different team at home. My personal hatred the Cowboys and the fact that they lost to the Giants last week is affecting my judgment here, but I’ll take the field goal. The Chargers are coming on strong and they are focused on the playoffs as the Cowboys’ infamous DECEMBER WOES continue.

Prediction: Chargers 30 – Cowboys 27

Free Pick: Chargers +3 (Confidence: 2.5/5)

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ NEW YORK GIANTS -1

I’m hoping the Chargers can top the Cowboys so the Eagles can reclaim sole possession of the NFC East going into week 15. The Eagles beat the Giants earlier this season and beat  the Giants twice last year in the Meadowlands. That makes the Eagles streak against the Giants 3-0. I think they can make it 4.

Free Pick: I’m an Eagles fan, this one is up to you.

ARIZONA CARDINALS -3.5 @ SAN FRANSISCO 49ERS

I said HOME TEAM + MONDAY NIGHT last week and those who took the Packers earned back a little coin.  We learned about not betting against home dogs last week, but just because you see a home dog does not give you a reason to take them (See the Broncos last week over the Chiefs and of course, the Eagles over the Falcons). The Cardinals are playing great right now and the 49ers just aren’t up to par with them yet even though they beat them in week 1, but that was a long time ago.

Prediction: Cardinals 27 – 49ers 17

Free Pick: Cardinals -3 (Buy the half-point if you’re able to) (Confidence: 3/5)

TOP 5 SPREADS:

I don’t like this week’s card very much, but at least we don’t have to bet against many home dogs.

I didn’t put much thought into this order.  You’re going to get some hits and misses. I think you’ll get 3 winners out of that bunch, but I would obviously love 4 or 5.

1.) Saints -10 over FALCONS

1.) Packers -3 over BEARS

2.) VIKINGS -6.5 over Bengals

3.) TEXANS -6 over Seahawks

4.) Cardinals -3 over 49ERS

TEASERS:

1.) Saints -3 and Vikings +0.5

2.) Saints -3 and Colts

3.) Saints -3 and Ravens -6.5

4.) Chargers +10 and Packers +4

We’ve been on a hell of run lately.  From the last Sunday night through the Friday after Thanksgiving, we were on an 11-0 run. We took some losses on Saturday due to some bad beats (Georgie Tech QB Josh Nesbitt getting injured and then missing the over on the Florida/FSU game by 3 points after FSU settles for 3 points on the 1 yard line instead of going for it on 4th down), but we had a hell of a Sunday.  I placed 1 BIG bet on Sunday during the day and that was my Chargers/Vikings teaser, which was won very easily. We then won the Sunday night game and then the Monday night game as well, extending the Sunday/Monday night steak to 6-0.  We then took the Saints winnings and put them on UNC Tuesday night, which also hit for us with ease.

So since last Sunday night, let’s tally up those W’s and L’s. Are you ready for this? 15-3 (83.33%).  In other words, don’t mess with the master’s flow when he has a one bad week! Our winning percentage in the last week is higher than the employment rate in this country (there’s 17.8% un- and under-employment, for your information).

ONE LAST TIME. MY LAST 18 PICKS ARE 15-3. CHA-CHING!

Reminder: Don’t forget to set your picks in our Pick ‘Em league and vote in our poll.

NEW YORK JETS -3 @ BUFFALO BILLS

This is the Thursday Night game, which will be played in Toronto. I don’t like this game at all. Mark Sanchez sucks and the Bills suck too, but managed to beat the Dolphins last week, which was a huge surprise to me.  This one doesn’t even deserve my attention, so I’m going to skip over it. If you want a Thursday Night game to watch or bet on, I recommend the Pac 10 Championship between Oregon and Oregon State instead of this garbage, and I like the teaser of Oregon -3, Over 55, which you can read about here.

DENVER BRONCOS -5 @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

The Broncos finally ended their 4-game skid by getting a Thanksgiving win over the Giants, which surprised me, but at least I warned you that taking the Giants may result in a loss.  The Chiefs were demolished by the Chargers last week, but the last time they played in KC, they upset the Steelers. Crazy stuff occasionally goes down in Arrow Head Stadium. For my money, I like taking the Broncos here, but due to the Steelers upset, I’m approaching this game very cautiously and will not be taking it personally.

Prediction: Broncos 24 – Chiefs 16

Free Pick: Broncos -5 (Confidence: 2.5/5)

HOUSTON TEXANS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

This is a pick ‘em here and I’m feeling that the Texans are just due for a win.  They were upset on Monday Night at home by the Titans and then ended up losing to the Colts after gaining a 14-0 lead. 91% of the money is on the Texans and 8/8 of the experts at Covers.com like the Texans here. With CB Mathis still doubtful for the Jags, I think Andre Johnson hurts them. The Jags pass offense blows, so that’s the difference in this one.  Can’t beat the spread either at a pick ‘em.

Prediction: Texans 27 – Jaguars 20

Free Pick: Texans (Confidence: 3.5/5)

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -5.5 @ MIAMI DOLPHINS

Monday Night was awesome for me. Not only was my Saints pick perhaps the easiest cover of the season thus far, but I got to see Tom Brady with that famous sour look on his face for the entire second half. The same face we saw against the Colts and the same face during the Super Bowl against the Giants. I loved every minute of seeing him lose. That sets up the perfect opportunity for him to beat the pants off the Dolphins this Sunday. 98% of the public likes the Pats and 4/5 experts at Covers.com do. The Pats beat the Dolphins about 3 weeks ago by 10 points, 27-17. In this one, I think they win by 10 or even more. Look for them to turn on the jets and be all business this game. That Pats are not going to lose their 5th game of the season. The moneyline at -240 looks like a lock to me, but the Dolphins have put up a fight at home to teams like the Colts and Saints.

Prediction: Patriots 31 – Dolphins 17

Free Pick: Patriots -5.5 (Confidence: 4/5)

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS -6.5

I cannot bet on the Panthers here. They lost at home to the Dolphins and followed that up with a pathetic loss to the Jets. It seems like all the players on that team have given up on the season. The Bucs are actually playing for pride unlike the Panthers.  I’m going against the grain and saying the Bucs cover here, but am I willing to bet on the Bucs for the sake of taking points? No, I am not.

Prediction: Panthers 24 – Buccaneers 20

Free Pick: Buccaneers +6.5 (Confidence: 2/5)

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ CHICAGO BEARS -9

About 5 weeks ago, I would have loved the Bears here, but they’ve been pretty pathetic in the last couple weeks (0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS). Orlando Pace may be out Sunday. Lance Briggs, Alex Brown, and Charles Tillman are all questionable. Chicago is averaging 12 PPG in their last 3 games, so of course I’m not going to give up 9 points, even if it is against the Rams. This does appear to be the perfect game for Chicago to rebound though, especially if they can get Matt Forte going against the Rams awful run defense, but I cannot take the game based on the Bears recent performance. The Rams are averaging just 8.8 PGG on the road, so the Bears should actually get their first cover in 5 weeks. I’m doing one of my famous teasers on this on, Bears and the Under.

Prediction: Bears 20 – Rams 10

Free Pick: 7-point Teaser: Bears -2, Under 48 (Confidence: 3/5)

TENNESSEE TITANS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -7

How about them Titans. After starting the season 0-6, they’ve won 5 straight games, and actually have a chance to make the playoffs if their luck can continue. 56% of the public’s money and 5/6 experts at Covers.com like the Titans and the points here. It sounds intriguing, but I don’t see how you can bet against Peyton Manning at home. I guess people are feeling that the Colts are due for that first loss of the season after they flirted with that first L with the Ravens and then Texans. You could tease this to the Colts in a pick ‘em game, but what do you do with the over/under set at 47. Do I like over 40 or under 54? The game total should be right in that range so I think you are likely to win either way you tease it. Tough call here.

Prediction: Colts 27 – Titans 20

Free Pick: 7-point teaser: Colts, Over 40 or Under 54 up to you

DETROIT LIONS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS -13

I don’t like the Bengals as 13-point favorites. The Bengals don’t usually beat teams by bunch (usually by just 3-7 points, but this is the Lions here). They didn’t cover against the Browns (16-7 as 14-point favorites) and they didn’t cover against the Raiders — they actually lost to the Raiders! The Lions have just been getting creamed though, so I don’t like the +13 either. The over/under is at a low 42, so I think you can tease this one down to 35 to take the over and the Bengals at -6, but I thought the Bengals and Browns game from last week could hit the over 32.5 and that one ended in a 16-7 score. How did the Bengals manage a mere 16 points against the Browns? I don’t know, but the Lions should definitely give up more points than the Browns did last week.

Prediction: Bengals 27 – Lions 16

Free Pick: 7-point teaser: Bengals -6, Over 35 (Confidence: 3/5)

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -9.5 @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS

I love the Saints here. Don’t let the Redskins 24 points last week on the Eagles fool you too much. Granted, the Redskins played well, but the Eagles gave the Redskins 7 points at the start of the game by attempting an onside kick to begin the game, which gave the Redskins a short field (about 30 yards) to set up a TD. The Redskins have been playing with a bit more pride lately, and WR Devin Thomas is really impressing me, but the Saints should kill them. My only worry is if they suffer a “Monday Night hangover” after their big win, so let that be your “buyer beware” on this game. If they’re still celebrating Monday’s big win and take the Redskins lightly, they’ll be in trouble, but the way Sean Payton coaches, I’m sure he’ll have his team focused on this game.

Prediction: Saints 31 – Redskins 16

Free Pick: Saints -9.5 (Confidence: 3/5)

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -5.5 @ ATLANTA FALCONS

I’m an Eagles fan, so the Matt Ryan injury came at the perfect time for them. That’s the whole reason 5/5 experts at Covers.com like the Eagles here. With Matt Ryan doubtful and Michael Turner questionable, the Falcons are in a lot of trouble this game. I wish the Eagles would win more convincingly the last two weeks, but a win is a win. I think the Eagles have an easy time covering against a defense that gives up a lot of yards and an offense without their two biggest stars. Unfortunately, DeSean Jackson will sit this one out, but I have enough faith in Jeremy Maclin and Jason Avant for McNabb to get it done. Look for LeSean McCoy to have a larger role in the offense now that DeSean is out and McNabb still has his favorite target TE Brent Celek to work with.

Prediction: Eagles 27 – Falcons 17

Free Pick: Eagles -5.5 (Confidence: 3.5/5)

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -13 @ CLEVELAND BROWNS

I was loving the Chargers and Vikings last week as they rolled over their opponents and helped my big teaser hit. The Browns average 11.1 PPG and give up 25.4 PPG. The Chargers score 28.4 PPG and give up 19.9 PPG. Easy math here. The Chargers just dismantled the Chiefs last week 43-14. I like the Chargers here despite the high spread.

Prediction: Chargers 31 – Browns 10

Free Pick: Chargers -13 (Confidence: 3.5/5)

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ PITTBURGH STEELERS -14.5

Pretty ridiculous spread here. I guess the books are counting on the Steelers defense on not allowing the Raiders to score at all.  I’m not touching this one at all.  The Raiders have played the role of the spoiler a few times.

SAN FRANSISCO 49ERS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Another game that I don’t like at all and will completely ignore.

DALLAS COWBOYS -2.5 @ NEW YORK GIANTS

Eli Manning is playing really hurt and we saw it affect him last week. Manningham and Bradshaw are both questionable, which spells more trouble for the G-Men. This looks like a good spot to take the Cowboys, whose defense has been incredible latey, giving up just 12.7 PPG in their last 3 games.

Prediction: Cowboys 24 – Giants 17

Free Pick: Cowboys -2.5 (Confidence: 4/5)

MINNESOTA VIKINGS -3 @ ARIZONA CARDINALS

Livinitup told us that the spread was originally -1 but everyone and their mother took the Vikigns and the books had to take the spread down and readjust it to the tune of a 4.5 point line movement.  I loved the Vikings at -1 and I still love them at -5.5.  Their defense is ridiculous and their offense is even better. Count on a Saints vs. Vikings NFC Championship, which is going to be awesome!  I don’t care if Warner or Leinart is playing QB, the Vikings should cruise past the Cardinals.

Prediction: Vikings 31 – Cardinals 23

Free Pick: Vikings -3 (Confidence: 3.5/5)

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS -3

Three straight wins for the Pack now, so they’re firmly back in the playoff hunt when things after looking pretty bleak. I’m worried about some Packer injuries though. Al Harris and Aaron Kampman are missing from that defense. The Pack have two offensive linemen questionable, which has been their weakness all season long. The Ravens also have a lot of injuries too. Suggs is likely out again this week and they’ll also likely miss LB Burgess. I love the way Ray Rice is playing though. This is going to be a tough one and I see this one going either way. By no means is this a good game to bet on, but I’m going to stick with the Pack at home. Monday night + home team. Worked last week, I think it works again here. I’ll probably post a revised pick on Monday Night to make the Monday Night play official, but I’m probably not touching this game.

Prediction: Packers 27 – Ravens 24

Free Pick: Packers -3 (Confidence: 1/5)

TOP 7 SPREADS RANKED BY STRENGTH:

I like a ton of individual games, so we don’t have to go nuts with the teasers, although that worked like a charm last week.  I’ll still throw out some teaser ideas at the end for you.

* Have to be weary of all the road teams, but that’s how I see it going down.

1a.) Patriots -5.5 over DOLPHINS

1b.) Eagles -5.5 over FALCONS

1c.) Cowboys -2.5 over GIANTS

1d.) Vikings -3 over CARDINALS

5.) Chargers -13 over BROWNS

6.) Texans over JAGUARS

7.) Saints -9.5 over REDSKINS

FUN PARLAYS:

1.) 3-Team Parlay (6-to-1): Patriots -5.5, Eagles -5.5, Cowboys -2.5

2.) 4-Team Parlay (12-to-1): Patriots -5.5, Eagles -5.5, Cowsboys -2.5, Vikings -3

3.) 5-Team Parlay (25-to-1): Patriots -5.5, Eagles -5.5, Cowboys -2.5, Chargers -13, Vikings -3

3.) 6-Team Parlay (40-to-1): Patriots -5.5, Eagles -5.5, Cowboys -2.5, Chargers -13, Vikings -3, Texans

TEASERS TO PLAY:

1.) Favorite 2-Team Teaser: Saints -2.5, Chargers -6

2.) Quality 4-Team Teaser (2-to-1): Saints -2.5, Bengals -6, Chargers -6, Patriots +1.5

3.) Ultimate 8-Team Teaser (7-to-1): Patriots +1.5, Eagles +2.5, Cowboys +5.5, Texans +7, Chargers -6, Saints -2.5, Colts, Bengals -6

Disclaimer: Just because we’ve been damn good recently does not make any of these picks guaranteed. Do your own due diligence or Mr. T will throw a Mohawk grenade at you.