US sportsbook odds (US sportsbook review) didn’t give New Orleans much of a chance in their Super Bowl showdown with Indianapolis on Sunday, and neither did many in the sports betting industry who give NFL picks, and it didn’t look good for a while. But one play changed the look of the game, and the Saints are now celebrating their first Super Bowl win.

Peyton Manning was 31-of-45 for 333 yards and a touchdown, but it was his pick to Tracy Porter that was run back for a touchdown in the fourth quarter which sealed the Colts’ fate.  The Colts even ran the ball more than usual, and Joseph Addai had 77 yards and a score on 19 carries. Indy gained 432 yards to the Saints’ 332 yards, but the Colts made a couple of critical mistakes, and while the Porter pick was huge, the second half started the comeback.

Sean Payton made the gutsiest call in Super Bowl history, as his onside kick threw everyone in Sun Life Stadium off guard. The Saints went on to outscore the Colts 22-7 in the second half of the game, and they stuck with the gameplan they created going into the game. The Colts refused to let the Saints beat them with their crew of deep threats, but like Manning did against the New York Jets in the AFC championship game, Super Bowl MVP Drew Brees did the same against the Colts. Brees took his check-down throws and moved the ball, and he ended up going 32-of-39 for 288 yards and a pair of touchdowns. The 32 completions by Brees tied a Super Bowl record, and Marques Colston and Devery Henderson caught seven passes apiece for the Saints.

NFL lines had the Saints as a 4.5-point underdog in this contest, and they showed a lot of poise and courage in this game. They started off very slow, but they never panicked and stuck to their plan. The onside kick was a huge blow to the Colts, and then the Saints systematically broke them down. New Orleans has also lived and died with turnovers this year, and their eighth forced turnover in three playoff games clinched the title. Also, it can’t be understated what Brees did during this postseason run. Brees went up against Arizona’s Kurt Warner, Minnesota’s Brett Favre and Manning, all three of whom should end up in the Hall of Fame, and Brees outplayed them all, failing to throw a pick throughout the playoffs.

Those who were looking for a shootout were disappointed as the 48 combined points were under the posted total of 56.5. Still, that had to be the only thing that Super Bowl betting players had to be disappointed with in this brilliant game.

The Super Bowl is just a few days upon us.  This is the Super Bowl that we’ve dreamed of since the fourth week into the season.  Many of us after just a few weeks into the season easily predicted that the Indianapolis Colts and the New Orleans Saints would face each other in the Super Bowl and we could easily be treated to what could be the best Super Bowl EVER.

The last two Super Bowls have been outstanding and the Patriots vs. Panthers Super Bowl was phenomenal as well, but this one has the makings of what could be the BEST SUPER BROWL EVER.

I hope you’ve stuck with us the last two weeks since our playoff record in the last 2 weeks has been 5-1. Not only did I say that the Colts would win by at least 10 points last week and predict a win by 14, off by a mere point, but I boldly called a Saints win by EXACTLY a field goal.  I said the Saints would win by 3 giving the Vikings +3.5 a winning ticket.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS VS. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -5

I’ve also won the last two Super Bowl by taking the dogs and the points.  However, it also helped that I hated both opposing teams: the Patriots and Steelers.  I’m an Eagles fan and I did consider the Giants as the lesser of two evils that game.  I took Cardinals +7 last year and Giants +12.5 the year before that.  Will I take the dog again this year?  Let’s see.

Everyone is expecting both teams to score into the 30’s this game as the over/under is set at 56.5.  I think the Colts will win this one, but can the Saints keep it close enough to cover?  That’s a tough one.  I think there’s a good chance the Colts win by 3 or 4 points here.  You know the Saints will be fighting the whole game to keep up with Peyton Manning and the Colts.  The Colts have the better D, but the Saints faced a tough Vikings defense two weeks ago and that didn’t slow them down much.

The Saints were forced to punt more than usual though. They punted 7 times.  Other than a game against the Panthers in week 17, the Saints punter has never kicked the ball more than 5 times in a single game.  Drew Brees still got the job done.  3 TDs from Brees.  The Saints also caught a ton of breaks that game though.  The Vikings threw 2 picks and had 6 fumbles, 3 that were lost!  That made me want to look at the turnover differential.  I was expecting the Colts to dominate this category, but to the contrary: the Saints have a +11 turnover differential compared to the Colts +2.

The thing that makes this game tough to call is because I expect the game to play out like this. First, I think the team to receive the ball first is a huge factor in this game. To make a few bold predictions like saying the Saints will win by exactly 3 points in the NFC Championship, I will throw out a few more predictions purely for your enjoyment: I will say that the team who wins the coin toss will be the team to win the Super Bowl and that the team that receives the ball first will be the team to score first (although not necessarily on their first drive).

I am going to predict that Colts are the first team with the ball and that they are the first team to draw blood via a TD by Pierre Garcon.  For the rest of the game, I think you see the Colts maintain a 7-10 point lead for the better part of 3 quarters.  By the 4th quarter, I think you can expect a score in the range of 27-20.  I think you see the Saints D come to life and hold the Colts to a FG and bump the lead to 30-20. Drew Brees will then drive his team down the field for a TD only to be outdueled by Peyton Manning, who has an easy time scoring.  37-27.  Brees gets one last chance to keep his team in the game, Brees scores to make the game 37-34, but unfortunately, there is just is not enough time for the Saints to pull out the W.

In other words, I expect this game to appear like the Colts are a lock to win as they spend nearly the entire game with a 7-10 lead.  However, late game heroics by Drew Brees and the Saints will pull them within 3 points only to have the clock expire on them.

Take that and run with it.  We’ll see what happens.  It’s going to be a great game.  Enjoy and  Good luck!

Prediction: Colts 37 – Saints 34

Free Pick: Colts Moneyline, Saints +5

Fun Props: Heads (-110), Colts Win Toss (-110), Peyton Manning Over 2.5 TDs (-110), Peyton Manning Super Bowl MVP (-200), Pierre Garcon Scores 1st TD (+800).

With the big game only a few days away, the main focus in the world of football is on the Super Bowl line as it is a last chance for some NFL predictions and picks until August. As always, during the weeks leading up to the Super Bowl many NFL teams undergo some heavy changes in the coaching department as well revealing some indicators on players that potentially will be let go.

Offseason Recap

Head Coaches

There have been some big headlines on the Head Coaching front with Pete Carroll leaving USC after one of the most dominant tenures in college history to become the President and Head Coach of the Seahawks. Carroll has been given total creative power and brought with him to Seattle his offensive coordinator Jeremy Bates, who was allegedly considering the same postion with the Bears before Carroll was given the job. Carroll also brings with him former great linebacker Ken Norton Jr. to be his linebackers coach. It will be interesting to see if Carroll starts stockpiling some of his former USC players.

Other notable head coaching changes:

Mike Shanahan is now the Redskins Head Coach, and allegedly will not get interfered with by meddling owner Dan Snyder.

Chan Gailey becomes the Buffalo Bills new Head Coach in a questionable decision by the Bills front office. Gailey has been out of the game for a year, and has not been highly regarded in many.

Assistant Coaches

The offseason started a little too early for the liking of the New York Giants this year who finished a disappointing 8-8 after a 5-0 start. A big reason for this was the collapse of the defense. 2009 Defensive Coordinator Bill Sheridan paid for it with his job as the Giants have brought in former Interim-Head Coach of the Bills, Perry Fewell to man the top defensive coaching spot. Fewell coached under Giants Head Coach Tom Coughlin as a defensive backs coach in Jacksonville in the late 90’s.

Other notable assistant coaches on the move:

Mike Nolan moves from Denver to Miami to be their D-Coordinator.

Romeo Crennel signs to be the D-Coordinator of the Chiefs and Charlie Weis has signed on as O-Coordinator as President Scott Pioli has reinstituted his old championship coordinating team from his Patriots days on the Chiefs.

Mike Martz signs with the Bears to be Jay Cutler’s offensive coordinator

Fired Redskins Head Coach Jim Zorn has become the QB’s coach in Baltimore, a job that he used to do well. Zorn was made Head Coach when he was not even being considered as an offensive coordinator around the league. This seems to be a good fit for Zorn, who gets to work with a burgeoning star in Joe Flacco.

Old faces heading to new places

Panthers DE Julius Peppers has been considered one of the best pass-rushers in the game for the majority of his career. The Panthers have been using the Franchise tag on him for many years and look like they will not this year. Peppers is the best player currently on the market, and most certainly the best defensive end.

Potential new home: Green Bay, New England, Kansas City

Other big names potentially on the move:

Donovan McNabb QB, Eagles

Anquan Boldin WR, Cardinals

Joey Porter 3-4 OLB, Dolphins

LaDanian Tomlinson RB, Chargers

Chester Taylor RB, Vikings

Michael Vick QB, Eagles

Reggie Bush RB, Saints

Super Bowl News

The big question approaching Super Bowl Sunday is the health of Colts DE Dwight Freeney. Freeney has been one of the most dominant DE’s in the league this year, like in many other years prior. With two minutes left in the Colts win over the Jets, Freeney tore an ankle ligament trying to avoid hitting Jets QB Mark Sanchez. The Colts pass-rush has done a great job taking the pressure off their extremely young corners. Without a pass-rush, Drew Brees will be tough to stop. Freeney is a game-time decision, but the Colts are practicing as if he will not be able to play. I expect Freeney to get on the field, but a 3^rd degree ankle sprain is next to impossible to comeback from so quickly. If you’ve ever seen one up close and personal, you would understand why.

Betting Tips: The spread without Freeney should be less than the 5.5 points the Colts are currently giving. This game becomes more of a toss-up now and could make for some gaudy offensive numbers for Drew Brees. Brees should be considered as a better value bet for MVP without Freeney playing up to his ability.

While Super Bowl 2010 Odds have the Colts as a 5.5 point favourite, which will be a tough margin, the over/under line of 56 looks to be a much more profitable number to bet on. When the Saints and the Colts hit the field for the NFL Championship game in Miami this Sunday, there is a good chance that it will be a high scoring affair.

The Indy offence is led by Peyton Manning who, with his ability to reading and react to the defence before the snap, put up a league best 4,500 passing yards while only being sacked 10 times in the regular season. Having already won a Super Bowl in 2006, the four time AP NFL Most Valuable player knows how to deal with the pressure and intensity of the big game and will looked upon as a leader on and off the field. He should have a better chance of connecting with All-Pro wide-receiver Reggie Wayne then he did during the Conference Championships.

Even though Peyton Manning put up great individual numbers last game, he only connected with Wayne and tight-end Dallas Clarke for seven receptions and 90 yards combined. Considering both were over 100 receptions and 1100 yards on the regular season, they should have much more productive games this weekend. This does not bode well for the Saints defence.

The one big question mark on the Colts defence is the health of Dwight Freeney’s ankle.  The All Pro defensive end is one of the best pass rushers in the league and, along with Robert Mathis, will be the key to Indy’s pass defence. Pro Bowler safety Antoine Bethea is expected to be in the line-up as well after seeing limited practice time last week with a sore back. The Indy defence is not overly strong already, ranked 18^th, so they hope both will be back because they need all the help they can get.

The Saints have been carried to their first Super Bowl in franchise history on the arm of Drew Brees. The Purdue product’s 109.6 passer rating was the second best since 2005 and lead the offence to a league best 34 passing touchdowns. The only knock on him is inexperience. Brees has never been out of the conference championship round in his nine year career, but with six touchdowns in his two playoff games this season, the experts at US sportsbook reviews know that his nerves should not be a problem.

Reggie Bush has been on a tear in the post season, making big plays on the ground and as a receiver out of the backfield. The Colts are giving up close to 100 yards receiving to running backs over their two playoff games, none of which had the skill of Bush, so there is the strong possibility of Reggie adding to his post-season totals of 149 combined yards and two touchdowns.

Those making NFL picks know the Saints defence is ranked 25^th in the league, boosted by teams having to throw to keep up with their offence, and will be challenged early and often by this Colts offence. Even though they gave up a large number of yards over the season, the Saints only have up 15 passing touchdowns while snagging 26 interceptions, good for sixth and third in the league. Manning had better be careful if he wants a second ring.

The NFC and AFC Championships are finally here.  Thanks to those who signed up for our Facebook page.  If you sign up for the page, you’ll be notified on your Facebook news feed when new articles are updated on THE PASS RUSH, which is simply amazing!

It’s a good way to keep in touch with us during the offseason since you’ll likely not hear from me again after the Super Bowl until August.  Actually, I may stop in in late February, early March to get the fantasy baseball talk heated up, which I play pretty competitively.  Those articles will, of course, be posted on our sister site, THE HIGH HEAT.

I hope you remember to come back next season and sign up for the Pick ‘Em league, which I’ll be doing again next season and will also be delivering an NFL custom shop t-shirt to the winner.  Deez Nuts just got his, which I’m sure he’ll be rocking for his Vikings.

The season, like any, has had its fair share of ups and downs.  For me there were slightly more ups than downs.  We had some hot streaks and there have been some cold ones, but for me, the hot have outnumbered the cold and that’s what we try to strive for each season.

We had a fantastic week this past week.  Our picks were 3-1 in the divisional round.  Although I played the games lightly since it’s playoff football, it still moved me up a few units, which is what we want going into the NFC and AFC Championship games.  You may also want to check out Vernon Croy’s Super Bowl Picks.  Let’s get to the my NFC and AFC Championship picks.

NEW YORK JETS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -8

I can’t help but not like the Colts here, but the Jets are a very, very dangerous team.  I learned my lesson when I thought the Bengals would beat them on their home turf.  No sir.  This team plays defense and knows how to run the football thanks to their all-star offensive line.  You say Mark Sanchez sucks balls?  Rex Ryan says we will play hard-nosed football and run the football down your throat.  The Jets would look good even if JaMarcus Russell was their QB.  This is one particular reason that I can’t pick the Jets. I simply don’t want to see them in the Super Bowl.  If they make it to the Super Bowl, I wouldn’t even be interested in watching it.

In any event, this game could be tight due to the Jets D, but like last week’s game against the Ravens, Peyton Manning will eventually blow it open. Are you are worried about Darrelle Revis shutting down Reggie Wayne? Well, Peyton has two formidable receivers in Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie, and the crafty Dallas Clark to boot.  Collie had 4 receptions for 52 yards and 1 TD last game.  Garcon had 5 receptions for 34 yards.  Dallas Clark had 7 receptions for 59 yards.  In other words, I don’t care if Revis is stuck to Wayne like glue the entire game, Manning will locate his receivers and will move the football against the Jets.

The Colts defense played extremely well last week.  They had a tough task of containing Ray Rice and they completely shut him down.  The Ravens are very similar to the Jets. If you can stop their running game, they’re not going to beat you. I think that Indianapolis D really shuts down the Jets.

Mark Sanchez isn’t ready for Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis playing at their AFC Championship level.  Obviously the Jets are going to hand the ball of time and time again, but I think you see Sanchez get pressured when he has to drop back.

I think it’s safe to say that the Colts easily win by 10.  I’m not expecting much scoring from the Jets. Maybe 10-13 points max.  You have to be concerned about the Jets tough defense. They shut down the high-powered Chargers offense on their turf, but I think you see Manning play just fine. Peyton Manning is a champion. This guy wasn’t born to win just 1 Super Bowl. I, of course, will be on his side when he’s playing at home coming off a convincing win against the Ravens even when plenty of opportunities were left on the field.

I also wanted to note that the over/under is 39.  If you think this is going to be a tight game, you can take the Colts -1 and tease it to over 32 or under 46 depending on how much offense you anticipate in this matchup.

Prediction: Colts 24 – Jets 10

Free Pick: Colts -8

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -3.5

Thank you Vikings for crushing the Cowboys last week and tossing Tony Romo around like a rag doll.  That made my week. Congratulations again to winner of our pick ‘em league, Deez Nutz, as he bleeds purple.

I cannot help but think of the game where the Vikings faced the Saints on Monday Night football last season on October 6, 2008.  If you need your memory refreshed, take a hard look at this box score.  The Vikings won 30-27.  Keep in mind that Adrian Peterson rushed for a mere 32 yards that game and a guy named Gus Frerotte was playing QB for the Vikings. Gus Frerotte beat the Saints at home you say? Yes, he did.  This was also the game where 14 of the Saints 27 points game via Reggie Bush punt returns, and despite taking a 27-20 lead, the Saints hopes were crushed at home.

The Vikings defense was nasty last week.  That is a championship defense.  Sure, the Saints D is pretty good too.  At least they are better than they were last season.

Another point I want to make. Remember when the Saints lost their first game? Who was it against? The Cowboys. I’m not trying to point out that if the Cowboys beat the Saints and the Vikings beat the Cowboys, then the Vikings must beat the Cowboys.  What is the common denominator here? Ask yourself what was the sole reason the Cowboys beat the Saints this season? It was the Cowboys pass rush. DeMarcus Ware essentially won that game himself. Well, the Vikings have a player named Jared Allen who happens to be a pretty good football player. If the Vikings can generate the type of pass rush that they did last week, they’re going to have a lot of success against the Saints.

I find it extremely hard to bet against the Saints when the Super Dome is going to be rocking. Is this the first ever NFC Championship to be played in New Orleans? I think so. That place is going to be off the hook and is just a huge home field advantage. I’m just putting my thought process out on paper. My gut is telling me the Saints will win, but my head is telling me the Vikings will pull this one out. I am also thinking that the Cardinals made me look stupid since I was trying to be creative and thought the Cardinals could hang in there with the Saints when the Cardinals were getting 14 points. I figured the Saints would win by 7-10, but I did not see that disaster coming. But hey, the Saints were looking soft in the final quarter of the season and the Cardinals just score 50+ points.  Sometimes you are short-sighted, but the Saint turned up the heat in the playoffs as they should have been expected to.

Sometimes you have to make bold calls. I’m calling a Saints victory by a field goal with those holding Vikings +3.5 cashing in the winning ticket.  This may make me look completely stupid in the end, but I say the proof is in the pudding. Because you want to know who is a champion like Payton Manning?  Brett Favre and Adrian Peterson.  And Jared Allen too. But maybe you should stick with the team with the home-field advantage and go with the Saints. I don’t know, this is a tough one to call. I just want to watch a great game.

Prediction: Saints 27 – Vikings 24

Free Pick: Vikings +3.5

Disclaimer: Your chances of winning either of these games is as good as a coin toss.

Good luck!

At first site, I thought the spreads were average, but now I’m starting to fall more in love with my picks. But you’re not going to make big money in the playoffs — the easy money was made betting against the Lions, Raiders, Rams, Bucs, Browns, and Chiefs in the first half of the season before the books caught on. That part of the season is over.  Now we have some fun money to play around with and that’s all we’re going to do. No big bets for me this week, but a little something to keep things fun.

You should also sign up for a FACEBOOK PAGE, which I just made, to keep in touch with us through the offseason.  Do it! I’m doing the pick ‘em league next year too with the winner getting an NFL custom shop t-shirt. Deez Nutz just won a Vikings t-shirt.  Pretty cool.

Onto last week’s summary.

Luckily, we hit the Ravens last week.  I told you Ray Rice would have a big game and that Randy Moss would get shut down, but I didn’t want to wager too much on the road against the undefeated Tom Brady at home in the playoffs.  But I went with my gut and took the Ravens to get a little back after the Bengals let me down.

My thesis on Bengals winning at home was wrong since Mark Sanchez didn’t suck like he usually does since all he had to do is hand the ball off to that fat ass from Iowa University who had a monster game and that Darrelle Revis guy shut down Chad Johnson.  Fortunately for Sanchez and his half-stache, he has the privilege of having the best offensive line in football.

Revis is the best CB in the NFL right now.  End of story.  The guy held Andre Johnson to 35 yards and that’s all you really need to know about that guy.  Despite the Jets having a QB with a QB rating in the 10 percentile of the league, the Jets are legitimate since they play defense and their offense can run the ball on anyone.  Can you imagine if the Jets make it to the Super Bowl? I dread the thought, but it’s entirely feasible the way they play D and run the ball.

Yes, my Eagles were clearly pathetic.  I didn’t want to touch them against Dallas and was simply trying to stay positive with the “you can beat a team three times in one year talk.” We all knew Dallas had the Eagles number. Hopefully, you didn’t take that game or common sense told you to take Dallas. I couldn’t say take Dallas — that would be blasphemy and punishable by being pelted with snowballs to face. It’s time for the Eagles to draft an offensive lineman in the first round of next year’s draft and for the love of God, get a free safety that is qualified to carry Brian Dawkin’s jock.  I had high expectations for Macho Harris and Quinten Demps, but he they’re not starters and neither are the one-year band-aides the Eagles got to try and replace Dawk.

The Packers and Cardinals game was entertaining as hell.  Too bad the Pack handed the Cards 14 points right off the bat since they should have won that one.

I digress.  Onto this week’s spreads…

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -7

Should be a shootout.  New Orleans was losing steam at the end of the season and their banged up secondary could be a problem for them this game.  I think the Saints defense has a hard time getting off the football field this game.  The Cardinals can run the football with Wells and obviously pass it when they need to and I think their defense is better than the Saints.  Right now, I’m leaning towards taking the points, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Saints completely lit up the Cardinals either.  I was expecting the over/under to be something like 59 since you can expect each team to score around 30 points give or take a TD for each team.  The over/under is 57, so I think what you do in this game is take the points and the over.  In other words, Cardinals +14 and over 50 is my play in this game.

Prediction: Saints 34 – Cardinals 31

Free Pick: 7 Point Teaser – Cardinals +14, Over 50

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -6.5

I like the Colts here.  They’re at home and have rest.  But the Ravens were so impressive last week, right?  Well, it’s not hard to beat the Patriots without Wes Welker.  You double team Randy Moss and stack the box to prevent the run. It’s an easy thing to do. Plus, plenty of turnovers just landed right in their hands.  The Colts defense plays fast and gets to the ball quickly.  I think they can contain Ray Rice. If you forgot, the Ravens played the Colts in Baltimore earlier this season and beat them 17-15.  Ray Rice had 71 rushing yards on 20 attempts, a 3.5 average — his lowest rushing average of the season.  However, he did burn them for 64 yards receiving.  The Ravens D will keep in close, but I think Manning has a field day against CBs Carr and Foxworth — sure they’re good, but they’re no McAllister and Rolle.  Ed Reed is also a little banged up.  Like I said, I like the Colts, but the 6.5 points is a lot to give up on D that keeps it close.  Don’t be shocked by a Colts win in the 3-4 point range, but I think they can win by 7-10.

Prediction: Colts 24 – Ravens 17

Free Pick: Colts -6.5; A teaser of Colts +0.5, Under 51 looks like a possible play.

DALLAS COWBOYS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS -2.5

A lot of people like Dallas in this one.  The Dallas D is playing insane right now and I think Tony Romo will have a lot of success against the Vikings secondary.  Cowboys have the 4th best rushing D in the league, which bodes rather well for them against AP.  The Vikings have been dominant at home. You thought they were headed off a cliff after the Bears loss, their 3rd loss in 4 games? They came out and crushed the Giants.  The Vikings are 8-0 at home.  That’s right – undefeated at home, which has me liking the Vikings this game despite everyone jumping on the Cowboys bandwagon.  Dallas is certainly capable of going into Minnesota and pulling off the upset, but I think their chances of doing that are 45% so I give a tip of the hat to the Vikings. Vikings win in a close one, but a disclaimer to all of you: my emotions and hatred for the Cowboys are clearly affecting my judgment in this one.

Prediction: Vikings 27 – Dallas 24

Free Pick: Vikings -2.5

NEW YORK JETS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -7

The Jets D was outstanding last week and proved why that have the #1 defense in the NFL.  You also have to be a bit concerned about how the Charger’s 20th ranked run D will fair against the Jets solid running attack.  With the Jets D and running game, I think they have a great chance to cover the 7 points here.  You have to count on Darrelle Revis to contain Vincent Jackson.  The Chargers have not done so well when they’ve had to cover 7 or more points this season.  This is why 10/11 experts at Covers.com are taking the Jets.  I find it hard to bet against a team at home going into this game with 11 straight wins, but I think the Jets are dangerous.  The Jets D will force the Chargers to punt more than they would like to and the Jets 4th ranked rushing attack will pick up first downs, eat up clock, and win the time of possession battle.  I think you’re best served taking the points.  I’m expecting the Jets D to limit the Chargers points and with a great running team against a team that struggles against the run, I think that’s a huge advantage in favor of the Jets.

Prediction: Chargers 24 – Jets 20

Free Pick: Jets +7

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Good luck!

Playoff football is finally here.  Last week, our picks went 3-1 with our sole loss by a half point. Some of you may have even been lucky enough to have that one push if you got the line at -4 instead of -4.5.

We’ve also been cleaning up in hockey, as we added 3 units of profit to our yearly total yesterday and we are up a whopping 12 units.  We hit a rough spot early in the season with some unfortunate shootouts, but a little perseverance and hot streak has us up big.

This week, I’m eying up the Wild Card lines to see if there are any good plays to make. Unfortunately, 3 of the games are rematches from week 17.  When has that ever happend?

NEW YORK JETS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS -2.5

The Jets blanked the Bengals 37-0 last week to earn a shot in the playoffs.  That game meant nothing for the Bengals.  Carson Palmer played just a half before handing the game over to J.T. O’Sullivan.  I think this is a chance to take advantage of last week’s game.  Without last week, I’m sure the Bengals would be 4-6.5 point favorites.  The Jets D will keep this game tight, but I will have to bet against the rookie in his NFL playoff debut. The Bengals are not going to let the Jets run for over 250 yards again. Sanchez threw for a mere 63 yards last week. When the playoff pressure is on, I think you’ll see him throw a pick or two to the Bengals. I think the Bengals are the best play to make this week.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ DALLAS COWBOYS -4

All of you know that I’m an Eagles fan.  Sure, the Cowboys beat the Eagles twice this season, including a 24-0 shutout last week. But how many times have you seen a team defeat another team 3 times in one season? That’s what I hope works to the Eagles advantage as I hopefully watch the Eagles advance to the next round.

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -3

The line opened at Ravens +4 and the public jumped at the chance to take the points with Wes Welker out. I would rarely suggest betting on a road playoff team, but I can see the Ravens winning this one outright. The loss of Wes Welker is just huge. He is the glue that holds the offense together. He is Tom Brady’s safety blanket. He must lead the league is passing targets. Now the Patriots are going to double team Randy Moss the entire game and basically shut him down. For the Patriots to win this game, they will have to depend on Laurence Maroney and Kevin Faulk to have big games and that’s asking a lot against a tough Ravens front 7. I think the Ravens can win this one because Ray Rice is capable of doing a lot of damage. It’s tough to call this one. I think you’re best served passing on it. I think the Ravens can win outright, but I don’t want to bet against the Patriots at home, but the Wes Welker injury has me liking the Ravens in this one.

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS -1

Although I did’t make it an official play last week, I did pick the Packers in our pick ‘em league last week and the Pack won 33-7. Can they repeat that type of performance? I don’t see why not. Aaron Rodgers is playing out of his mind.  He completed over 80% of his passes last week, albeit against most of the Cardinals reserves, but there is no doubt that he has the hot hand going into this game. The Packers have won their last 7 of 8 and their sole loss came by 1 point on the road to the Steelers. Like the Jets game, you can’t put too much emphasis on the win since it came against the Cardinals B team. This is another game that is too close to call. I like the Packers, but find it hard to bet against a star like Larry Fitzgerald in the playoffs.

SUMMARY

There’s really only one game that I like this week and that is the Bengals -2.5 over the Jets. But expect that one to be relatively close with a tough Jets D and cold weather. You have to think that Sanchez throws a pick or two that game though. Although I like the Ravens and Packers, I cannot give them my stamp of approval playing on the road. For the Eagles, I’m hoping that the fact that they’ve been beaten twice this season by the Cowboys  is to their advantage since it’s awfully hard to beat a team 3 times in 1 season.

Good luck everyone.