Football Picks Against the Spread
Sorry this post comes a little in the day, but you still have plenty of time to make all of the bets I am posting.
Minnesota at Michigan (-19.5): Maybe it is just me, but I really think this Michigan team has a ton of talent, but clearly they have not put it together. They have to be one of the only teams in history to have started 4-0, and yet dropped in the standings each of the last two weeks after narrow wins. Part of having a good football program is learning to win even when you do not play very well. Michigan has done exactly that after narrow wins against Akron and UConn. Michigan comes off a bye week with plenty of time to prepare and refocus for Minnesota. If this team can put things together, they can easily dominate and blowout a team like Minnesota. Therefore, lay the 19.5 and take Michigan for 1 unit.
LSU at Mississippi State (+9.5). Tough and meaningless spot for LSU. MissSt is another team that has failed to put it all together. They are well coached, have above average talent, and should be motivated to beat LSU at home. LSU comes off a season ending loss at Georgia, which was a heartbreaker as well. LSU also is playing their second straight road game and come in as an almost 10 point favorite. MissSt comes off a blowout win over Troy and hopefully have that offense firing on all cylinders for today’s big home SEC game. I look for MissSt to play well and hopefully pull the upset. Take the points with Mississippi State for 1 unit.
Ohio State at NORTHWESTERN (+7). The real question is how good is Ohio State? While …
Solid week last week hitting my top play in the Seahawks minus anything over the Jags. I gave up a little by taking a hit on the Vikings, who I thought would stomp the Browns, but the Browns pulled out every stop in the book (fake punts, fake field goals, etc.) in order to get the win. I then hit back-to-back winners on Sunday and Monday night to cap it off thanks to the Bears and Broncos. I am headed to New Orleans this weekend for a bachelor party so the picks get cut short this week.
ST. LOUIS RAMS (+3.5) over San Francisco 49ers — Rams play the 49ers tough, beating them in St. Louis last year and tying them in San Fran. Have to go with the home dog on the short week.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) over Minnesota Vikings — This one will be in England so I would just stay away. I have no confidence in either team, but would lean Steelers who are more deserving of a win.
Baltimore Ravens (-3) over BUFFALO BILLS — The Ravens have had two nice games following their loss to the Broncos. Although the Bills are a team on the rise, the Ravens have shown that their defense still has plenty of gas left in its tank.
Indianapolis Colts (-9.5) over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS — I love pounding the Jaguars and I think this is another opportunity to take it to the NFL’s worst team.
Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5) over CLEVELAND BROWNS — We have our fourth straight home dog, which indicates another wild week in the NFL, but I’m not convinced in the Browns just yet. They pulled out all the stops last week and they’ll run out of their bag …
A tough loss last week with Alabama. Games can so easily go from a runaway easy win to a loss in a heartbeat. Alabama was going in for the score to go up 21 with just over three minutes left, they fumble on the two yard line, and A&M drives 90+ yards for the TD and cover. Not the worse beat of all time, but tough to be that close and walk away a loser with your top bet.
The overall college football card is filled with some huge favorites including Louisville -42, Alabama -39, UCLA -43, Miami-FL -59, Florida State -40, Ohio State -50, Virginia -45, and Washington -49. I do not see any value in those games. You potentially could have let down spots with Alabama, UCLA, and Ohio State off solid wins, but their opponents are so weak it would still be a stretch to lay money against any of those teams.
University of Louisiana-Lafayette (-6) vs. Akron. Incredibly tough spot for Akron off the loss to Michigan, in which, they should have won easily. Despite having many opportunities to win they had the ball within the 10 yard line and failed to score as time expired on their final play. Akron played the game of their life last Saturday and will be called to match that effort again as they take on a very solid UL-Laf squad. UL-Laf put forth strong efforts in their first two affairs suffering road losses to Arkansas and Kansas State. Last week they finally played a team more their caliber and won 70-7. One key spot play is to play against a team coming off a heart-breaking loss, even better when you have a team like Akron that will struggle to …
This week was a success in the NFL for me. I hit on my top game in the Broncos (-4.5) over the Giants, and I split my other pair in winning Cowboys (+3), but losing on Saints (-4). The write-up held true: I knew the Bucs would keep it close being at home in a division game, but I had to take a shot on Saints in this spot based on their respective week 1 play. As long as I hit the big one, I’m happy, and that’s what happened.
The Bengals (-6.5) then capped off a solid week on Monday Night. I think I’m going to continue pounding the Steelers and may ride the Seahakws minus whatever at home from here on out. A lot of tough games this week with road dogs looking to deliver a slew of upsets. Miami +1 vs. Falcons, Panthers +1 vs. Giants, Ravens +1 vs. Texans, Bengals +2.5 vs. Packers. A few of those home favorites will cover. Watch out.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-3) over Kansas City Chiefs
The flawed Eagles D that I was talking about in week 1 reared its ugly head. The Eagles could not stop the Chargers on third down to save their life. The Chargers punted maybe once in that game if my memory serves me correct. I liked how their D looked in Week 1, but they just didn’t show up this week. Being at home back-to-back on a short week should help the Eagles. Their offense has also looked outstanding in both weeks. They could have one of the league’s top offenses if they keep this up. If they got just one or two more stops on 3rd down, they would have had that game. Chiefs are …
It’s so good to have the NFL back. What a week in Week 1. Nearly every single game was close and came down to the wire. It was a great week for the dogs. I tried to pick a spot with calling an upset with the Panthers over the Seahawks. They almost did it if it wasn’t for DeAngelo Williams fumbling the game away.
The close week in all games really shows the parity between teams in the NFL. Early in the season, the dogs usually have the edge when every team is 0-0 and each team thinks they’re going to make the playoffs. Huge improvements among the Bills, Dolphins, Browns, Titans, Rams, Chiefs, Chargers, Cardinals, Lions, Eagles, and many other teams that were written off last year and in past years. There is one certainty among teams in that last half of the power rankings last year, the Jaguars are still the worst team in the NFL! How quickly coaching changes and drafting well can turn around teams immediately.
Last week, nearly all the advice I dished out was sound. I did extremely well picking games straight up, but those (-4.5) spreads cost you when your team pulls off a win by 3-4 points. Not a big deal as it’s only Week 1 and I like to take the first 4 weeks to evaluate things. I continue to believe that the books have the edge weeks 1-8 and that turns around in weeks 9-17 which has always been my bread and butter. The playoff teams step it up a notch while teams whose playoff hopes are defeated give up on the season, which is where I always try to capitalize.
I really like the primetime games this week with …
Nice to be back for another year of College Football. Over the years my betting strategy has really changed. I use to be a straight numbers guy, but over the past two years I have primarily become a situational player, in that I look for certain spots where either the casino has laid a bad number or more often the public has over bet a certain team.
Heading into Week 3 there is only one major college game on tap, Alabama (-7.5) at Texas A&M, but I do think there are a couple other plays that are worth taking a shot at.
ALABAMA (-7.5) vs. Texas A&M. I know recently some of the Alabama players have come out and said this is not a revenge game from last year when A&M upset them at home, but I did read a report that stated Alabama has had that game on a continual loop in the weight room since the season began. So I don’t buy the argument that there isn’t any revenge angle here. Additionally, I doubt Alabama liked hearing about how great Johnny Football was all year. Further, I am sure they didn’t appreciate his off the field antics either. Despite all the off field issues involved, A&M’s Defense is flat out terrible, make that TERRIBLE! Stats: PYA Avg. 176.5 yds, RYA Avg. 273, PPG Avg. 29.5. Who did they play? Rice and Sam Houston State. So let me say it again, TERRIBLE. Johnny Football better come to play just so A&M can keep it respectable, but don’t expect it and don’t expect Saben to let his foot off the gas when they are up 21 or more. Lay the points with Alabama for 2 units.
SOUTHERN UTAH (+21.0) vs. …
It’s hard to believe that the NFL season is back. We are ready to dominate the 2013 season just like we did the 2012 season. Remember to sign up for the pick ‘em league. It’s a great way to track your picks against the spread throughout the season and you’ll have a chance to win an NFL Shop t-shirt. Click here to register. The league number is 35254 and the password is thepassrush.
My favorite spreads this week are Texans (-4.5) over Chargers, Bucs (-4) over the Jets, Redskins (-4) over the Eagles, and Colts (-10) over the Raiders. My upset of the week and favorite game to take the points in is Panthers (+4.5) over the Seahawks. I also have two teasers for you. A 1:00 teaser of Colts (-3.5) and Patriots (-3.5) and a special prime-time teaser for you featuring Redskins (+3) and Texans (+2.5). It’s week 1, and I take it easy through the first four weeks and dial it up around week 5. There’s still a lot of unknowns.
DENVER BRONCOS (-8) over Baltimore Ravens
We posted this full pick earlier this week. I’m passing on this game as the spread is too high against the defending Super Bowl Champions. With Elvis Dumervil now on the Ravens and Von Miller suspended, the Broncos also have question marks on defense, but I expect the Broncos offense to be clicking which should allow them to cruise to an easy victory.
PICK: Broncos (-7) – Confidence 6/10
PREDICTION: Broncos 27 – Ravens 17
New England Patriots (-9.5) over BUFFALO BILLS
I’m passing on this one. There’s a lot of merit into thinking the Patriots will crush the Bills here. The Bills have a rookie QB learning a …