NFL Picks

It turned out to be a great week: I won over 10 units, my team (the Eagles) won, and my fantasy team dominated.  It was one of the best Sunday’s betting-wise that I’ve ever had.  I ended up +11 units.  5/7 of the games that I played hit.

I put the most of my money on the Steelers (5 units) and Cowboys (4 units) and they both ended up winning big: there was no need to sweat those out.  My plays on the Saints, Cardinals, and Eagles also worked out as planned (7 units total).  The only games that I lost were the Chargers and Colts, but only 2 units.  My Sunday would have been incredible if the Chargers would have pulled that game out.  They were up by 5 and the Panthers scored a touchdown with 4 seconds left on the clock.  I hit the first 6 teams on my $10 7-team parlay, which would have paid $120.  All I needed was 1 incomplete pass at the end of that game, but the Panthers scored the TD.  That one hurt, but I’ll take this type of week any time.  Hopefully you guys made some solid calls this week as well.

My Picks Record So Far:
— Straight Up: 10-4
— Against The Spread: 9-5
— My Betting Units: +11…

Tomorrow, we’re treated to 2 Monday Night games. It was a great Sunday and I’m not particularly fond of either game. I finished up 13 units on my personal players and my picks went 10-3 straight up and 9-4 against the spread. I’m going to put 2 units on the Packers and 1 unit on the Raiders (with the points) to make things interesting.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS -2

I like the Packers more since they’re at home. Despite how great Adrian Peterson is, the Packers have more offensive weapons. I like what I saw from Aaron Rodgers this preseason, they have a talented back who can both run and catch the ball out of the backfield (which will be key if the Vikings start stuffing the run), they have 3 outstanding receivers in Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, and James Jones. Offensively, I give a slight edge to the Packers. Both teams have strong defenses. The Vikings were ranked 1st against the run last season, but 32nd against the pass. The Vikings then traded for the Chief’s sack-machine Jared Allen. That should help the Vikings passing defense tremendously. The Vikings will be facing a defense that was 11th against the pass and 14th against the run, but 6th in points allowed. The Vikings were ranked 12th in points allowed. The Packers have the edge on defense, but I think the addition of Jared Allen will be huge for the Vikings. With the Packers at home and with the edge on offense and defense, I give them the nod. I’ll put 2 units on the Packers. The Packers did a great job containing Adrian Peterson last season, so I’m not overly concerned about him, and you can count on …

Read this article to see my week 1 NFL picks. My personal plays this week are 5 units on the Steelers, 4 units on the Cowboys, 3 units on the Saints, 2 units on the Chargers, 2 units on the Cardinals, and 2 units on the Eagles.

I also did a small $10.00 7-team parlay that I like a lot. It’s rare that you hit these: usually 1 team will end up screwing you in the end, but they’re fun and can pay off big. I ended up hitting a few of these last year, which bailed me out of a bad week. This parlay has a good shot at hitting and it pays 12-1. I’m taking the Saints, Cardinals, Cowboys, Jets, Chargers, Eagles, and Steelers moneyline. Straight up, no points — I think it has a good shot. The Cards, Cowboys, and Jets have to come through for me on the road and the other 4 teams are heavy favorites at home. You may also want to throw the Colts in their too.

Good luck this week. The Giants pick got us off to a good start, let’s keep it going.…

NFL Week 1 is here.  All teams are 0-0 and each has feeling that they’re destined for a run at the Super Bowl regardless of what record they finished with the prior year.  I don’t like betting on the NFL until week 3.  I can guarantee you that there will be a lot of surprises week 1.  A handful of games will be determined by a special teams touchdown of a crucial turnover.  Deciding what games to take is a crapshoot week 1, but lets try to sort out the games and decide which games may be worth wagering on.  On to the NFL Week 1 betting analysis.

SPREADS TO TAKE:

HOUSTON TEXANS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS -6.5

I like the Steelers in this one.  The Texans are solid at home, but terrible on the road (2-6).  The Steelers have a solid offense and a solid defense.  Schaub didn’t do anything last season, but the Texans defense improved tremendously.  The Steelers are amongst the best home teams (7-1) in the league.  Go with the Steelers and be confident with the pick.

Prediction — Steelers 24 – Texans 13

Pick Against the Spread: Steelers -6.5 — Confidence 4/5
Pick Straight Up: Stelers — Confidence 5/5

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -3

This seems like a great spread to take.  The Saints should have a top 3 offense this season and their defense has been boosted tremendously with CB Randall Gay, LB Jonathan Vilma, and DT Sedrick Ellis.  The Bucs have a solid D (#3 in points allowed last season), but the Saints have too many offensive weapons to contain.  The Bucs are limited offensively.  Their primary receiver Joey Galloway is suffering from a groin injury, but will play.  I just …

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ NEW YORK GIANTS -4.5

Football season is about to kick off… finally.  This Thursday we’ll be treated to a classic NFC East rivalry, where the real football is played.  In all honesty, I wouldn’t bet on football until at least week 4 until we get a real feel for where teams are at.  Example: The Lions started last season 6-2 and everyone thought they were playoff bound, but they finished with a 7-9 record. However, you may be itching to start betting on football again so let’s break down this matchup.

The first thing that comes to mind is the loss of Strahan and Umenyiora.  Most people will be thinking the Giants will have no pass rush, and the Redskins new west coast offense will be able to expose the Giants when Jason Campbell gets all the time in the world in the pocket.  Don’t be fooled by the loss of the Giants two Pro-Bowl DEs.  The Giants won’t get close to the amount of sacks that they piled up last season, but their pass rush will still be effective.  Justin Tuck and Mathias Kiwanuka are as good as most DE tandems in the league and the Giants also picked up former first-round draft pick Jerome McDougle from the Eagles off waivers who had a strong preseason (2.5 sacks in 4 games).  The Giants also have to overcome the loss of S Gibril Wilson, which they should be able to do with first-round pick Kenny Phillips.  The Giants CBs are solid: Aaron Ross is probably the best young (3 years of experience of less) CB in the league and Corey Webster gets the job done.  I’m not worried about the Giants defense at all.

On offense, Eli …

It looks like the Giants line is between +11 and +13.  I not taking the game myself because as an Eagles fan, I want the Giants to lose.  I do, however, think that the Giants will cover this Sunday.  I think the Patriots escape with a 10-point victory.  I’m going to go ahead and say that the game will be something like 27-17 or 34-24.  Just like the Chargers, just like the Jaguars, and just like most of the teams that the Patriots faced since the Eagles in week 12, the Giants will be able to hang around before Brady closes the game out in the 4th quarter, which is why the Patriots are 1-7 against the spread in their last 8 games.  Remember, the Giants only lost by 3 the last time these teams played.

There are a few reasons I wouldn’t suggest taking the Patriots spread: Tom Brady says his foot is fine, but others say it contributed to his 3 INTs against the Chargers two weeks ago; Randy Moss has been shut down throughout the playoffs (translates into more short Welker yards that picks up small pieces, but leaves out the big play; that translates into more time off the clock and less chances to cover the 11-13 points); the Giants pass rush has been insane, with Brady on a bum foot, he’ll have trouble escaping any pressure; the Giants, to me, are playing just as inspired, if not more, than the Patriots: even though they won last week, they looked nervous, irritated, and even worn down.

There are a few reason why I would be reluctant if you want to take the Giants: Eli has been great, but he does have the occasional piss-poor game; the …

I just posted that the current Super Bowl line is -12.5.  Apparently there has been a lot of movement to the spread.  The line opened at Patriots -14 and a lot of the action came in on the Giants +14, this caused the spread to drop to Patriots -13 and then to where it is now at -12.5.  The spread may go down to -12.  Before I saw the spread, I was going to lean towards picking the Giants spread if they got a bunch of points (13 or more), but I won’t personally take the game myself because as described before (that I’m an Eagles fan), I will be hoping that they lose so I don’t have to hear it from every Giants fan that I know.

Here is what I came across at Vegas Watch:

There was about $90 million wagered in Nevada on the Super Bowl last year, which means there was something like $10 billion bet on it worldwide. That is greater than the GDP of 73 countries.

As expected, Pinnacle set the initial line at New England -14, and the over/under at 55. The early money has clearly been coming in on the Giants, as the line is now down to 13, and could drop to 12.5 in the near future. The Under is getting a lot of action as well, and is currently at 54.

The New England money line is -480, and the Giants are +440, putting the Pats at 81.7% to win. Apparently there is always a lot of action on the underdog’s money line in the Super Bowl, which makes sense, as people look at their momentum, saying they’re a “team of destiny” and such. It’ll be interesting to