NFL Picks

Sorry for the late update, but lets get down to business.  Here are my predictions for the NFC & AFC Championship games.  I think the best spread to take is the Packers -7.  I would hop on that before it moves to -7.5 because 80% of the action is on the Packers and for several good reason too.  The Patriots spread is too high, so I would stay away from that one.  Also, there is a new poll on the left, so be sure an vote on that.  Here is the analysis of the games:

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP – Sunday, January 20 – 3:00

San Diego Chargers @ New England Patriots -13.5

We all know the Chargers are banged up.  Rivers has a sprained knee and is questionable Sunday.  He’ll most likely sit out of practice, but should be ready to go Sunday.  Tomlinson is also questionable with a hyper-extended knee; however, he has practiced is expected to play.  More importantly, the Chargers might be without Rivers’ favorite target Antonio Gates, who is listed as day-to-day, and the man paving the way for L.T., Lorenzo Neal is also day-to-day.

The action on this game is surprisingly split 50-50, perhaps because the Patriots have covered only 1 of their last 7 games.  The Patriots beat the Chargers 38-14 early in the season, but that was when the Chargers started the season 1-3 and before their 8-game winning streak.  Rivers has been hot lately — a 100.0+ passer rating in 4 of his last 5 games — but with the knee injury, he’ll be losing a lot of mobility and that’s going to hold him back from the performances he’s been having.  In his last game against the Patriots, Rivers went 19/30, 179 …

Here are my predictions for the Divisional round of the playoffs this weekend.  Last week, my Wild Card playoff picks went 3-1 straight up and 3-1 against the spread.  I opted for the Bucs over the Giants, perhaps giving their defense too much credit. This week the spreads aren’t too favorable to the favorite, so I think taking the points this week may be the way to go.

SATURDAY DIVISIONAL ROUND PLAYOFF SPREADS:

Seattle Seahawks @ Green Bay Packers -9

9 points is too much to give up if you want to take the Packers.  It’s going to be cold and that usually translates into low scoring defensive battles.  Both teams points scored and points allowed are practically identical. Packers are 7-1 at home (6-1-1 against the spread). Seahawks are 3-5 on the road (3-5 against the spread). 64% of the consensus at Covers.com is taking the Seahawks +9 and 5/4 of the “experts” are taking the points too. I’m concerned about the Seahawks 2/11 3rd down conversions against the Redskins.  I’m going to go with the Packers win by 10 because I’m not impressed with the Seahawks and they’re not a good road team, while the Packers, on the other hand, are a dominant home team.  Green Bay’s 11th ranked defense and 2nd ranked offense also gives them an edge over Seattle’s 15th ranked defense and 9th ranked offense.

Prediction – Packers defeat Seahawks 28-17

Packers Moneyline – Confidence 4/5
Packers -9 Spread – Confidence 2/5

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New England Patriots – 13.5

I truly think the Jaguars have a chance to beat the Patriots, although an extremely small chance.  63% of the consensus and 8/11 “experts” at Covers.com say take the points.  I’m going to agree.  Last …

I wish everyone a Happy New Year.  Hopefully 2008 brings some good fortune as always, starting with the Wild Card weekend.  Here are the picks.

NFL WILD CARD SATURDAY SPREADS:

Washington Redskins @ Seattle Seahawks -4

Who would have though Todd Collins would be the man to lead this team to 4-straight wins and a trip to the playoffs.  He’s helped provide an offensive spark: in that stretch the offense has averaged 26.25 PPG.  Santana Moss has been hot, which has helped out Collins: 75, 71, and 115 yards from him in the last 3 games with 2 TDs.  In that 4-game stretch the defense has done its part too: allowing an average of just 13.25 PPG.  Both sides of the ball are doing what they need to do and are playing playoff-caliber football.  Washington’s defense is ranked 8th in yards allowed (SEA ranked 15th).  However, Washington is ranked 11th in points allowed (SEA ranked 6th).

The Seahawks have had offense this season, mostly through the passing game, which is ranked 8th (WAS ranked 14th).  The running game, which is ranked 20th (WAS ranked 12th), has been a problem for them at times though.

61% of the consensus at Covers.com is taking the Redskins, but the “experts” are split 4/4.  I can’t help but overlook the fact that the Seahawks are 7-1 at home and the Redskins are 4-4 on the road.  The Redskins have looked scary over the last few weeks, which is holding me back from taking the Seahawks.  Don’t underestimate Seattle’s home-field advantage.  They play great football in Seattle and “the 12th man” always give them a boost.  Plus, their team has a ton of playoff experience.  I’ll have to go with Seahawks.

Prediction – Seahawks defeat …

I hope everyone had a Merry Christmas and a wonderful holiday. Sorry for missing the week 16 picks. If you rode out the favorites such as the Colts, Jags, and Chargers you were in good shape. I think the only notable upset was the Bears over the Packers. I never like betting on Week 17 spreads because some teams are resting players and you just don’t know whether or not a particular team is going to show up to win or not, but regardless of that, there are a handful of Week 17 spreads to consider.

THE WEEK 17 NFL SPREADS I WOULD LOOK AT:

Tennessee Titans -6.5 @ Indianapolis Colts

You can count on Manning, Addai, and Reggie Wayne to only see a series or two. After that, I wouldn’t count on the Colts scoring too many points. I like the Titans to win and the Titans to cover with the Colts resting their starters.

Prediction – Titans defeat Colts – 23-10

Titans Moneyline – Confidence 5/5
Titans -6.5 Spread – Confidence 4/5

San Diego Chargers -8 @ Oakland Raiders

The Chargers will need to win this one to secure the 3rd spot in the AFC, which they definitely want to do in order to avoid the Jaguars and Patriots. The Raiders are in bad shape and have the worst run defense in the league, so L.T. should be able to run all over them. I was worried that the Steelers would be playing at 1:00 and if they lose, then the Chargers don’t have to worry about winning, but both teams are playing at 4:00, so that’s good news.

Prediction – Chargers defeat Raiders – 31-10

Chargers Moneyline – Confidence 5/5
Chargers -8 Spread – Confidence 4/5

New …