Football Picks Against the Spread

Huge weekend this past week, 3.9 units of profit and easily cashed my second GOY with Maryland winning 62-14.  Several games this week starting with a home dog outright winner tonight.

Tuesday November 2: Middle Tennessee State vs Arkansas State (+2.5) for 1 unit. My numbers have ASt winning this one outright 28-24, so I will gladly take the points here at home.

OUTRIGHT WINNER ARKST 51 MDST 24

Saturday Plays:

Air Force at Army (+7) for 2 units: My prediction for the game Army 27 AF 22.  Strong situational play in favor of Army here. First, it has been well documented over the years that west coast teams really struggle playing 12est games.  This game is slated for 12est, 10am Mtn time.  AF is coming off a disappointing rivalry loss as last week they failed to win or cover against Utah. This week they are called to step up again for another huge rivarly game and Army is a very strong team that will be ready for this big challenge.  I give the defensive edge here to Army and that just adds to value here with Army. Both teams offensives will be about equal as they both have strong rushing attacks, but both defensives should be prepared.

Northwestern (+6.5) vs Penn State for 1 unit: My prediction PSU 23-21.  Northwestern brings a very balanced offensive attack that will challenge this PSU defense.  I still think PSU has a lot of questions and weaknesses on offensive side of the ball.  They had success last week, but that Michigan defense is one of the worst in the country.  Look for this game to be close throughout and may be decided on who controls the ball and doesn’t turn it over. 

Colorado …

Question: Week 8 sit or start: Warner vs. Schaub?

I have not seen Carolina defense play this year, but they seem to be very inconsistent. Arizona is headed east to play against the Panthers, which has me a bit concerned. I’m going with Kurt Warner right now, but I love the Texans at home in a matchup against  Cincinatti. Should I bench Warner for Schaub?

Answer:

I would play Schaub. The bengals make most of the teams they play look like all stars.

Add your own answer in the comments!…

Question: Need help with my Week 8 RBs and WRs.

I am in a league that gives points for receiptions. There’s only 8 teams in my league.  My lineup is stacked.  I need some help picking out 3 RB and 3 WR and I’m looking for some help.  Here’s who I have.

RB: Maurice Jones-Drew, Jamal Lewis, Willie Parker, Steve Slaton, Willis McGahee.

WR: Plaxico Burress, Santonio holmes, Vincent Jackson, T.J. Houshmanzadeh, Roddy White

Best answer:

Start Maurice Jones-Drew, Steve Slaton, and Willis McGahee, who looks like he’s back to his former form.

At WR, go with Plaxico Burress, Vincent Jackson, and Roddy White.

Add your own answer in the comments!…

I apologize to my FF, Faithful Followers, for the split in the NC State FSU game. There should have been multiple extra scores in the game, but hey that’s the game of football. Today I have done a lot of researching and a few things have caught my eye. Saturday will be the day of the OVER.

1.) Tennessee Over 49

– I like the over in this game. That is all to be said for this one.

2.)Florida Over 47.5

-I like the over in this game because of a few different statistics: Florida’s games have gone over 10 out of the last 11 times after allowing 200 yards rushing their past game, they are 4-1 after allowing 20 points or less in their previous game, 4-1 after an ATS loss, and the Gators games go over in 8 of their last 10 games at neutral sites. Georgia’s games have gone over in 5 or their last 6 games as favorites, and the over is 4-1 in their last 5 games while playing in October. (courtesy of covers.com).

3.) Iowa Over 50.5

-Iowa’s defense is built for more interior play. They are still, for the most part, a traditional smash mouth football type of team that the Big 10 has lost sight of. Iowa did hold Michigan’s spread attack to minimal points, but with Denard and the Wolverines being inside the red zone of the Hawkeyes  while turning the ball over proves to me that a more open type of offensive attack could do the Iowa defense in. Now don’t get me wrong I’m not saying that either of these teams aren’t strong defensive teams, but I’m just going by stats and trends. Michigan State’s games have gone …

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Welcome back to another edition of our weekly NFL previews. This preview will be presented by Captain Morgan this week and will highlight the NFL’s top 5 matchups for this legendary Halloween weekend, which will feature a Sunday Night game between the New Orleans Saints and Pittsburgh Steelers. Arrrrrrrr!

TENNESSEE TITANS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-3.5)

Like the Cowboys, the Chargers have gotten off to a very poor start. They’re now sitting at 2-5 thanks to 4 road losses and a home loss to the Patriots. The Titans have been on fire at 5-2 coming off a strong comeback win against my beloved (and often hated) Philadelphia Eagles. The Chargers aren’t as bad as their record, which is why they’re favored by 3.5 points. Their road woes have also really hurt them. I used the “must win” factor as my sole reason for taking the Cowboys at home on Monday Night and it backfired on me, although I gave the pick a mere 2/5 and simply couldn’t forecast Tony Romo going out of the game in the 2nd quarter.

If Chargers get their 6th loss before at the halfway point of the season, they can kiss their season goodbye. Now they have to face a tough Titans team whose defense has been phenomenal despite the losses of Vanden Bosch and Haynesworth. I’m going to recommend taking the points here. The Chargers have too many injuries on both sides of the ball to truly dominate a strong football team here. Although the Chargers play great football at home, they showed last week that they couldn’t overcome the injuries they were faced with. However, I just can’t be …

Solid week last weekend with winners on Alabama and Louisville. Indiana was my only loser as they were plagued with turnovers. I am releasing Game of the Year #2 this weekend.

GAME OF THE YEAR #2:

Wake Forest at Maryland (-5) for 2 units. This Maryland team is the most improved squad in all of college football.  I am not going to say that they are ready to win the ACC, but they are a fundamentally sound football team that week in and week out play consistent football.  Consistency leads to great betting opportunities and this is what we have here.  After calculating the line/score for this game I have Maryland winning 38-19, so win I saw this 5-point spread I jumped all over it.  WF has really struggled on the road this year going 0-3 SU and 0-3 ATS and I don’t see anything that would lead me to believe they are going to be much more competitive here this weekend.  Maryland is very athletic both on offense and defense and rarely turn the ball over. Look for Maryland to win this one going away.

GOY WINNER! MARYLAND WINS 62-14!

Louisville (+9.5) at Pittsburgh for 1 unit: Lost 20-3

Clemson at Boston College (+7) for 1 unit: Again, got to lean with the better defense. Clemson has had a propensity for turning the ball over several times this year and there is no way you can trust that offense on the road laying a touchdown. But in Clemson’s defense, if BC doesn’t rise to the occasion it could be a long day.  OUTRIGHT WINNER 16-10.

Baylor (+7.5) at Texas for 1 unit: OUTRIGHT WINNER 30-22.

San Jose State at New Mexico State (+3.5) for 1 unit: I have to …

NC State Offensive Attack

What a compelling game on a Thursday night! What an ACC Matchup with Florida State traveling to North Carolina State. Florida State and NC State are two of the top teams in the ACC and have very powerful offenses. Both teams average over 420 yards a game. Florida state with 221 in the air and 211 on the ground while NC State averages 323 in the air and 136 on the ground. Florida state also averages 34.9 ppg while NC State throws up 36 a game.

The over is 5-0 in both team’s last five games when NC State was a home underdog, 4-0 when NC State is an underdog from 3.5-10 points, 13-3 in NC State’s last 16 conference games, 6-2 when FSU is favored by 3.5-10 points.

After taking a look at the line movement in this game I really like the over as well. The line opened up at 56.5 and is currently at 59. Jump on this line now.

Secondly, I like the NC State Wolfpack in this Thursday night matchup. The Wolfpack were down 21-0 after the 1st quarter, but tightened up their chin straps after the first and made a comeback, which I believe boosted their confidence and will make them want to come out and smash their ACC foe in FSU. There are a few more reasons I am liking the Wolf Pack tonight:

1.) NC State is 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings

2.) NC State is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings at NC State

3.) The underdog, NC State in this case, is 8-0-1 ATS in the last 9 games between both teams.

If the Wolf Pack can step up on their rush …