Football Picks Against the Spread

Read this article to see my week 1 NFL picks. My personal plays this week are 5 units on the Steelers, 4 units on the Cowboys, 3 units on the Saints, 2 units on the Chargers, 2 units on the Cardinals, and 2 units on the Eagles.

I also did a small $10.00 7-team parlay that I like a lot. It’s rare that you hit these: usually 1 team will end up screwing you in the end, but they’re fun and can pay off big. I ended up hitting a few of these last year, which bailed me out of a bad week. This parlay has a good shot at hitting and it pays 12-1. I’m taking the Saints, Cardinals, Cowboys, Jets, Chargers, Eagles, and Steelers moneyline. Straight up, no points — I think it has a good shot. The Cards, Cowboys, and Jets have to come through for me on the road and the other 4 teams are heavy favorites at home. You may also want to throw the Colts in their too.

Good luck this week. The Giants pick got us off to a good start, let’s keep it going.…

Each week, we’ll put together a Fantasy start ’em or sit ’em. Also remember, if you didn’t check out my NFL Week 1 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread, check those out.

Start ‘Em:

1.) Greg Jennings — The Vikings ranked last in passing defense last season. Jennings only had 43 yards and 1 TD and 63 yards against the Vikings the last season, but I’m expecting more from him this game. The Vikings should be able to shut down Ryan Grant (they were ranked 1st against the run last season), so that will mean Rodgers will have to go to the air more often.

2.) Thomas Jones — With Brett Favre making his regular season debut with the Jets, I expect him to rely on the running game to get him comfortable and the running game should do wonders against the team that was dead last against the run last season (Miami).

3.) Laurence Maroney — With Brady on a bum foot and Moss seeing constant double teams, it makes sense for the Pats to run the ball a lot with Maroney against a team that was 28th against the run. The Pats should see the endzone often and hopefully, that means lots of goal line carries for Maroney.

4.) Marion Barber — Dallas should be able to score in bunches against the Browns. Barber should be good for at least 100 yards and 1 TD.

5.) Joseph Addai — With Manning still recoverying from knee surgery, I expect Addai to be his best friend during his recovery time. Expect Addai to get a ton of touches this game.

6.) Joey Galloway — Galloway has a pulled groin, which is a concern, he hasn’t practiced all preseason, and …

NFL Week 1 is here.  All teams are 0-0 and each has feeling that they’re destined for a run at the Super Bowl regardless of what record they finished with the prior year.  I don’t like betting on the NFL until week 3.  I can guarantee you that there will be a lot of surprises week 1.  A handful of games will be determined by a special teams touchdown of a crucial turnover.  Deciding what games to take is a crapshoot week 1, but lets try to sort out the games and decide which games may be worth wagering on.  On to the NFL Week 1 betting analysis.

SPREADS TO TAKE:

HOUSTON TEXANS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS -6.5

I like the Steelers in this one.  The Texans are solid at home, but terrible on the road (2-6).  The Steelers have a solid offense and a solid defense.  Schaub didn’t do anything last season, but the Texans defense improved tremendously.  The Steelers are amongst the best home teams (7-1) in the league.  Go with the Steelers and be confident with the pick.

Prediction — Steelers 24 – Texans 13

Pick Against the Spread: Steelers -6.5 — Confidence 4/5
Pick Straight Up: Stelers — Confidence 5/5

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -3

This seems like a great spread to take.  The Saints should have a top 3 offense this season and their defense has been boosted tremendously with CB Randall Gay, LB Jonathan Vilma, and DT Sedrick Ellis.  The Bucs have a solid D (#3 in points allowed last season), but the Saints have too many offensive weapons to contain.  The Bucs are limited offensively.  Their primary receiver Joey Galloway is suffering from a groin injury, but will play.  I just …

Here are my predictions for the 2008-2009 NFL Season.

AFC:

AFC East Winner – New England Patriots (12-4) – I don’t think the Patriots will be anything close to going 16-0. Their defense will be hurting after losing Asante Samuel to the Eagles and Randall Gay to the Saints. The loss of Donte Stallworth will mean that Randy Moss is double teamed even more so than last year. I expect the Jets to manage 1 win off them and other losses could include @ Chargers, @ Colts, and Pittsburgh.

AFC North Winner – Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) – The Bengals and Ravens are clearly not competing for the division, so that should be 4 easy wins for the Steelers. I don’t see the Browns topping them yet. Plus, Anderson began to be exposed towards the end of the season. The Steelers offense will be just as good as Cleveland’s. Santonio Holmes should be even better this season and Fast Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall will be a great 1-2 punch.

AFC South Winner – Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6) – I expect the Jaguars to finally overtake the Colts this year. They’ve added Jerry Porter to boost the receiving corp, Reggie Williams will have a breakout season, they’ve added two top DEs in the draft (Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves). There are question marks surrounding Manning’s knee. I like the Jaguars.

AFC West Winner – San Diego Chargers (12-4) – This is a no-brainer. They’re in the weakest division in the NFL.

AFC Wild Card – Indianapolis Colts (10-6) – Despite me going with the Jags as the AFC South winner, the Colts aren’t missing the playoffs.

AFC Wild Card – New York Jets (9-7) – I think the last wild card will …

Round 1: I like my draft very much (I think I have a top 3 team), but not thrilled with it.   I wasn’t happy  drawing the 7th pick.  I would have loved to get my hands on LT, BW, or AP.  They were taken and then Tom Brady, Joseph Addai, and Steven Jackson came off the board, so Randy Moss was a no-brainer at #7 to me.  You can’t argue another year with the best quarterback in the league won’t produce good numbers.  He put up 23 TDs and nearly 1,500 yards (1,493 to be exact) last season.  I don’t expect him to get those kind of numbers again, but a 1,300 yard, 16 TD season is more than reasonable to warrant the 7th pick in the draft.

Round 2: I was planning on taking a top RB or Brady with my first-round pick, but after taking the undisputed top WR in the draft, I felt compelled to take a top RB in round 2.  At 14, it was too early jump on an injured Manning, Tony Romo, or Drew Brees.  In fact, Manning and Romo were taken before me, so it was Drew Brees or a top RB.  I was thinking in my …

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ NEW YORK GIANTS -4.5

Football season is about to kick off… finally.  This Thursday we’ll be treated to a classic NFC East rivalry, where the real football is played.  In all honesty, I wouldn’t bet on football until at least week 4 until we get a real feel for where teams are at.  Example: The Lions started last season 6-2 and everyone thought they were playoff bound, but they finished with a 7-9 record. However, you may be itching to start betting on football again so let’s break down this matchup.

The first thing that comes to mind is the loss of Strahan and Umenyiora.  Most people will be thinking the Giants will have no pass rush, and the Redskins new west coast offense will be able to expose the Giants when Jason Campbell gets all the time in the world in the pocket.  Don’t be fooled by the loss of the Giants two Pro-Bowl DEs.  The Giants won’t get close to the amount of sacks that they piled up last season, but their pass rush will still be effective.  Justin Tuck and Mathias Kiwanuka are as good as most DE tandems in the league and the Giants also picked up former first-round draft pick Jerome McDougle from the Eagles off waivers who had a strong preseason (2.5 sacks in 4 games).  The Giants also have to overcome the loss of S Gibril Wilson, which they should be able to do with first-round pick Kenny Phillips.  The Giants CBs are solid: Aaron Ross is probably the best young (3 years of experience of less) CB in the league and Corey Webster gets the job done.  I’m not worried about the Giants defense at all.

On offense, Eli …

Here are my predictions for the 2007-2008 NFL Season.

AFC:

AFC East Winner – New England Patriots (12-4) – This is a no brainer. The Pats don’t have any holes on both sides of the ball. I doubt anyone in the AFC East will be able to get a win from them, but maybe Mangenious can steal a win from them.

AFC North Winner – Baltimore Ravens (11-5) – With the new rushing weapon in Willis McGahee, the Ravens will be able to effectively run the ball to cure their offensive woes. Last year, the Ravens ranked 30th in yards and 25th in points. With one of the league’s top defense (2nd in fewest points allowed, 1st in fewest yards allowed) it is easy to pick the Ravens to win the division. This year, expect the Ravens’ offensive numbers to go up, while the defensive numbers stay at the top of the league.

AFC South Winner – Indianapolis Colts (10-6) – There should and will be concerns will the Colts defense, who is starting a lot of new players on the defensive side of the ball, but their offense will be as potent as ever to make up for points the defense gives up.

AFC West Winner – San Diego Chargers (12-4) – Another no brainer here. LT will continue to be ridiculous to lead the Chargers as the top offense in the league.

AFC Wild Card – Denver Broncos (11-5) – It’s going to be hard to pass on the Broncos this year: Dre’ Bly and Champ Bailey should shut down most teams’ passing attack. Travis Henry will put up some big numbers in the Broncos’ zone-blocking system. Plus, they have a fairly easy schedule.

AFC Wild Card – …