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Message To Our Readers

Posted by in NFL Picks on October 13th, 2008 | Comment »

First off, I apologize for letting those down who have followed my picks. The last two weeks haven’t went so well for my picks. Due to the cold streak, I will no longer be betting on the NFL, or any sports for that matter, for the time being. Betting on sports is a crap shoot. I always figured that not only do you have a 50/50 shot, but you have the benefit of using statistics and knowledge of the teams in order to make an informed decision. I always thought that past results were the best indication of future performance, and that’s what makes sports betting so misleading. The fact of the matter is that what a team has done in their past 5 games has no bearing on what will occur in the current game. The bottom line is that it’s 0-0 at the beginning of the game with 60 minutes to play and there’s no way of telling what may happen. No handicapper can plan for every contingency in a game. You’ve heard all the cliches: any given Sunday, it’s a game of inches, the disparity between teams in the NFL is so small, more games in the NFL are lost than won. Really, most games are decided by 1 or 2 plays: a crucial third down conversion, a turnover, a poor referee call for roughing the passer on 3rd down when they got a stop to bring up 4th down.

I was shocked by some of the outcomes last week. If you told me the Rams would upset the Redskins, I would have laughed in your face. The Redskins, who are in the top 5 of the power rankings, at home against the 2nd worst team in the league. There’s no way they could lose, right? Wrong, they lost. The Lions, who have been giving up over 38 points a game, holding the Vikings to 12 points when the Vikings have Adrian Peterson and their weakness is against the run. There’s no way they could hold the Vikings to 12 points with that defense, right? Wrong again. Are you a believer on only betting on home teams? Ask the Saints how that worked out last week or the Redskins how that worked out this week.

I know my picks have been lousy the last two weeks, but you can’t place the blame on me. The best winning percentage on ESPN’s panel of experts is Mortensan’s 58-29 record. That’s 67% and straight up — not even against the spread! If you made them make their picks against the spread, the best winning percentage would probably be 57% and these are former players and coaches who do nothing but talk football all day.

To close, I’ll continue to do a write up on my thoughts on the games each week and give you my 2 cents, but I’ll no longer be betting on games. Sorry for the poor picks, but really, the NFL is just crazy. Best of luck to all of you in the future.

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