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NFL Week 7 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread

Posted by in NFL Picks on October 15th, 2008 | Comment »


Here is my 2 cents on the games this week. I like the Steelers -10 since Palmer will be out for Cincy. The Bears at home might be a good play over the Vikings. I like the teaser of Saints +10 over the Panthers and over 37.5. That one should see lots of points and the Saints should keep it close even if they drop the game to a Panthers team that seems to roll offensively at home. Jets -3 is good if you want to look for a low spread to take, but they’re on the road, which is always a concern. I like Houston -8.5 over the Lions since the Lions are garbage, especially on the road. I think the Browns should cover the 7 if they can play the same football they played on Monday, but being on the road on a short week against a team wanting to bounce back from last week’s huge upset via the Rams doesn’t look promising for them. 10.5 is too much for the Giants to give up based on the Browns and Bengals games, but a Seahawks-style whooping isn’t out of question. I’d still take the 10.5 in that one, but you also have to factor in the West Coast team playing on the East Coast, which has been huge deal this year (the West Coast teams are 0-11 this year).

Personally, I’m not betting on the games this week since the NFL season has been ridiculous this season. I’ll see how this week goes to see if my mojo is back. Additionally, I realized I have a future on the Phillies to win the World Series. I put $10 on them when the odds were 20-1, so if the Phillies can pull off a championship, I’ll have $210 in my account that I can start to play with. If I had to make 1 play this week I really like Saints +10, Over 37.5 teaser.


The 5-0 Titans, fresh off a bye week, with a top 3 defense. They’re allowing less than 13 points a game. They’re running attack has been brutal and thats where the Chiefs have been struggling. I expect them to keep things going. I would love this spread at 7, but they should be able to beat up on the Chiefs. They’ll need to produce some turnovers to cover in this one though.


The Chargers have been a completely different team at home than on the road. Remember that West Coast teams are 0-10 this year when they’ve had to travel to the East Coast and play a 1:00 game since it feels like 10:00 a.m. to them. Trent Edwards is probable, which is great news for the Bills. I can see this one going either way, but I like the Bills since they have been playing good football at home and the West Coast on the East Coast factor is pretty huge. Taking the Bills is pretty much taking east coast home field on a bye against a west coast team. If this game were played on a neutral field, I would take the Chargers, but based on the Miami game, they don’t show up on the east coast.


The Bengals will be without Carson Palmer again. Last week the Jets turned over the ball 3 times and still managed to beat the Bengals by 12. With the Steelers off the bye week, I think they should be able to dominate this game. The Steelers looked outstanding @ Jacksonville two weeks ago. The Steelers dropped one to the Eagles on the road thanks to the Eagles outstanding pass rush, which the Bengals don’t have. Big Ben should have time in the pocket to pick this defense apart just like he did to the Jags.


The Ravens #1 defense in almost every category suffered a huge let down last week against Peyton Manning and the Colts. The Dolphins lost by 1 to the Texans. This is an interesting matchup. The Dophins offense has the edge over the Ravens and their defense has played well, especially if they can bring the same effort that they brought against the Chargers at home. I wouldn’t bet on this game as it’s a toss up and both teams have been inconsistent. This one will most likely be determined by which team gets the most turnovers, which gives that Ravens D an edge.

UPDATE: Samarri Rolle and Dawan Landry are out and Tom Zbikowski and Fabian Washington are questionable. Those are some key injuries to that defense. The Ravens D didn’t look the same last week with those players out. I say taking Miami at home is the way to go by playing the injury card. Plus, Joe Flacco has been a huge liability to this team.


I wonder how the Cowboys will do without Romo. Obviously, Marion Barber will see his load increased and I’m sure the Cowboys will want to work the short stuff with Jason Witten. Brad Johnson still has the arm and the accuracy, but is as mobile as a statue, so that limits the deep ball even with T.O. and now Roy Williams. The Cowboys better bring their A game since this isn’t a lock with Romo out, but they clearly still have the edge over a poor Rams team. I’ll be cheering my ass off for the Rams so the Eagles can gain more ground on them while they’re on their bye week. I’m hoping that a few offensive miscues can cost the Cowboys this one.


The Bears have some injury issues with both starting CBs banged up, so check up on that. The Bears offense has been solid and their defensive front 7 should keep Peterson under 100. I’m shocked the Vikings could only manage 12 points off a team that has been giving up over 30 points all season long. I would take the Bears at home.


The Panthers had a huge let down last week, when many people (except me) expected them to win in Tampa Bay. The Panthers, however, are are completely different team when they’re playing at home. I’ve been surprised with the Saints defense despite some of the injuries that they’ve had. I think this one should be an offensive showcase, which makes the over 44.5 appealing. An over 37.5, Saints +10 teaser looks good on paper.


So Eli got his one God-awful game out of the way against the Browns last week. Remember his game last year against the Vikings? He always manages to blow at least one game a year, but he usually comes back strong. Now he’ll be at home against a very very bad defense. The 49ers offense has been able to hang in most games through, so they’re fully capable of covering the 10.5 this game. A Giants blowout isn’t out of question though if that Giants offense is clicking. Eli’s chest is also a huge concern. He was injured by Shaun Rodgers last week and has some bruised ribs, but is expected to practice should play this week.


The Lions remain winless, but they showed up defensively last week against the Vikings. Now without Roy Williams and Jon Kitna, this team is in shambles. I think their defensive woes will continue when they’re on the road against an offense that plays very well at home. I’ll take the Texans to cover. Expect a big day from Andre Johnson and Steve Slaton.


The Jets have been looking pretty good on both sides of the ball. If Favre can protect the football this game, the Jets should win this one over the Raiders. The Raiders aren’t looking too strong.


The Browns offense is back! Derek Anderson may have put a stop to the Brady Quin talk based on last week’s performance. The Browns were a completely different team last week, but the Monday Night at home off a bye week clearly played a big part of that. Can they play the same way on the road against a team that just had a demoralizing loss in the last seconds of a game? The Redskins should return to form and this will shape up to a very good game. I wouldn’t take the Redskins spread, I think you’re better off taking the points. The Redskins should win this one, but the Browns should keep it close.


This one will be great to watch. The Colts offense finally got going last week and their defense also showed up to prove the naysayers who say that can’t play without Bob Sanders wrong. If the Colts can get this W, they should be the favorite to win the AFC when they get Sanders back. Aaron Rodgers/Greg Jennings have also been tearing it up. This one could go either way and I’m just looking forward to watching a good football game in this one. I would take the over 4.5 TD passes in this one!


The Seahawks are very bad and the Bucs defense is playing outstanding, but I don’t want to give up 10.5 to a team that isn’t an offensive juggernaut. 7 of the Bucs 27 last week came by way of a blocked kick returned for a TD. The Bucs are fully capable of stomping the Seahawks, but I don’t like the high spread. With Matt Hasselbeck out, the Seahawks are in big trouble though.


I should piss off the person I’m up against this week in fantasy football with Jay Cutler and Randy Moss. So far on Monday Night points have come easy and the stars show up. After looking pretty good against San Fran, the Patriots returned to garbage against San Diego. The Broncos have been up and down all season long. Generally, both teams have been awful to bet on. Denver is 1-5 ATS and the Patriots are 2-3 ATS. I think the Pats have problems keeping Cutler/Marshall in check. I’m still not sold on Cassel, so I say go with the Broncos, but the Broncos have been a very bad team to bet one.  WR Eddie Royal and TE Tony Sheffler are questionable for the Broncos.  They are 2 key players in that Broncos offense.  Check on their status before the game.

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