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NFL Week 14 Betting Reaction, Tonight’s Pick

Posted by in NFL Picks on December 7th, 2008 | Comment »


The Bears cashed in 3 units on the 1:00 game.  I had a 6-team parlay that the Packers busted when they lost on a last second field goal at home to the Texans.  I hit the Titans, Bears, and Saints/Falcons over, and then have Jets -4 and Patriots -4.5 coming up, so we’ll see how those go.  I decided to make a last second bet on the Vikings -10.  They won by only 4.  I should have opted for the Titans or Colts, but didn’t like the 14 or 13.5 spreads.  I’m still in the black and have some big 4:00 games coming up.

To make up for the Vikings pick, I put 2 units on the Steelers -4.  I did this right after I heard that Marion Barber was out for the Cowboys.  It’s in Pittsburgh, it’s cold, and the Cowboys don’t really have anything in their backfield, so they’ll struggle in Pittsburgh in the cold.  In fact, Romo started the game off by throwing a pick to Polamalu.  It should be a close game, but I’ll take the Steelers at home in the cold.  Dallas is up 13-6, but Steelers are threatening with 3:17 left.  Pittsburgh ties it up, but the chances of covering 4 are slim.  Scratch that, Romo throws a pick 6!  Thank you Romo for stepping up when I need you too.  Pittsburgh wins this one 20-13.

My big game of the week (Patriots -3) pushed.  I’m certainly glad I took the line at -3.  I knew I was onto something with the Bears and Titans.  I played the Jets, which was the wrong game to play.  I thought they would return to their winning ways, but they’ve now suffered two big losses after their huge win over the Titans.


Tonight is not really a good game to bet on, but I’ll dabble in it since the Steelers bailed me out with a late game INT returned for 7 to cover.   I expect tonight’s game to be very low scoring just like the Steelers/Cowboys game.  The over/under is already low at 35, so I’ll tease it up to 41.5 and take the under.  That’s a 21-20 game.  This one should see a max of 4 TDs and 3 FGs unless some sloppy turnovers lead to touchdowns.  I like the Ravens at home on Sunday night, but I’m a bit concerned with the injuries they have, so double check on those.  I don’t expect the Redskins to do much because they’re in an offensive funk and Clinton Portis is questionable and even if he plays, he won’t be close to 100%.

TONIGHT’S PICK: 2-unit teaser, Ravens (PK), Under 41.5.

UPDATE: Nailed that pick.  After it was all said and done, I ended up even for this week.  The only games I played that didn’t work out were the Jets and Vikings.  The picks I nailed were the Bears, Ravens, Titans, Saints/Falcons Over, and the Steelers happened to work out as well.

I also warned you guys to not take the Giants. Never write off the Eagles! They have Cleveland next week at home on Monday night followed by 2 division games.  Ever since the Cardinals, it’s a playoff game for the Eagles and they still have a chance to sneak in.

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