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NFL Week 15 Picks and Predictions Against the Spread

Posted by in NFL Picks on December 10th, 2008 | Comment »

I just took a quick look at the spreads this week in the NFL.  So far I like the Packers -1.5 over the Jaguars.  The Packers have been dissappointing lately, but they’re not a bad team.  They’re just barely getting beat.  The Jags have been great to bet against (3-10 ATS).  They’re also a dismal 1-5 at home.  Green Bay averages 8 more points per game than the Jaguars.  GB is 7-2 ATS against a team with a losing record in their last 9.   The Jags are 1-12 ATS in their last 13 on grass.  Although Green Bay has lost and hasn’t covered in their last 3, the Jaguars have lost and haven’t covered in their last 4.  The Jags will be without there best corner, so count on Greg Jennings to have a field day.  The loss of LB Nick Barnett has hurt that Packers D, but the Jags haven’t proven anything offensively other than the fact that that they’ll be lucky to score more than 14 points.  With CB Mathis out for the Jags, I really like the Packers in this one, especially since it’s basically a pick ’em at -1.5.

Pittsburgh and the Ravens clash in Baltimore.  The over/under is 34.5.  The Ravens have allowed 6.67 PPG in their last 3.  Pittburgh has allowed 11 PPG in their last 4.  This one should be a 13-10 game barring any INTs returned for TDs.  This one shouldn’t break 20-14, so I like the under.  However, the last time these teams played, everyone was all over the under, but the over actually hit.  That’s because Flacco fumbled, which led to a TD.  However, Flacco has learned quickly as a rookie and is doing a much better job at protecting the football.

I also like the Chargers -5.5 over the Chiefs.  The Chargers have some extra rest after playing on Thursday.  KC has allowed 30 PPG in their last 3 and that KC D is allowing over 400 yards of offense at home.

Those are the only spreads that jumped off the page at me.  Let me know what you think.

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