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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Tennessee Titans Pick Against the Spread

Posted by in NFL Picks on September 8th, 2009 | Comment »


Week 1 of the NFL season kicks off Thursday night with the Super Bowl champion Steelers facing the Tennessee Titans.  76% of the bets on the spread in this one are being placed on the Steelers.  80% of the money is taking the over and that might also be a good play since it’s set at mere 35 points.  One score past a 20-14 game and it’s in the money, but with these defenses, I’m not touching the over.

I think taking the Super Bowl defending Steelers at home is clearly the play to make.  Pittsburgh is 13-3 at home in the last 2 years.  Pittsburgh is also 7-2 against-the-spread (ATS) in their last 9 games.  Tennesee is 3-5-1 ATS in their last 9 games.  When these teams faced eachother in week 16 last year, Tennessee came out on top, 31-14.  Pittsburgh pretty much has the same squad from last season with the exception of Nate Washington, who is now with the Titans.  The Titans biggest loss is Albert Haynesworth.

I’m anticipating a pretty tight game from two very good defenses.  With the loss of Haynesworth, I expect the Steelers to commit to the run, try and control a clock, and grind this one out with a close win.  With as strong Steelers defense, and more importantly, a tough run defense, I expect that Titans running game to stay in check. I’m taking the Steelers to cover, but I’m not going to bet too much on it since I don’t see the Steelers running up the score much on a tough defense and the bet probably won’t be in the money until the 4th quarter.  Plus, one missed tackle on Chris Johnson and he just put up 7.

Prediction: Steelers 20 – Titans 13

Free Pick: Steelers -6 over Titans (Confidence: 2/5)

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