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SMART BET COLLEGE PICKS WEEK 8: Including Game of the Year Release #1

Posted by in College Football Picks on October 19th, 2009 | Comment »

Overall Profit 2.7 units (updated 10/26 at 10:06 pm)

Weekly Loss -1.9 units (updated 10/26 at 10:06 pm)

Just like last week, I have already bet several games early and am releasing them to you so that you can shop around and get the best available line.

1) Air Force at Utah (-11) for 1 unit. Utah should dominate this game from start to finish. Way better balanced attack. AF’s offense can be stopped.

Utah 23 Air Force 16 L for 1.1 units

2) Wake Forest at Navy (-2.5) for 1 unit. Navy continues to improve and will take advantage of weak road team in WF.

Navy 13 Wake Forest 10 W for 1 unit

3) Indiana at Northwestern (-5.5) for 2 units. Northwestern is simply a better squad top to bottom. Indiana is one dimensional and Northwestern should be able to shut them down.

Northwestern 29 Indiana 28 L of 2.2 units

4) Tulsa (-7) at UTEP for 1 unit. I have not bet this game yet myself because I know there are still some 7s out there and the Hilton had the line at -7.5 already.

UTEP 28 TULSA 24 L of 1.1 units

5) Clemson (+6) at Miami for 1 unit.  Clemson can match the speed of Miami and are playing much better than Miami right now. I will take the points.

Clemson 40 Miami 37 W for 1 unit

6) Kent State at Ohio (-10) for 2 unit. Ohio continues to roll. Kent State playing back to back road games in conference, tough spot for them.

Kent State 20 Ohio 11 L for 2.2 units

7) Arizona State (+6) at Stanford for 1 unit. Really like how ASU is playing right now. This would be a solid upset, but they will keep it close throughout.

Stanford 33 Arizona State 14 L for 1.1 units

8) GAME OF THE YEAR RELEASE #1: (I actually hate to use this phrase and you will not see this out of me very often, but the line for this game is completely off and you need to take advantage of this opportunity.) Georgia Tech (-4.5) vs Virginia for 2 units. Virginia does not have the defense to stop the attack of GT. The score should absolutely be 35-7.

Georgia Tech 34 Virginia 9 W for 2 units

9) Clemson/Miami OVER 44 for 1 unit. Either of these two offenses could score this alone. I do like both of these defenses, but this number should be 50.

Clemson/Miami Total 77 W for 1 unit

10) Tulsa/UTEP UNDER 59.5 for 1 unit. As I have repeated, Tulsa’s D is very solid and as a team they have went under the total 4 times. I see this game in the area of Tulsa 37 UTEP 17.

TULSA/UTEP TOTAL 52 W for 1 unit

11) Florida State (+2.5) vs UNC for 1 unit. I have looked at this game for about 3 to 4 hours today alone and have landed firmly on FSU. There are several factors to that analysis including: key line movement, “smart” money, power ratings from 3 different sources, strength of schedule, and the fact that Bowden’s career may be riding on this game. FSU wins 24-10.

FLORIDA STATE 30 UNC 27 W for 1 unit

12) Fresno State (-24) at New Mexico State for 1 unit.

Fresno 34 New Mexico State 3 W for 1 unit

13) Penn State at Michigan (+4.5) for 1 unit.

Penn State 35 Michigan 10 L for 1.1 units


2 – TEAM PARLAY: Georgia Tech (-5.5) and Ohio (-9.5)  for 1 unit.

GT W Ohio L L for 1.1 units

I will be releasing other games as the week goes on.

Thanks for all the comments.

Good Luck.

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