Sunday Night Play: Steelers vs. Ravens

Posted by Vegas Martin in NFL Picks on November 29th, 2009 | Comment »

Hope you capitalized off of the SUNDAY SPECIAL TEASER: Chargers -6.5, Vikings -3.5. That was my biggest and only play of the day. Although we had an 11-0 streak going into Saturday, we gave some of that back with 2 bad beats on Saturday, but we were able to make up for that with the teaser today.

I’m still thinking about what to do tonight. The spread moved from Ravens -9 to Ravens -7.5, so a bunch of people are siding with the Steelers and the points. First the injuries, Roethlisberger is out, Polamalu is out, and Suggs is out. Rookie Dennis Dixon gets the start tonight. This is his first start of the season and his only action was 2 preseason games where he wasn’t very impressive. He was a dynamic playmaker in college for Oregon last year and was also a Heisman hopeful. He brings an elusive running game, but I am not expecting much from the kid in his first start against the Ravens.

The over under is set extremely low at 35.5. All signs point to this game and the under, but with Polamalu and Suggs out, that may open up some scoring opportunities. Dixon is also capable of breaking open a run as well. You can also expect the Steelers to call run after run and kill that clock.

I want to do a teaser here. I don’t think you take the Steelers at +14.5 due to the rookie factor against a very good defense on the road. I like the Ravens at -0.5, so you’re going to have to debate whether to tease the over/under to over 28.5 or under 42.5.

This could easily be a 16-13 game or this could be a 24-20 game, so the over/under is hard to forecast here, especially with Dixon as the Steelers QB. 28.5 is not a lot of points. The Ravens are averaging 23.7 PPG, but the Ravens last 4 games have all gone under 34 points. I think the Ravens can put up 20-24 points tonight, which means the Steelers will just need 9 for the over 28.5 to hit. 6/9 experts at Covers.com are taking the over.

Ed Reed will also be active. Against a rookie QB, think pick 6.

Tonight’s Play: 7-point teaser: Ravens -0.5, Over 28.5 (Confidence: 2/5)