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NFL Week 16 Picks Against the Spread

Posted by in NFL General on December 24th, 2009 | Comment »

Normally I would do the analysis on every NFL game, but I’m running short on time with Christmas coming up and there just aren’t many good spreads this week.

I hit 4/4 picks last night at THE ONETIMER for 6 units of profit and we’re back in the black in the NHL. Merry Christmas to you if you took down those picks!  My NHL mojo is coming back to me, but sometimes you get hot and sometimes you get cold in the NHL.  These days, I’m taking more games where I’m giving up the goal-and-a-half for better odds rather than laying down the extra cheddar on the moneyline and I’ve been hitting those picks.

Here is what I like in the NFL this week:

1.) PHILADELPHIA -7 over Denver — Denver is a bit of a fraud.  They were killed by the Colts despite Brandon Marshall’s 21 receptions, 200 yards, and 2 TDs, and they just lost home to the RAIDERS.  If you lose at home to the Raiders, you are a pretender, not a contender.  Yes, the Eagles also lost to the Raiders, but that was in the beginning of the season, and that was when they were on the road I and I said “watch out since the Eagles sometimes play awful when they travel out west.”  The Eagles have won 5 in a row now and there’s no reason for them not to make it 6.  They’re hot right now and no team plays better December football than the Eagles.  The return of Brian Dawkins will be an emotional moment for me.  I, of course, am a diehard Eagles fan, so of course I’m picking them.

2.) COLTS -3 over Jets (1st Half Line) — Expect the Colts to dominate the Jets when their starters are in there for the first half.  I think you stick to the 1st half line since Peyton may be pulled in the 2nd half and that could allow the Jets to get back in there in the 2nd half and potentially cover with the 5.5 points.

3.) Dallas -6.5 over REDSKINS — After seeing the Redskins heartless performance last week, I don’t see how anyone can think the Redskins rebound after that one.  But sometimes crazy things happen in the world of sports.  Like calling the worst trick play that ever existed twice in a row.

4.) BROWNS -3 over Raiders — After seeing the Browns beat the Steelers, I rode their coat tails with a win over the Chiefs and I think they can beat the Raiders at home.  Their D plays better at home and Joshua Cribbs is has been Filthy McNasty.

5.) Vikings -7 over BEARS — The Bears are horrendous.  I thought last week could be a spot where you could take the points and get a chance for the cover.  I didn’t take the game, but that was my pick for the game.  They just got killed by the Ravens.  Their team is in disarray.  The Vikings should rebound after last week’s loss.  They need this one to secure that first-round bye. We typically like home teams on Monday night, but that kept me out of last week’s play on the Giants even though I loved the Giants. I didn’t want to bet against the home dog since the week before, the Cardinals got dogged by the 49ers on Monday Night.  The Bears, like the Redskins, should be a team you’re safe betting against in prime-time games.  I’ll also be a big Bears fan on Monday Night with the hopes that the Eagles could steal away that first-round bye.

6.) Jacksonville +8 over PATRIOTS — I had to find a game that I like with the points for the hell of picking out a game where I like the points.  I just think the Jaguars match up well with the Patriots and this should be a fairly tight game with not many scores like the Bills vs. Patriots game from last week.  Pats have been committing to the run lately and that’s been eating clock. Jags should be able to move the ball well on the ground as well.  I never like betting on the Jaguars and by no means is this my stamp of approval to take them, but this is kind of like a random call just for the hell of making it.  Patriots win, Jags cover.  24-17.

Games to Avoid: I want to take Chargers +3 over Tennessee, but that one gets passed on due to the Chargers having to play on the road on Christmas.  I don’t like that combo.  Remember the Giants on Turkey Day?  Horrendous.  Dolphins/Texans and Steelers/Ravens are toss ups.

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