Notre Dame vs. Purdue Preview, Prediction, Pick Against the Spread

Keep your eyes on WR Michael Floyd in this game.

PURDUE BOILERMAKERS @ NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (-10.5)

Scanning through the week 1 college lines, Purdue at +10.5 caught my eye. Although Purdue had a losing record at 5-7, they were a competitive team, losing to Oregon by 2 points, Notre Dame by 3, and Michigan State by 3. Purdue was probably best known for upsetting Ohio State 26-18. They knew how to fight in games against the top competition, which is why I was tempted to take the points here. I also figured that Notre Dame may be facing a major set back with the losses of QB Jimmy Clausen and WR Golden Tate.

Unfortunately for Purdue, the injury bug has hurt the Boilermakers this past spring. Their star RB Ralph Bolden, who finished 3rd in the Big Ten in rushing, tore a ligament in his knee and may miss the entire season. Purdue’s QB Robert Marve, who was recruited by Miami, but left when he wasn’t chosen as Miami’s starter, will be the new face of the team and will have a talented receiver in WR Keith Smith (91 receptions, 1100 yards last season) to throw to.  Marve isn’t anything to write home about though: he threw more INTs (13) than TDs (9) last season at Miami. Purdue had a solid secondary last year, giving up just 203 yards per game, but they’ll have to deal with replacing 4 starters in that group, a tremendous challenge for any defensive coordinator.

Notre Dame will be led by junior QB Dayne Crist. Crist is a physical specimen at 6’4″, 235 pounds, but inexperienced (just 10 completions in 20 attempts in his collegiate career) and he’s coming off a torn ACL. Keep your eye on WR Michael Floyd this season, he should have another jaw-dropping season. The kid had 795 yards while missing 5 games last season. Floyd opened the season with 189 yards against Nevada and followed that up with 131 yards against Michigan. Floyd had 100+ yards in 5 of his 7 games last season. RB Armando Allen should also be another bright spot on this team. If there was one flaw that Notre Dame had last season, it was their defense, which gave up 397 yards per game last season. With 10 starters returning from last season, that squad can only improve on their horrific 2009 season. It’s not like Purdue’s offense is much to worry about.

With Purdue’s top RB out this game, taking the points isn’t so enticing. Along with replacing an entire secondary against Notre Dame’s spread offense, Purdue may end up getting beaten pretty badly opening day. However, I’m not quite ready to hand over starting the game down 10.5 points to an unproven quarterback. Both teams have outstanding receivers, but Notre Dame has the running game necessary to maintain a balanced attack throughout this game.

Notre Dame should cover this one. I’m not expecting a lot of scoring in this one so a teaser of Irish -4.5 and the under may also be another potential play.

Prediction: Notre Dame 24 – Purdue 10

Pick Against the Spread: Notre Dame -10.5 (Confidence: 2/5)

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Michael Floyd 2008 Freshmen Highlights