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SMART BET Week 5 College Football

Posted by in College Football Picks on October 1st, 2010 | Comment »

Last week was tough as I started the day 3-0 and then finished 0-3 with my top play dropping the ball, literally 4x in the 4th quarter. Now down 3.8 units on the year, but it is still early in the year. This weekend I am coming with Top 2 Plays of the Year.

PLAY OF THE YEAR #1: UTEP (-14.5) vs. New Mexico for 2 UNITS: WINNER

Last week everyone I knew was all over UTEP vs Memphis and they simply did not bring it barely winning. However, New Mexico  is a totally different team then Memphis and I expect a 4 touchdown blowout on Saturday by UTEP. Looking at the numbers, UTEP has a clear advantage both offensively and defensively. UTEP rushes for 175yds per contest, while NM gives up over 220yds per contest. Once UTEP has established the run, which they clearly will, the passing game will open wide up.  UTEP is passing for almost 250yds per contest while NM has not been able to even slow down any passing game they have faced giving up just under 300yds per.  Defensively, while not great, UTEP has been solid against the run and pass, but more importantly NM has not been able to produce any form of offense only scoring an avg of 10pts per contest. UTEP comes ready to play this weekend and wins going away 42-17.

ARIZONA ST (+3.5) vs Oregon State for 2 units. WINNER

AzSt has been very impressive so far this year losing narrowly to both Wisconsin and Oregon. Even though they were predicted to finish 9th in the PAC10 they are clearly better than that this year. OSt has faced a brutal schedule so far this year already playing tough affairs verse TCU and Boise State. AzSt statistically has an advantage on offense and defense and I see this a great game for them to win outright. Tough spot for OSt returning home after playing a tough gam verse Boise St, they may not be mentally ready for this tough challenge. AzSt wins 31-21.

Miami-FL vs Clemson (+3) for 2 units. LOSER

If you are dog player like myself this is an absolute must bet. Several key underdog betting factors apply: (1) At home dog, (2) coming off a bye week, (3) vs an opponent playing 3rd consecutive road game, and (4) vs an opponent in a look ahead spot (Miami plays vs Florida State next week).

Other Leans:

Vanderbilt vs UCONN (-7.5)

Wisconsin (-1.5) vs MSU

Temple vs Army (+6.5)

Marshall vs So. Miss (-9)

Stanford (+7) vs Oregon

Good Luck.

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