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Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots Prediction and Pick Against the Spread

Posted by in NFL Picks on October 4th, 2010 | Comment »
Patriots vs. Dolphins Pick

Look for Brandon Marshall, Davone Bess, and Brian Hartline to make the Pats secondary look like it's amateur hour.

Yesterday The Kid picked the Giants (-3.5) as a winner and delivered. Somebody woke the sleeping Giants yesterday since the Giants were horrendous in their last two games. Vegas knew this would happen which is why the line clearly showed confidence in the Giants, which I pointed out in, and that’s the reason I stayed away from the Bears despite picking them myself. Being an Eagles fan, I tend to be bias when it comes to the Giants, Redskins, and Cowboys, and that’s something I cannot shake. I figured that if Julius Peppers pressured Eli enough, he would have a horrendous game. Sometimes you need to pick games situationally rather than rely on past performance as yesterday was a “must win” game for the Gmen and they delivered for their fans.


Tonight we have a home dog in the Miami Dolphins and a dubious line at Patriots (-1) begging everyone to take the Patriots. I picked the Dolphins at home on Sunday Night against the Jets last week and I paid for that one. The Monday Night factor is bigger than the Sunday Night factor and the Pats have some holes in their defense that they have to worry about, unlike the Jets, which is why I’m more confident in Miami this week.

This should be a great game. The over/under set at 48 seems interesting and I’m leaning over. I’m expecting both sides to put up a lot of points as this one has “potential shootout” written all over it. You know Tom Brady is going to show up and throw a couple TDs. You know that the Dolphins will be able to score with Ronnie Brown and Brandon Marshall. I think both teams are capable of scoring 24+ and possibly get into the 30’s, so I like the over 48 here. It’s not a lock though since it’s a high number and a 24-20 ending would not leave be dumbfounded.

I like the Dolphins here because the Pats secondary has problems. Patriots CB Darius Butler was benched in favor of second year undrafted free agent Kyle Arrington from Hofstra, who will have to cover Brandon Marshall, Davone Bess, or Brian Hartline. Good luck with that. We saw how the Pats secondary struggled when the Bills put up 30 total points (23 via offensive production; 7 via kickoff return) with Ryan Fitzpatrick as their QB. The Jets also had their way with the Patriots with Mark Sanchez absolutely destroying them.

I think you see the Pats secondary be the Achilles heel of this team again tonight. Pats are ranked 28th against the pass. I’ll stick with the home dog and take the Dolphins at home on Monday Night. I’m also expecting the Pats to keep it tight matching whatever points the Dolphins are able to come up with thanks to Tom Brady. Tom Brady can always win games himself, so you have to be cautious, but I’m going to lean Dolphins here.

Prediction: Dolphins 27 – Patriots 24

Pick Against the Spread: Dolphins +1 (Confidence: 2/5); Over 48 (Confidence: 3/5)

Tonight’s Teaser: Dolphins +8, Over 41 (Confidence: 4/5)

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