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NFL Week 7 Picks Against the Spread

Posted by in NFL Picks on October 22nd, 2011 | Comment »

In the last three weeks we’ve posted a 6-4 ATS record for posted picks. I hit on my top play in the Oakland Raiders (-6.5) over the Cleveland Browns, but I fell victim to two upsets in the Bucs over the Saints and 49ers over Lions. In the pick ’em league, I did much better, scoring an 8-5 ATS record and moving up in the standings. The Bears and Jets were easy hits, so hopefully you played the the Sunday and Monday night games and made some easy coin.

After taking a quick scan at the week 7 lineup, there’s not much that I like. Most of these games I see as toss ups (Ex: Chargers @ Jets, Seahawks @ Browns, Falcons @ Lions, Redskins @ Panthers, Bears @ Bucs, Broncos @ Dolphins, Texans @ Titans).

We’re left picking from Steelers (-3.5) @ Cardinals, Packers (-9) @ Vikings, Colts @ Saints (-14). I’m not going to lay 14 to take the Saints, so we’re pretty much down to Steelers and and the Packers. Might as well stick to the two best teams playing this week.


It doesn’t matter if the Packers are playing at home or on the road, they are just dominating the NFL right now and easily looking like the NFL’s best team. They’re also 5-1 ATS this year. Green Bay destroyed the Vikings on the road last year 31-3. The Vikings will have to rely on their newly-named starter Christian Ponder to get something going for this struggling Vikings offense. Ponder will be making his first NFL career start and he didn’t fare too well against the Bears last week. The Bears limited the Vikings to 10 points while the Bears put up 39 points. Although the Vikings had an impressive home win over the Cardinals, we’re talking about the Cardinals, not the Packers and their league-leading 32.8 PPG and 7th-ranked defense in terms of points allowed. Aaron Rodgers has an average QB rating of 122.4, has already thrown 17 TDs this season, and completes 68.9% of his passes. I can’t help but think that we’ll see another rout over the Vikings this week as the Ponder-led Vikings go through some growing pains.

Prediction: Packers 31 – Vikings 13

Free Pick Against the Spread: Packers -9 (Confidence: 4/5)


I can’t help but take the Steelers in a road play where you don’t have to give up a lot of points. There is one potential trap here, which is Vegas seeing that the Cardinals are at home off the bye week with two weeks to prepare for the Steelers. The 1-4 Cardinals are having another disappointing season after losing four straight games. They just got demolished by the Vikings 34-10. Adrian Peterson put up 122 yards and 3 TDs. They’ve also lost to the Giants 31-27, Seahawks 13-10, and Redskins 22-21. It’s unfortunate that they’ve had a chance to win three of those games, but fell short. They’re a team still trying to find their identity. Now the Cardinals have to face the best defense in the NFL that gives up a mere 270 total yards per game and 157 passing yards per game. Arizona’s defense, on the other hand, has been giving up 377 yards per game, which is ranked 21st in the league. With Pittsburgh’s defense giving up an average of one less touchdown per game than the Cardinals, I think you’ll see them win this one by the same margin. The Cardinals have also given up a league-high 8 rushing TDs this year and surrender 119 rushing yards per game. Rashard Mendenhall is listed as probable for the game and looks to have a big game.

Prediction: Steelers 24 – Cardinals 17

Free Pick Against the Spread: Steelers -3.5 (Confidence: 4/5)

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