NCAA Smart Bet for Thursday, September 27, 2012

Stanford at Washington (+7): Much more of my analysis of games, after taking last year off, comes down to spot/situational plays. Tonight we have a perfect example of a great situational play. Stanford comes off a huge win over the Trojans, but do benefit from having 12 days to recover from that big win. However, I said in an earlier post that I don’t believe Stanford is that great of a football team and I am going to stick with that theory and play against them here. Stanford also plays their first road game of the year tonight in a hostile stadium on national TV. Besides the fact that Washington is playing at home with 12 days rest there are several other reasons to like them. First, this is a must win. If you look at their schedule, a defeat tonight could smell big trouble as they play at Oregon, home vs USC, at Arizona, home vs Oregon St, and at California. So look for Washington to come into this game really focused and prepared to make a statement. Second, this is the first PAC-10 conference game, so further motivation. Finally, I like their defense. They are weak against the run, but very good against the pass. If they can force a couple interceptions, Nunes is averaging one per game, then it could set the stage for a close finish. I will take the points here with Washington. PLAY ON WASHINGTON (+7) FOR 1 UNIT.