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SMART BET College Football Week 10

Posted by in College Football Picks on November 3rd, 2012 | Comment »

1. Penn State at Purdue (+3.5). Purdue comes off two tough losses. However this team is pretty fundamentally strong and it should be focused today.  The line for the game has slowly been coming down in favor of Purdue. Penn State still has many issues on both sides of the ball.  Ohio State took advantage of many of their weaknesses and Purdue could do the same. It remains tough to win on the road in the Big Ten. Purdue wins outright. Play on Purdue 2 units.

2. Kansas at Baylor (-17).  Kansas comes off a very emotional loss to Texas. They were leading with just seconds to play and Texas pulled out the dramatic comeback. If my memory serves me right Kansas has not won a conference game in quite a a while. Tough spot for Kansas now having to play on the road. Baylor has not played as well as of late but they clearly are the better team here. Baylor will pose many offensive problems for the Kansas defense. Baylor needs to take advantage early and the game could be over by halftime. Play on Baylor for 2 units.

3. Arizona at UCLA (-3). If you have been reading my write ups this year you probably could have expected me to play UCLA today. Arizona played the game of their lives last week and you can bet they were celebrating that big win all week. Overall I think this game should be pretty evenly matched. However this is purely a spot play against Arizona. Additionally  UCLA is playing great football right now and will be very aggressive in their game plan. Play on UCLA for 1 unit.

4. New Mexico vs. UNLV (-3.5). I know that these two …

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SMART BET College Football Week 9

Posted by in College Football on October 26th, 2012 | Comment »

Week 9 shapes up with a lot of interesting plays. Making my first lock of the year bet and several other solid plays.

SMART BET LOCK: BYU vs GEORGIA TECH UNDER 50.5. Several reasons to love this play. First, BYU travels cross country for the second time in as many weeks, which should hurt their overall level of play. Second, BYU’s offensive line is really beat up after several key injuries continue to mount against them, Including the key loss of their center. Thridly, BYU’s strongest asset, their Defense I believe ranked 6th in country against the run, will square off against the one dimensional rushing attack of GT. Finally, this is a meaningless game for both teams, so a good reason they could come out completely flat. This is also GT’s break from the ACC schedule so there really isn’t a lot for them to get excited about here. I love the under here for a strong 2 unit play.

Ohio State (PK) over Penn State: Admittedly, PSU has played better than anyone really expected. You have to respect the effort and coaching of this team. To me though, there are way to many flaws in the PSU line-up when compared straight-up against OSU. OSU cannot be happy with the way they played the last couple of weeks. I expect a really focused squad here on the road. I still believe OSU has one goal and that is to go undefeated the rest of the way. Honestly, I don’t see anyone on the rest of their schedule that can beat them. I am calling for a blowout by early thrid quarter. PLAY ON OHIO STATE for 2 units.

Florida at GEORGIA (+6.5): Admittedly, Florida has looked progressively better with …

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SMART BET College Football Week 7

Posted by in College Football Picks on October 12th, 2012 | Comment »

College Football Week 7 Picks Against the SpreadSome quick week 7 college football picks against the spread as I’m ready to jet out of here. Updates to picks may follow.

1. Ohio State (-17) over INDIANA: Indiana is coming off a tough loss to Michigan State. Indiana played as good as they possibly could that game, but fell short. After taking a 27-14 lead into the half, they failed to score a single point in the 2nd half and lost 31-27. I think you see Ohio State come in here and crush Indiana as last week’s tough loss sets up a hangover game for Indiana where I see them coming out flat. Ohio State is coming off a 63-28 win over Nebraska and is rolling right now.

2. Alabama (-21) over MISSOURI: With all of the injuries to Missouri, especially to their QB James Franklin, Alabama looks like the play.

3.  Syracuse (+7.5) over RUTGERS: Good value play as Syracuse is a better football team than their record indicates and Rutgers is a bit overrated.

4. PITTSBURGH (+3) over Lousiville: This is the third straight road game for Louisville, but at least they’re coming off a bye week. It’s tough for any team to win three straight road games, so I see this as a good spot to take Pittsburgh with the 3 points. Pitt has won the last 4 matchups against Louisville.

5. NOTRE DAME (-7) over Stanford : I’m going to keep riding Notre Dame until proven otherwise. They’re 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS, and they have the best defense in college football. They’ve made me good money this year.…

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SMART BET College Football Week 6

Posted by in College Football Picks on October 5th, 2012 | Comment »

Week 6 Picks:

1. Utah State (+6.5) vs. BYU: I am just not convinced by the play of BYU so far this year. USt is 5-0 ats so far this year and has been very competitive in every game. Further, this an in-state rivarly game that should bring the best out of USt. USt has one of the best defenses in the country so far this year. BYU is starting a freshman QB tonight, who has actually faired better with the offense so far this year than their regular starter. However, I still think both teams stick to the running game as the primary source of offense. I just think USt is the better team right now and I will take the points here. Play on USt +6.5 for 1 unit. BYU 6 Utah State 3 winner

2. Vanderbilt at MISSOURI (-7): I think Missouri is finally on the right track and are set for a big blowout win. I know most bettors don’t like the term “due,” but Missouri is due. They have talent, have been injured, but are getting healthier each week. I think they had a huge win over UCF last week as they were in a very difficult spot to come away with a win. Their QB is starting to get healthier each week. On the other hand, this is a tough spot for Vandy, a team I believe is on the ropes. Vandy has not scored more than 13 points against any Division 1 school so far this year. Vandy is playing their second road game in as many weeks and have to be beat up after last week’s game against Georgia. I just think this is great spot for Missouri to come out and …

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SMART BET NCCAF for Saturday, September 29, 2012

Posted by in College Football Picks on September 28th, 2012 | Comment »

Solid start to the week with a winner on Thursday with Washington. Hopefully, we can turn that positive momentum into a winning weekend.

CLEMSON (-7) vs. Boston College: I have recently made several posts about situational plays and at first glance you may think I would lean BC here as Clemson comes off the tough loss to FSU. However, I think we have an overreaction here against Clemson. Yes, Clemson is coming off a tough loss verse FSU, but Clemson was a 15 point underdog so winning outright was probably out of reach anyways. I am sure Clemson was disappointed with the loss, but not devastated as some teams may be. More importantly though, you cannot deny the talent mismatch on the field in this ACC battle. BC doesn’t even have a decent loss yet. They get beat at home verse Miami, who is weak at best, and then lost last week on the road at Northwestern, clearly the 5th or 6th best team in the Big 10. BC’s lone win comes against Maine, half the teams in the Lingerie Football League could beat them (OK maybe not, but you get my point). I think there are too many mismatches on both sides of the ball. So long as Clemson comes with some general incentive to win this game they should easily cover this spread.  PLAY ON CLEMSON (-7) for 1 unit.

Arizona St at California (+2). Situational play with Cal here. Type this game into google and the one continual theme is that Cal is in a must win position. I hate when people say that, but Cal does need to win here or a bowl game may be out of reach. Overall Cal has played ok. I think …

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NCAA Smart Bet for Thursday, September 27, 2012

Posted by in College Football Picks on September 27th, 2012 | Comment »

Stanford at Washington (+7): Much more of my analysis of games, after taking last year off, comes down to spot/situational plays. Tonight we have a perfect example of a great situational play. Stanford comes off a huge win over the Trojans, but do benefit from having 12 days to recover from that big win. However, I said in an earlier post that I don’t believe Stanford is that great of a football team and I am going to stick with that theory and play against them here. Stanford also plays their first road game of the year tonight in a hostile stadium on national TV. Besides the fact that Washington is playing at home with 12 days rest there are several other reasons to like them. First, this is a must win. If you look at their schedule, a defeat tonight could smell big trouble as they play at Oregon, home vs USC, at Arizona, home vs Oregon St, and at California. So look for Washington to come into this game really focused and prepared to make a statement. Second, this is the first PAC-10 conference game, so further motivation. Finally, I like their defense. They are weak against the run, but very good against the pass. If they can force a couple interceptions, Nunes is averaging one per game, then it could set the stage for a close finish. I will take the points here with Washington. PLAY ON WASHINGTON (+7) FOR 1 UNIT.…

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Posted by in College Football Picks on September 22nd, 2012 | Comment »

TEMPLE (+7) at Penn State: I took a stand against PSU last week verse Navy and got crushed. At first I thought I would avoid this game, but after analyzing the game and the teams I decided to take a second stand against PSU. PSU has probably played about as well as anyone could have expected. Temple on the other hand has clearly under performed. PSU finally got their first win last week and therefore it is a potential let down spot, yes again, for them. Temple should be more than ready and focused for this in-state rivarly. So really what this comes down to for me is which team is more likely to play their best game and for me that is Temple. Stats for both teams in pretty much all offensive and defensive categories fall below average, but I think Temple can improve and should do so on Saturday. PLAY ON TEMPLE for 1 UNIT.

ARMY/WAKE FOREST OVER 55: The key to this game is obviously the offenses. The two defenses have combined to give up over a 150 points in just 5 games total. Army is terrible against the pass and should not be able to stay with the speed of WF. On the other side, WF is terrible against the run and we know Army is going to run the ball over 90% of the time. I think both teams have the ability to score in the low 30s, and it is possible if WF’s passing game gets going early they could score have a hundred themselves. BET 1 UNIT ON THE OVER 55.…

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