NFL Picks

Jets vs PITTSBURGH (-3.5) for 1 unit.

First off you have to give pretty big props for the Jets to even be in this game.  Winning on the road verse the Colts and the Patriots during the playoffs on back-to-back weeks is an impressive task by any football team.  However, there are several key reasons I believe the Jets come up short on Sunday in Pittsburgh.

(1) Lack of Motivation: I know it doesn’t take a whole lot to get these teams ready to play, but contrary to the previous two games the Jets have played the motivational edge leans towards Pittsburgh.  The flamboyant Jets had reason to trash talk and be highly motivated when going into Indianapolis two weeks ago as Indy had eliminated the Jets last year in the playoffs, so you knew they would be fired up to play in Indy.  The same motivation was there in New England where the Jets had already been blown out once this year; plus you add in all the trash talking that went on through the media and you knew the Jets were going to come to play.  However, this Sunday, the opposite is true. The Jets already beat Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh earlier this year and Rex seems to have a bit more respect for the Steelers and has kept his comments to a minimum so far this week.  Teams just don’t beat other NFL teams twice in the same year that often, especially when there is so much riding on the game (as evident by the Jets domination of the Patriots last week).  I just think the Jets need that in your face, high intensity, over the top motivation to play their best. Without that extra edge we …

Green Bay Packers @ New England Patriots

New England hasn’t been beaten at home in more than two years. Without Rodgers tonight, Green Bay really has no hope of winning this one outright. Cover the spread? Maybe. The Packers are simply a one-dimensional team and that won’t cut it tonight. The Packers don’t have a running game at all, and with Rodgers out tonight, their passing game seems hopeless also. I feel like this is a gimme game for New England, but they need to take

No Rodgers, No Chance

advantage so they can secure home-field throughout the playoffs. What might keep the Packers in this one is that they are only one game behind the Giants for the final wild card spot. In the Packers’ last two trips to New England they won 28-10 both times, but the last time they visited was 2002.

The Packers better pray that New England keeps turning it over. They’re going to need to be very successful on special teams. Without Rodgers tonight, I don’t see them putting up very many points unless it comes from the defense or special teams.

Prediction: Patriots 34 – Packers 17

Pick Against the Spread: New England (-14)…

I won’t be doing every game, instead just the games that I feel very confident about.

1:00 Games:

Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals

There is one thing that stands out to me in this game, and that is that Colt McCoy will be the starter for Cleveland. It just seems like they have so much more success with him back there at QB. Being a Cleveland fan myself, I was always a little nervous when Delhomme was the started simply because it seemed like he threw an interception every other play. The Bengals do have more talent than the Browns, but they have been just terrible this year. Cleveland is also coming off a horrible loss in Buffalo. I see an ugly game here with Cleveland winning by a small margin.

McCoy will be a big reason for the Browns winning today.

Prediction: Browns 23 – Bengals 17

Pick Against the Spread: Cleveland (+1)

Detroit Lions @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Can you believe Detroit beat Green Bay last week? I can’t. These two teams used to always play for the worst spot in the old NFL Central. This game means a lot more this year. With a Lions win, they eliminate Tampa Bay from any playoff hopes if they pull off the upset. Detroit has a terrible pass defense and which will allow Freeman to get his looks. I think Tampa’s run defense is worse though, and Detroit should be able to run all over the field. I see it going back and forth, but Detroit covering the spread.

Prediction: Lions 24 – Buccaneers 20

Pick Against the Spread: Detroit (+4.5)

Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys

These teams are just playing for pride now. The Cowboys have some players that …

San Francisco 49ers @ San Diego Chargers

Both of these teams are surprisingly one game out of their divisions, but this is why I think San Diego is going to cover this spread.

Chargers win big tonight

The Chargers haven’t been beaten once this year, actually they’ve only beaten themselves. It’s a repeated trend that has hurt them dramatically this season. Special teams mishaps, turnovers, and being one of the most penalized team in the NFL doesn’t help either. When they play while making smart decisions and taking care of the ball, they’re virtually impossible to beat. So as long as they don’t make stupid mistakes, they should roll in this one. The 49ers have only had one big road win this year and that was in Arizona against the Cardinals.

Don’t take the 49ers defense lightly though as they are coming off a game where they had a season-high four interceptions.

Rivers has been playing like he should win the MVP this year, while Smith might be in jeopardy of losing his starting job. I see the Chargers getting up early and cruising rest of the way in this one. San Diego has beaten San Francisco in each of its last two meetings.

The Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games, 4-1 ATS in their last five as a favorite, and 11-4 in their last 15 games in December.

Prediction: Chargers 31 – 49ers 10

Pick Against the Spread: San Diego -9.5…

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We’re finally back to posting normal updates for the games. Last night I posted my picks for the 1:00 games and now we’ll look to see what’s on the menu at 4:00.

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-9)

You are well aware that I’ve been riding the Saints since about week 8 on the theory that they would turn on the jets in the second half of the season. I was able to books wins on them with their wins over Carolina and Seattle ATS. However, despite winning their last two games, they just couldn’t get over the spread. They topped the Cowboys 30-27 on Thanksgiving. With the line at -4, it was a tough loss, especially since they jumped out to a 17-0 lead and took the game 20-6 into the half. The Cowboys battled back in the second half to get the cover. I then liked them against Cincinnati -6.5. Same story that game. Saints took a 13-6 lead into the half and jumped to a 20-12 lead after the 3rd until all hell broke loose in the 4th quarter and the game ended 34-30. The Rams have been a phonemal team to bet on this year and I have played them a few times over the last few weeks. Although they’re 7-5, they are a ridiculous 9-3 ATS. I like teams that are .750 ATS. The Saints have a losing record ATS at 5-7. I will take the points here, although the Saints will win this one at home. I say they win by 7 or 8. They’ll score a lot of points, but …

We’re nearing the end of the season as the cold weather hits us. Screw you Florida and California people. Apologies for the lack of full updates the past few weeks. If you were wondering why I’ve been MIA, there’s two reasons. I started a business recently which recently has “blown up” and I got engaged. Double whammy in such a short period of time. Things have been crazy work-wise but awesome. I’m going to do my best to produce a solid report. In order to break things up, I’ll post my 1:00 plays and try to get 4:00 done tomorrow. Looks like the Colts were an easy play tonight against a team on a 5-game losing streak. Let’s take a look at the Sunday games.

ATLANTA FALCONS (-7.5) @ CAROLINA PANTHERS

I’ve been riding the Falcons this season and very pleased with the results (8-4 ATS). I also love betting against the Panthers (3-9 ATS). I was about to write -9.5 as the spread without looking at the line. Therefore, some slight value in this play, especially if you can buy a half-point. Like all of the Panthers games, it should be a rout. 10-2 vs. 1-11 and just 7.5 points? Panthers season average is 12.8 PPG while their D gives up 25. With a line like this, you have to think, okay, whose injured? Tony Gonzalez is probable with a banged up ankle. No big deal (NBD). Falcons roll here.

Prediction: Falcons 31 – Panthers 13

Pick Against the Spread: Falcons -7.5 (Confidence: 4/5)

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-9)

I will take the points here if I have to choose the spread, but I like the teaser instead. Earlier in the season the Bengals won 27-21. Steelers were …

Been swamped this week.  Going to post quick picks. Some extra analysis may possibly be updated Saturday.

PHILADELPHIA (-8.5) over Houston — I’m an Eagles fan so I’m forced to pick them. Ridiculously high spread against a good offense, but Eagles offense should get clicking again against the Texans poor defense.

Washington (+7) over NEW YORK GIANTS — Division games are tough. Especially when Giants are missing their WRs (Smith and Nicks are out).

Jacksonville over TENNESSEE — First impression. Subject to change.

Cleveland (+4.5) over MIAMI — Miami rebounds against Oakland after getting shut out by Bears. Have to stick with those Browns though! Not a high confidence play though.

Chicago (-4.5) over DETROIT — Chicago’s D is legit!

KANSAS CITY (-9.5) over Denver — Wow, Kansas City is for real? Too many points to take.

GREEN BAY (-9.5) over San Fransisco — Too many points for me to take, but I have to stick with the Pack at home.

MINNESOTA (-5.5) over Buffalo — Now that the Vikings got a W, they should be able to beat the Bills at home though, right? Bills took the Steelers to OT after killing the Bengals. What is going on?

New Orleans (-6.5) over CINCINNATI — This is one of my favorite plays this week.  Like I’ve been saying, New Orleans will get hot in the 2nd half of the season.

SAN DIEGO (-13) over Oakland — Oakland is in a funk again and San Diego’s offense has been clicking. Chargers need to keep pace with the Chiefs who have an easy game at home.

SEATTLE (-6) over Panthers — I love betting against the Panthers, so this game looks like it could be a taker.

INDIANAPOLIS (-5) over Dallas — …