NFL Picks

Saints/Vikings Reaction:

Wow! Monday Night Football has been crazy this year to say the least. This has to be right up there with the Eagles/Cowboys game in week 2. Unfortunately, everyone is feeling sorry for the Saints. They deserved to win that one badly and really, the score could have been 38-10 if about 3 plays just went their way and the refs weren’t against them. Um, is it time to fire Ed Hocules yet? At least try to give the Saints a make up call after that blown face mask by giving them the ball after the Adrian Peterson fumble, which it was, instead of the lousy top-of-the-hand/ball-gripping explanation. Add Ed Hocules to the list of people that I would want Kimbo Slice to punch in the face. Come to think of it, I would put my money on Hocules the way Kimbo went down last week.

Luckily, I won my teaser by a point. With the Saints +4 and over 39.5, it worked out perfectly except having to be nervous down 20-10 at the half. The Monday and Sunday Night teasers continue to be working out perfectly. In fact, the Monday Night over may be the play to make every week at this pace: the over is now an unbelievable 6-0 ATS on Monday Night’s this season. That’s unprecedented. Monday Night has treated us to some very good games this year and has made my Monday Night picks 5-1.

Thank you Mr. Reggie Bush.

Week 6 NFL Spreads Forecast:

As I’m looking forward to next week, the Giants -9 over the Browns is looking appealing. The Browns are pretty awful on both sides of the ball and the Giants are playing like the defending Super Bowl …

Thanks to the Sunday Night teaser and the Chicago game, it put me in the black despite a huge Chargers let down and now it’s time for Monday Night Football. Tonight, we have the Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints. The Saints are 3-point favorites and the over/under is set at 46.5. So far, the Saints are 3-0-1 on the over and the Vikings are 2-2 on the over. Most people think the over is the play to make, but the Saints won’t keep putting up 30+ points every game, especially not against a defense like the Vikings, but so far the Vikings haven’t been overly impressive. Everyone thought the Vikings would rack up sacks with Jared Allen on that line, but he’s only had 2 sacks this year. Their team has only had 7 sacks this year (ranked 23rd) and Drew Brees has only been sacked 4 times this year. The Vikings are allowing 20.5 PPG and the Saints are allowing 25 PPG. The Saint’s 27.8 PPG is 7th in the league compared to the Vikings 17.8 PPG (ranked 23rd). The Vikings have managed only 2 INTs to the Saints 4.

The Saints have a lot of injuries on their defense, the key injury being to 1st-round pick DT Sedrick Ellis. That loss means the team is without their two starting DTs. The Saints are already 27th in yards allowed, 19th against the run (allowing 123 YPG), and 29th against the pass (allowing 250 YPG). What they lack in defense, they’ve made up in offense, but can they keep passing against a team that is 7th in yards allowed and a team that allows just 207 YPG passing (ranked 16th)? The Vikings are also 3rd against the run, allowing …

Apparently lightning could strike twice for the Dolphins, and it was against the Chargers of all teams. The Chargers just didn’t show up for that game at all. They looked like they were just going through the motions so they could get it over with. I didn’t see any of their 22 starters show up to play football. They plainly got beat by Miami. I couldn’t believe it. It looks like the Chargers aren’t that strong. At least the Bears came through for me and won the game in dominating fashion. I just wish I had the amounts of those bets the other way around.

Tonight I want to get some back and I don’t like the spread, which makes a teaser appealing. These Steelers/Jaguars games are usually tight and neither team usually loses by more than 10 (the point differential in these teams last 6 games: 2, 7, 9, 6, 1, 2), which is why I’m in favor of teasing the +5.5 Steelers to Steelers +12.5. I am hoping the spread may jump to -6, so I could take 13 points. The over/under is currently 37.5. I can see the final being right on target: 17-20, so teasing the over/under up or down should be safe either way you do it. Both teams have strong run defenses and the passing offense for both teams is pretty suspect. I could see a lot of punts in this one, but Santonio Holmes or MJD are always capable of breaking one. I think giving the Steelers double-digit points is safe despite being on the road. I think they have a better chance of covering the 5.5 than the Jaguars. You obviously have to be concerned about the lack of Steelers running backs, …

This week is a tough one in the NFL. There will be a lot of tight games. I wanted to come out and find a solid home team to take, but I didn’t really like any of the home favorites. The Saints are a 3-point favorite against the Vikings, but I’m worried about that banged up Saints defense against Adrian Peterson. The Panthers spread is too high for me and I still have the Chiefs win over the Broncos fresh in my head. I’m not about to test the 49ers over the Pats or Texans over the Colts. The Cardinals lost Anquan Bolden, so I’ll stay away from them. I’m not sold on the Giants covering against the Seahawks without Plaxico Burress. The Jaguars may be a good home team to take, but I don’t like their chances against a tough Pittsburgh defense. The Ravens/Titans is too close to call. After eliminating those games, the two that I like the most are the San Diego Chargers -6.5 and Chicago Bears -3.5 over the Lions.

My big game of the week is the Chargers -6.5 over the Miami Dolphins, which I put 10 units on. I am a little nervous after I saw 2/5 of ESPN’s panel pick the Dolphins, but 9/10 picked the Chargers on this expert panel. Everyone has the New England game fresh in their mind. Let’s set a few things straight. Matt Cassel is not Philip Rivers and the carousel of mediocre backs (LaMont Jordan, Sammy Morris, and Kevin Faulk) that New England has are not LaDanian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles. Phillip Rivers has the 2nd highest passer rating in the league and Matt Cassel is 15th. Rivers has 10 TD passes, Cassel has 2. Rivers …

Overall, I have not had a very good read on the NFL so far this year, but there are few games I like this weekend.

1. Tennessee @ Baltimore (+3): There is no arguing that Tennessee has been great so far this year. Their defense has been strong allowing less than a 100 yards rushing per game and less than 300 overall. Kerry Collins has looked like the leader he once was when playing for Penn State. However, they are not going to win them all. This weekend they take on arguably the best defense in football. The Raven’s D is allowing less than 70 yards rushing per game and only 117 yards passing, that is simply sick. Flacco is doing the one thing he is suppose to be doing, not losing the game. If he continues to make good decisions, play within his ability, and not hold onto the ball for too long in the pocket, then the Ravens will be in a great position to win this game. (Rating +4) Baltimore was in control for most of the game, but the 4th quarter belonged to the Titans. The Titans scored 10 points in the 4th quarter for the win, however we had to settle for the push. Titans 13 Bal. 10.

2. Minnesota at New Orleans (-3): I am playing this game based primarily on Minnesota’s inability to put things together so far this year, especially on the road. They are 0-2 ats and 0-2 su on the road so far this year. The Saints haven’t been great, but are 2-0 ats and 2-0 su at home so far this year. The Saints seem to play inspired ball when playing at home. I think this game comes down …

CLICK HERE FOR 2009 NFL WEEK 5 PREDICTIONS AND PICKS AGAINST THE SPREAD (THIS IS THE 2008 VERSION)

I’m still thinking about what games I want to take. There are a few spreads that I like, but I still have to think about them and narrow it down. Stay tuned for my actual picks later (probably Sunday morning). I want to limit my picks to home teams since that was the trend last week (home teams were 9-4). Right now, my favorite two games are the Chargers -6.5 over the Dolphins and Bears -3.5 over Detroit (I actually like the teaser of Bears +3.5 and over 37.5 in that game, see below), but they’re two road teams. The Saints, Buccaneers, and Bills are also on my radar, but they’re also road teams.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -3 @ HOUSTON TEXANS

DO NOT TAKE THE COLTS! I’m not saying the Texans are necessarily a lock, but I would be very concerned about the Colts run defense without Bob Sanders. If I’m a Steve Slaton fantasy owner, I’m loving this matchup because he could easily get about 20 points this game. The Texans always play hard against the Colts in Houston. The Texans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games. The last two times the Colts played the Texans in Houston, the Colts won last game 30-24 (Colts didn’t cover the 6.5 spread) and Texans upset the Colts in the game before that 27-24 as a 9-point underdog. I would say that this game has upset alert written all over it, but I never want to bet against Peyton Manning tearing it up though.

Prediction — Texans 27 – Colts 24

Pick Against the Spread: Texans +3 — Confidence 2/5
Pick Straight …

The Bills came through for me and beat the Rams 31-14. I was getting nervous when they were down 14-6, but they pulled through. As long as I hit that game, I was in good shape. I had 9 units on them since I bought a point to make it an even 7-point spread and that game and it earned me 7 units. The Broncos let me down again in what’s becoming an all too familiar story. I’m going to have to make a pledge to never bet on or against the Broncos because no matter which I side I take, then end up screwing me every time. I took their spread against the Chiefs and had them in my teaser card, but they lost the game. They turned the ball over 4 times and allowed Larry Johnson to run all over them. You just can’t do that.

Then the Eagles really ruined my day. Not only are they my team, but I had a lot of money riding on them and I was more than confident that they would win. They were 1 foot away from winning that game. 1 foot. Football is truly a game of inches. That game made me sick to my stomach. A muffed punt that led to a Chicago touchdown, 2 missed field goals, and being unable to get into the endzone twice after having a 1st down within the 5 yard line. It was a bad day to be an Eagles fan. You end up thinking nothing but what ifs for the next week: what if they had Westbrook that game, what if DeSean hadn’t fumbled that punt, what if McNabb wouldn’t have tripped at the goal line forcing the Eagles to settle …