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NFL Week 5 Predictions, Picks Against the Spread

Posted by in NFL Picks on October 8th, 2009 | 58 Comments

Last week we added some coin to our position with the Giants over the Chiefs as our “game of the week,” but lost a little on the Bengals who beat the Browns, but didn’t cover the number.  After looking at the spreads this week, they are pretty tough, but let’s try to sort these out.

This could be the toughest week so far this year.  I usually like to exploit weak teams like the Browns, Raiders, Chiefs, so that’s where my eye will be this week.  Let’s take a look at the NFL week 5 spreads.  You have to be very cautious betting against home underdogs.  It worked last week with the Chiefs, but the Browns, Broncos, and Dolphins all covered as home dogs and 2 won outright.

I also wanted to point out that there is a NEW POLL, so go ahead and vote!

MINNESOTA VIKINGS -10 @ ST. LOUIS RAMS

How could you not like the Vikings here?  They are 4-0 with the NFL’s greatest running back, being led down the field by Brett Favre, and have a tremendous defense with sack-master Jared Allen to boot. The Rams are pathetic and are averaging 6.0 points-per-game (PPG) — a league worst.  Odds are the Rams don’t even score.  They have been shut out twice this year by the Packers and Seahawks and the Vikings D is better than both squads.

The Vikings will likely pile on the points.  I expect a blowout. 35-0. 38-0.  This pick should be easy money.  The spread is so low it has be thinking whether it’s a “trap game.”   A trap game against the Rams?  No way.  I thought the Vikings/Browns game was a trap game and I cashed in on the Vikings domination.

This spread should easily be more like Vikings -14.5 to -17.  I just don’t see how the Rams will be able to score… at all!  And if they do get on the board, it will be under 13 points.  I’m sure the Vikings can put up more than 23 points against this awful team.  I would take this spread even if Adrian Peterson was out (and he’s not, by the way).  After a news search, I was freaked out when I saw Adrian Peterson out 2-3 weeks with an MCL sprain — that was the BEARS Adrian Peterson though.  Maybe the books got confused and that’s why the spread is so low?

Prediction: Vikings 35 – Rams 0

Free Pick: Vikings -10 (Confidence: 5/5) (**PICK OF THE WEEK**) (W)

DALLAS COWBOYS -8.5 @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

After last week’s road loss to the Broncos, I’m not so sure about giving up 8.5 against the Chiefs.  The Chiefs are pretty awful and were killed by the Giants, so you should expect them to be killed by the Cowboys.  Tony Romo just looks awful this year and is easily the most overrated QB in the NFL.  Despite my hatred for the Cowboys since I’m an Eagles fan, this should be another domination of the Chiefs.  The Chiefs showed twice that they can’t hang with the NFC East with huge losses to the Giants and Cowboys

Prediction: Cowboys 27 – Chiefs 13

Free Pick: Cowboys -8.5 (Confidence: 3/5) (L)

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS -3.5

The Redskins offense BLOWS.  Just BLOWS.  They lost to the Lions, couldn’t score a TD against the Rams, and almost lost to the Bucs at home!  The Panthers are really bad too — winless on the year, but they’re not as bad as their record indicates.  They defensive numbers are lousy, but they’re not as bad as the numbers say and they’ve had to face the Eagles, Falcons, and Cowboys.  The key to me in this game is the Panthers are AT HOME OFF THE BYE WEEK.  They’ve had 2 weeks to prepare for the Redskins and there is not much to prepare for.  I think the Panthers win this one by 7.  The Skins D will keep it close, but the Redskins offense will fail to show up yet again.  I would love the line at -3, but less confidence at -3.5 since this game could be determined by a FG, so beware.

Prediction: Panthers 20 – Redskins 13

Free Pick: Panthers -3.5 (Confidence: 3/5) (L)

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -15

The Eagles are at home off a bye week and have McNabb and Westbrook healthy again.  The Eagles rookie squad (Kolb, McCoy, Maclin, and DeSean) beat up the Chiefs 2 weeks ago and I don’t see why this shouldn’t be another domination.  The Bucs offense AND defense rank in the bottom of the league in every category.  25th in points allowed, 31st in yards allowed, 17th against the pass, 30th against the run, 28th in points scored, 27th in yards gained, 24th in passing yards, 23rd in rushing yards.

Eagles are scoring 31 PPG (2nd), averaging 383 yards-per-game (7th), ranked 2nd agaisnt the pass, and 3rd in yards allowed.  Looks pretty one-sided to me.  I’ll be attending this game in person and I anticipate a complete beat down.  Eagles D will beat down the Bucs rookie QB and the offense will make this game look like they’re playing a high school team.  You always have to be careful with high spreads, but this game is really one-sided.  I’m also 100% bias since I’m an Eagles fan.

Prediction: Eagles 34 – Bucs 6

Free Pick: Eagles -15 (Confidence: 4/5) (W)

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS -8.5

Another solid outing by the Ravens on the road against the Pats, but they didn’t have enough to top them off.  The Bengals nearly lost to the Browns on the road.  I’m getting mixed signals from the Bengals due to their Pittsburgh and Packers games.  I expected them to come out and dominate the Browns, but their defense let the Browns continue drives and put points on the board.  With the Ravens topped ranked run defense, the Bengals are forced to be a one-dimensional passing team and I don’t think they have enough weapons to get things done against the Ravens.  I’m not crazy with -8.5 on the Ravens.  I think they win by 10, but a win by 7 and a Bengals cover is certainly possible.

Prediction: Ravens 27 – Bengals 17

Free Pick: Ravens -8.5 (Confidence: 3/5) (L)

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ NEW YORK GIANTS -14.5

JaMarcus Russell is the most pathetic QB in the NFL.  Is his passer rating out of the ‘teens yet?  Correction, it’s a 42 and he’s completing less than 40% of his passes.  It’s going to be hard for a team who can’t complete a pass for more than 4 yards to beat the #1 ranked pass defense.  The only thing before taking this game is Eli Manning.  Eli is questionable this game.  With a 100% Eli, I would be all over the Giants since the Raiders will likely not score a point and at least be held under 10, but with Eli ailing, I would research into this condition before jumping on the Giants.  I’ll provide picks assuming Eli plays and is at least 85%.

Prediction: Giants 27 – Raiders 3

Free Pick: Giants -14.5 (Confidence: 4/5) (W)

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ BUFFALO BILLS -6

Brandon likes the Bills and I think they should rebound after a dismal performance in Miami.  Miami has a top 5 run defense and if the Bills can’t run the ball, their offense will look horrendous.  Against a run defense that allows over 176 YPG and is ranked 31st in the league, I expect a healthy dose of Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson, which should allow the Bills offense to run on all cylanders.

The Browns were able to sustain drives led by Derek Anderson and their offense finally showed signs of life.  However, they’re without Braylon Edwards (traded to Jets) this week, but he wasn’t much of a factor last week as Anderson hooked up with Massaquoi several times in the game and Jerome Harrison ran the ball well.  I think you stick with the Bills at home, but the Browns are looking like a much better team behind Derek Anderson.

Prediction: Bills 24 – Browns 17

Free Pick: Bills -6 (Confidence: 2/5) (L)

PITTSBURGH STEELERS -10.5 @ DETROIT LIONS

The Lions are a completely different team home vs. away.  The Lions beat the Redskins at home, but against team with a much tougher defense and a much better offense, the Lions are no match for the Steelers.  This should be another domination similar to the Vikings beating of the Lions a few weeks ago.  The Steelers looked damn good against the Chargers and they’ll brush off those tough road losses to the Bears and Bengals and look to improve to 3-2 this week.

Prediction: Steelers 31 – Lions 13

Free Pick: Steelers -10.5 (Confidence: 3/5) (L)

ATLANTA FALCONS @ SAN FRANSISCO 49ERS -2.5

This is a tough, tough game to call.  I really like both teams this year.  The 49ers have been tremendously impressive despite a lack of a true passing game.  They do it playing defense and they’re playing D well.  I’m pretty sure that Frank Gore will be missing 1 more game before coming back, but Glenn Coffee has done a good job filling in for Gore.  The Falcons also have a bye week, so they should be well rested and ready to go in this one.  I am on the side of the Falcons in this one due to the extra rest and the lack of a 49ers passing game.  If you can get the Falcons at +3, I would take the FG, but I still think they win outright by 3-6.

Prediction: Falcons 20 – 49ers 17

Free Pick: Falcons +2.5 (Confidence: 3/5) (W)

HOUSTON TEXANS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS -5.5

With these two teams, I immediately though OVER, so I checked the over under and it’s set at 50.  That’s a 31-20 or 27-24 game.  The Cards are only averaging 19 PPG this year, but typically average 27 PPG, especially when they’re at home.  The Cards D is also allowing 22.7 PPG.  The Texans are averaging 23 points allowed and 23 points score per game.  The Houston D is ranked 25th though, allowing 368 yards of offense.  They’ve also beenin high-scoring games.  You can scratch off the Raiders game.  With games against the Jaguars and Titans, the scores were 24-31 (55 point) and 34-31 (65 points).  With Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald, touchdowns should be score often.   50 points is high, but I think about 54-57 should be score in this one.

Turning to the spread, I would lean with the Cardinals at home, but the Cardinals at 1-2 don’t give me much confidence especially after the beating the Colts game them.  One the plus side, the Cardinals are also at home off the bye week which is a huge advantage.  I would stay away from this spread in this game. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Texans win outright, but I would rather be on the side of the home team off the bye week.

Prediction: Cardinals 27 – Texans 24

Free Pick: Over 50 (Confidence: 3/5) (L) (By 1 point)

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -3 @ DENVER BRONCOS

The Broncos are 4-0.  I’m stunned.  Kyle Orton just knows how to manage games and let his defense win for him, doesn’t he?  One of my top 5 picks last week was the Cowboys -3 since I wasn’t buying into the Broncos top-ranked D since they were horrible last year, but their new coach put together a solid defensive unit that shut down the Cowboys and held them to 10 points.  The Patriots are still clearly the better team and Tom Brady is getting better every week.  The Patriots should be in control of the ball throughout most of this game, which leads me believe that they’ll win this one.  I can’t see the Broncos moving to 5-0 by defeating the Patriots, but there’s something about Denver’s stadium that makes anything happen.

Prediction: Patriots 24 – Broncos 17

Free Pick: Patriots -3 (Confidence: 3/5) (L)

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -3.5 @ TENNESSEE TITANS

The Colts are just clicking on all cylanders and the Titans still can’t get it together.  The Titans are allowing 27 PPG (ranked 26th), are allowing 362 yards-per-game (ranked 22nd), and allowing 282 yards-per-game through the air (ranked 31st).  The Jags put up 37, the Jets put up 24, and the Texans put up 34 on the Titans.  With the Colts ranked 1st in yards allowed (414 YPG) and 1st in passing yards (330 yards-per-game), that bodes well for the Colts and they should dominate that matchup.  The Colts D is getting it done too.  They’re ranked 4th in points allowed and 13th in yards allowed.  I’m always worried that Chris “Stupid Fast” Johnson goes off at any time, but the Colts have a respectable run defense, which is ranked 16th and allowing just 100 yards-per-game.  The Titans always play the Colts tough, but I have to go with the Colts (4-0) over the Titans (0-4).  The road trip didn’t hold the Colts back when they had to face the Dolphins and Cardinals, so I’m not too worried about them going into Tennessee.  However, if you talk to Brandon, he may so go with the home dog at +3.5 on Sunday Night.

Prediction: Colts 27 – Titans 20

Free Pick: Colts -3.5 (Confidence: 3/5) (W)

NEW YORK JETS -2 @ MIAMI DOLPHINS

The Jets suffered their first loss of the year and the Saints finally made Mark Sanchez look like the rookie that he is.  Considering Sanchez directly handed the Saints 14 points via turnovers (a “pick six” and a fumble in the endzone that was recovered for a TD), the 24-10 loss doesn’t look too bad and the Jets could have had a chance to win that game.  The Jets have one of the best D’s in the leage, which ranks 3rd in points allowed and 4th in yards allowed.

Last week I had the Bills on the road at -2 in my top 5 since I figured with Henne in for Pennington, the Dolphins would be too one-dimensional to have a enough offense to beat the Bills.   I was wrong — dead wrong.  The Dolphins moved the ball at ease, but they will have a much tougher D this week.  Home dog, Monday night — Brandon likes those plays.  They work out sometimes, but my advise is to just pass on this game entirely.  If you’re looking to play it, take the under after teasing it 7 points from 36.5 to 43.5 and then add the points to the Dolphins +9 or Jets +5.  With these defenses, I wouldn’t anticipate many points.  I would be all over the over 9.5 punts if that was a legitimate prop to bet on.

Prediction: Jets 20 – Dolphins 17

Free Pick: Jets -2 (Confidence: 1/5) (L)

THE BOTTOM LINE – TOP 5 SPREADS (RANKED BY AWESOMENESS)

Sure, they’re all high spreads and it’s generally bad to take high spreads in the NFL, but it’s sometimes too easy to pick on the retards of the NFL, especially if they can’t score like the Rams and Raiders.

1.) Vikings -10 over RAMS (W)

2.) GIANTS -14.5 over Raiders (* If Eli Manning plays and is at least 85%) (W)

3.) EAGLES -15 over Buccaneers (* Pick is 100% bias.  I’m an Eagles fan who will be attending the game) (W)

4.) Steelers -10.5 over LIONS (L)

5.) PANTHERS -3.5 over Redskins (L), Colts -3.5 over TITANS (W), Patriots -3 over BRONCOS (L)

DISCLAIMER: These picks are for entertainment purposes only, don’t go “betting the farm” on any of them.  In fact, you may lose money, but of course, that’s not the goal here.



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