NFL Picks

So I decided to place my bets for Sunday. I guess I’ll take advantage of the “half the juice Fridays” at my sportsbook. I’m not too fond of this week, so I didn’t go overboard or anything.

If you want to read the full previews for the NFL week 3 games, follow that link and also be sure to check out our comments section and leave us a message.

My big game of the week is Denver Broncos -5 over the New Orleans Saints, which I put 8 units on (after the Pats flop to the Dolphins, I’m bumping it up from 6 to 8 on the Broncos — let’s go Cutler/Marshall/Royal). The Broncos offense is on fire and it will be even easier for them this week against a depleted New Orleans defense. The Saints lost their starting DT (Hollis Thomas) and LB (Mark Simoneau) for the rest of the year and LB Fujita and 3 of their starting DBs are playing banged up (all are listed day-to-day). As long as the Broncos defense could step up a little, they shouldn’t have a problem covering because it seems as if they’re scoring points at will. With Marques Colston out for the Saints, it makes the chances of that happening even better.

I also did a 7-unit teaser (to win 5 units) on New York Giants -6 over Cincinnati with New England Patriots -5.5 over Miami. The Bengals have been awful and they’re facing a defense that is 5th against the pass and great at getting pressure on the QB (3rd in sacks). The Bengals defense will also let the Giants score easily. I like this matchup a lot. In the second game on the teaser game, the Patriots …

CLICK HERE FOR 2009 NFL WEEK 3 PICKS AGAINST THE SPREAD (THIS WAS FOR 2008)

I keep saying it’s a tough week, but this is the toughest of the first 3 weeks of football. There aren’t too many games that I like. I think I may have to do a few teasers instead this week. I haven’t decided which games I want to take yet. I’ll have to keep thinking them over and wait until Sunday to place my bets. I can’t even pick out a few games that I want to put in the “Spreads to Take” category. You’ll have to review the games yourself and make the best decision.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ DENVER BRONCOS -5.5

The Saints have some defensive issues and that’s not going to bode well against a team that has averaged 40 PPG so far this year. The Saints also have a bunch of injuries in that defense: they’ve already lost LB Mark Simoneau and DT Hollis Thomas for the year, LB Scott Fujita is day-to-day, CB Randall Gay is day-to-day, CB Mike McKenzie is day-to-day and S Roman Harper is day-to-day. The Saint also have Marques Colston out to boot! I don’t see how any team will be able to contain the Broncos when 2 of their starting CBs, their starting SS, and one of their top LBs banged up. Jay Cutler is on fire! With Brandon Marshall, who had 18 receptions, 166 yards, and 1 TD against the Chargers, and Eddie Royal, who had 146 yards and 1 TD in his regular season debut, Jay Cutler has some amazing weapons to work with. Despite having the top ranked offense, the Broncos defense ranked near the bottom in every defensive category, which is …

So it was an average Sunday for me. I came out in the black, which was good, but I was just 1 game away from having a great Sunday betting on the NFL. I’m going to blame the rain on ruining the Steelers game for me. I guess that’s one reason to wait to place your bets right before the game when you know for certain what the weather conditions and player statuses will be. Let it be a lesson learned and let’s move on.

Tonight, the Dallas Cowboys are hosting the Philadelphia Eagles. The Cowboys came out as 7-point favorites, but the spread then dropped to Cowboys -6.5 after the betting public starting betting heavy on the underdog Eagles. I’m sure most of you are thinking Cowboys at home home on Monday Night is the way to go. Some of you might not be persuaded by the Eagles performance last week because it was, after all, the Rams. I just want to warn you of a few things before you decided to throw money down on the Cowboys. First, be warned that I am an Eagles fan.

Here is why you SHOULDN’T bet on the Cowboys tonight. The Eagles are 3-1 against the Cowboys in their last 4 games including a win in Dallas last season. The Eagles are great at getting pressure on Tony Romo and forcing him to make bad decisions with the ball. I expect the Eagles to get a few sacks and an INT off Romo tonight. The Eagles defense will make this a tight game. I’m not too worried about Terrell Owens. The Eagles have 4 Pro-Bowlers in their secondary (Asante Samuel, Brian Dawkins, Lito Sheppard, and Sheldon Brown). Asante Samuel will be on …

Overall, I moved up just 2 units this week. I hit the Packers for 8 units, but lost on the Steelers for 6 units, won the Giants for 3, lost the Saints for 3, won the Cardinals for 2, lost the 49ers/under parlay for 2. The Steelers outcome would have been different if it wasn’t for the rain and the Saints just blew the game in the 4th quarter. Here’s a bigger look at the games.

Wow, what a game the Packers/Lions game turned out to be. If you missed how it went down, the Packers jumped out to a 21-0 lead, took it 21-3 in the half, the Lions decided to play football in the 2nd half and were starting to make a comeback. The Lions then made it a 24-16 game. The Packers then gave up a safety after the punter was unable to catch the ball when they were pinned down at the 10. On the next drive Calvin Johnson came up with a huge TD to give the Packers a 25-24 lead. The Packers drove down field off a huge Greg Jennings reception and came out with a field goal to take the lead back, but it was only a 2-point lead. I needed to cover 3 points, so I was screaming at Jackson through my TV for dropping a pass that would have set up a 1st and goal. On the next drive, however, Kitna gave me a gift and there were plenty more to come. Kitna threw not one, not two, but three INTs in the final 5 minutes off the game that were returned for TDs. Thank you Jon Kita. Damn, it sucks to be a Lions fans. Why do they even watch …

Last week turned out to be a great week betting on the NFL. My top two games (Steelers and Cowboys) hit and most of my other plays worked out as well, which translated into moving up 12 units. This week my top two games will be the Packers and Steelers. The Packers are somehow only a 3-point favorite against the Lions, who are the worst defensive team in the NFL. I expect the Packers to put up at least 30 points and I can’t see the Lions getting more than 24 off this Packers D. I would think the spread on this game should be Packers -6.5 and -9 if the game were played in Green Bay, so I think this is a great play. I’m also big on the Steelers, which is the Sunday Night game. Big Ben has a sore shoulder and is listed as probable, but I think he’ll be fine and Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall should be able to run all over against the team that is 27th against the run based on last week’s performance and 27th against the run in 2007. The Browns offense struggled against the Cowboys last week and it should be the same story against a tough Pittsburgh D.

I’m putting 8 units on the Packers and 6 units on the Steelers. My other bets include 4 units on the Giants, 3 units on the Saints, 3 units on the Cardinals, and a 2 unit parlay with the 49ers moneyline and the under (pays 6:1).

Here are the previews for all of my week 2 games.

Good luck this Sunday!…

2010 NFL Week 2 Picks »

2009 NFL Week 2 Picks »

Last week turned out to be a great week. I ended up 12 units on my bets and my top 2 plays of the week worked out like a charm. I took the Steelers and Cowboys and they both dominated the game. There was no need to even sweat those ones out. This week, the games look harder, but after looking through the matchups, there are still a handful of games that I like. On to the NFL Week 2 betting analysis.

SPREADS TO TAKE:

GREEN BAY PACKERS -3 @ DETROIT LIONS

The Lions by far have the worst defense in the NFL. They gave up 34 points to the Falcons and allowed over 200 rushing yards to 1 player! Last season, the Falcons were ranked 23rd offensively and they put up 34 on the Lions; just imagine what the 2nd ranked offense from last year will do to them. The Lions were ranked dead last in yards allowed AND points allowed last season. Aaron Rodgers is the real deal. Last season the Packers defeated the Lions twice. The scores of those games: 34-13 and 37-26. I’m putting 6 units on the Packers -3. I love this game. I’m not worried about the Lions WRs either because the Packers have one of the best secondaries in the league. 96% of the money on the spread at sportsbook.com is on the Packers and is clearly the favorite game amongst bettor.

Prediction — Packers 35 – Lions 20

Pick Against the Spread: Packers -3 — Confidence 5/5
Pick Straight Up: Packers — Confidence 5/5

PITTSBURGH STEELERS -6.5 @ CLEVELAND BROWNS (SUNDAY NIGHT GAME)

I love the Steelers this year. I …

The first game went as planned with the Packers win, so that was 2 units under my belt. Despite leaving 10 points off the board (a 70+ yard TD by Donald Driver that was called back due to a dumb penalty and a blocked FG), they still came out with the win. What a regular season debut from Aaron Rodgers. The guy has a canon for an arm. The Packer’s front office made the right call: this guy is the real deal.

I made a bad call with the Raiders pick, but I only put 1 unit on them since I wasn’t too confident with them to begin with. The Broncos screwed me several times last year when I bet on them, which I had in my mind when making this call, and I was looking too much into the Broncos’ poor run defense (ranked 30th) and thought the Monday night/home team combo would be a safer play — it usually is for the Monday Night home dog. The Raiders still have their way to go and their secondary certainly doesn’t look as good as it does on paper. Cutler looked damn good — I’m certainly glad I picked him up in the 10th round of my fantasy draft. How about that Eddie Royal. I thought I had the fantasy win locked up and this guy puts up over 150 yards and 1 TD. Ouch. He may challenge DeSean Jackson and Matt Forte for rookie of the year.

Here’s my updated record:
— Straight Up: 11-5
— Against The Spread: 10-6
— My Betting Units: +12…