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NFL Week 2 Predictions, Picks Against the Spread

Posted by in NFL Picks on September 17th, 2009 | Comment »

Last week was a solid week.  I only gave out 2 games with a 4/5 confidence rating last week, which were the Minnesota Vikings and the Atlanta Falcons and they both covered pretty comfortably.  There were some surprises last week.  The Jets looks legit.  The Raiders didn’t suck as bad as we thought they would.  All of the games were extremely close with the spread, which is exactly what it was designed for.  There aren’t too many easy winners.  I was feeling it with the Vikings though and that set me up for a nice week.  Lets see what is on tap this week.

OAKLAND RAIDERS +3 @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Oh, so the Raiders don’t suck so bad after all.  They had a decent defense in decent offense.  They may even rank 16th in both categories this season.  The Chiefs put up 24 points on the Ravens, what?  7 of those came via a blocked punt in the end zone, so that really doesn’t count.  I think this game should be low scoring and back and forth with a few lead changes.  Odds are it comes down to a field goal, so I think you’re better suited taking the Raiders with the +3.  Under 38.5 looks interesting, but stands to be close to that number.

Prediction: Raiders 20 – Chiefs 17

Free Picks: Raiders +3 (Confidence: 2/5), Under 38.5 (Confidence: 2/5)

HOUSTON TEXANS @ TENNESSEE TITANS -6.5

Kerry Collins was pretty impressive last week against the Steelers on the road and the Titans ran the ball very well against a top 3 run defense.  Texans got pounded by the Jets ground game and passing game too.  Plus, the Titans have an extra 3 days rest — a huge advantage AND they’re at home.  Titans win by 10-14.

Prediction: Titans 24 – Texans 13

Free Pick: Titans -6.5 (Confidence: 4/5)

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -4 @ NEW YORK JETS

If this line came out the previous week, I’m sure 99% of the public would have jumped on the Patriots at -9.5.  The Patriots have some defensive issues, especially now that they’re missing first-round pick Jerod Mayo.  The Jets looked very, very good last week on the road.  This is a very tough game to call since both teams are sending mixed signals: the Patriots aren’t as good as anticipated, the Jets are much better than anticipated.  Under 46 would be my play in this one.  I expect a tight one.

Prediction: Patriots 24 – Jets 20

Free Pick: Under 46 (Confidence: 2/5)

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS -9.5

The Bengals could only muster 7 points against the lowly Broncos at home?  I didn’t get to see that game, so I don’t really know how that game played out.  I just know the Bengals got screwed on the last play of the game because of the good ol’ tip drill.  86% of the money is on the Packers to cover.  I see no reason for the Bengals to hang with the Packers in this one.  Packers cover the number, but I can potentially see a Bengals cover by a meaningless late 4th quarter score.

Prediction: Packers 27 – Bengals 16

Free Pick: Packers -9.5 (Confidence: 3/5)

MINNESOTA VIKINGS -10 @ DETROIT LIONS

You thought Stafford looked bad against the Saints defense?  Imagine what happens when he has to face a tough Vikings defense and has Jared Allen attacking him from his blind side.  The Lions are downright horrendous against the run, so Peterson is poised to have another monster day (150 yards, 3 TDs).  Vikings win in a blowout. However, I don’t want to get too cocking with the Vikings since last year they left several bettors scratching their heads when they played the Lions — Vikings won 20-16 and didn’t cover the 10.5 points they were favored by.  Even more odd was the 12-10 outcome when the game was played in Minnesota last season when the Vikings were favored by 13.

Prediction: Vikings 31 – Lions 10

Free Pick: Vikings -10 (Confidence: 4/5)

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

This one is a pick ’em.  Donovan McNabb is likely out.  As an Eagles fan myself, I’m confident with Kevin Kolb as the signal caller.  Last week the Eagles showed they have a top 5 defense since they forced something like 5 or 6 turnovers.  The Saints offense is nasty, so this one should see a lot of points and a lot of lead changes.  This one should have fans on the edge of their seat for 60 minutes.  The over 46.5 looks like the play to make here.  A 24-23 or 27-20 game puts this one in the money.  You could bank on both teams putting up over 20 points.  Drew Brees, Marques Colston, Reggie Bush, Brian Westbrook, DeSean Jackson — there are playmakers just all over the place.  Take the over.  You could also tease the over to 39.5 and add 7 points to whoever you like in this one, but I don’t think it’s wise to take either team in this one — it’s really a toss up.

Prediction: Eagles 27 – Saints 26

Free Pick: Over 46.5 (Confidence: 3/5)

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS -6.5

The Panthers have themselves some QB issues.  Delhomme was benched last game since the Eagles Sheldon Brown, Asante Samuel, and Akeem Jordan were his favorite receivers.  I love the Falcons this season, but the Panthers D should keep this one close and could put the Panthers in the money.  If last week wasn’t a disaster for the Panthers, this spread would likely be Falcons -3, but everyone has the Panthers getting killed fresh in their head. In the NFL, what happens the previous week has virtually no bearing in this game.  The game is 0-0 with 60 minutes to play and there’s no knowing how the game will play out.  I can guarantee you that the Panthers will not turn the ball over 6 times in this game.  I like the Falcons to win, I just don’t like the spread.  The Falcons likely win by 3-6.  I think that Panthers running game and defense will keep this game close.

Prediction: Falcons 23 – Panthers 17

Free Pick: Too close to call.  I want to take the Falcons spread, but I see a really tight game.

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS -9.5

The Rams got blanked by the Seahawks 28-0.  Ouch.  The Rams upset the Redskins last year when they played in D.C.  A lot of people didn’t see that one coming since the Redskins were red hot at the time.  The Redskins don’t really do it for me.  They didn’t look strong enough to be favored by 9.5 last week, but the Rams are really bad.  With a tough Washington defense, the Redskins should cover and the under 37 may also be the way to go, but that’s pretty low.  If the Rams couldn’t score against the Seahawks, they shouldn’t do much against a very good defense with the following: Haynesworth, Orakpo, McIntosh, Fletcher, Landry, DeAngelo Hall, and Carlos Rodgers.  The ‘Skins basically have 7 players that could potentially be Pro Bowlers on defense. Teaser of under 44, Redskins -2.5 looks good.

Prediction: Redskins 20 – Rams 6

Free Pick: Redskins -9.5 (Confidence: 3/5) Under 37 (Confidence: 2/5)

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS -3

What was wrong with the Cardinals last week?  They just came out completely flat.  Has Warner lost it?  I don’t know.  The Jaguars, on the other hand, looked impressive by holding the Colts to a mere 14 points at home.  The Jags offense couldn’t really get going though.  This is a game you pass on.  There are just too many questions looming before you can get a good read on these teams.  Jags have a tough defense, but a weak offense.  Cardinals are coming off a disappointing loss at home.  I’ll have to believe the Cardinals rebound, but also keep in mind the dreaded “west coast team, playing on the east at 1:00 syndrome.”  Last year, no west coast team was able to beat a team on the east at 1:00.

Prediction: Cardinals 20 – Jaguars 16

Free Pick: Cardinals +3 (Confidence: 2/5)

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ SAN FRANSISCO 49ERS

This one is a pick ’em and I’ll have to agree.  Both teams came out and looked impressive last week. This game is incredibly tough to call.  It should definitely be a close one.  I’m going to throw out a Swami pick where the numbers just don’t make any sense.  Edge goes to the home team.

Prediction: 49ers 22 – Seahawks 19

Free Pick: Pass on this one.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ BUFFALO BILLS -4.5

How about those Buffalo Bills.  Almost topping the Patriots at home on Monday Night.  Can they cover 4.5 against the Bucs?  Another tough one.  I’ll anticipate a tight game with a couple lead changes.  In a tight game, it’s always advantageous to have those points on your side.

Prediction: Bills 20 – Bucs 17

Free Pick: Bucs +4.5 (Confidence: 3/5)

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ DENVER BRONCOS -3

Another game where you can expect anything to happen.  I wouldn’t be surprised if this game ended by the score of 9-6 or 34-31.  I’ll just skip this one altogether.  Not even worth giving a prediction for.

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -3

6/8 “experts” at Covers.com are picking the Ravens and 60% of the fan consensus is on them.  82% of the money is taking the Ravens to cover.  I’ll take the side of the public, but I’m not willing to bet my money against the Chargers at home.

Prediction: Ravens 17 – Chargers 16

Free Pick: Ravens +3 (Confidence: 2/5)

PITTSBURGH STEELRS -3 @ CHICAGO BEARS

I really like the Steelers here.  97% of the money is taking the Steelers to cover.  With Urlacher out, the Bears defense is just not the same.  You could also same for the Steelers who are without Troy Polamalu.  9/10 experts at Covers.com like the Steelers.  This looks like a great game to take.

Prediction: Steelers 20 – Bears 13

Free Pick: Steelers -3 (Confidence: 4/5)

NEW YORK GIANTS @ DALLAS COWBOYS -2.5

An excellent NFC East matchup for Sunday Night Football.  I like the Cowboys, but was surprised to find that 64% of the money is on the Giants to cover.  6/8 Covers.com experts like the Cowoys though.  I thought the loss of T.O. would really stall the Cowboys offense, but they didn’t show any signs of taking a step back last Sunday — they rolled over the Bucs, who aren’t a joke on defense. The Giants D keeps this game close, but the Cowboys come out on top in the end.

Prediction: Cowboys 24 – Giants 20

Free Pick: Cowboys -2.5 (Confidence 3/5)

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -4.5 @ MIAMI DOLPHINS

Who is the idiot that picked this game for MNF?  The Dolphins, seriously?  You couldn’t take Eagles/Saints, Falcons/Panthers, Chargers/Ravens, Jets/Patriots?  I would even take Texans/Titans.  Oh well.  I am liking the Colts, but with Anthony Gonzalez out, Manning has one less offensive weapon to work with.  Colts should still cover in what is a closer game than most people expect seeing that 92% of the money is on the Colts, 9/14 experts like ’em, and 73% of the consensus picks are on them.

Prediction: Colts 20 – Dolphins 13

Free Pick: Colts -4.5 (Confidence 3/5)



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