Football Picks Against the Spread

RUTGERS SCARLETT KNIGHTS -3 @ LOUISVILLE CARDINALS

We start football today at 11:00 and the game that I’ve been eying up all week is Rutgers -3. The spread is so low, it made me question whether this is a trap game. The spread is low because their stud WR Tim Brown is questionable and their kicker is also out (could affect some field goals and field position, which is kind of a big deal).

Rutgers also lost last week to a weak Syracuse team 31-13. As Lucky Lester likes to point out, the theme of the year is that solid teams usually bounce back after a poor performance.  I have faith in Tom Savage and that Rutgers running attack against a 4-7 team that gives up an average of 25.5 PPG and scores just 18.5 PPG.

Rutgers blanked South Florida 31-0 prior to the Syracuse loss, they beat a solid UCONN team, they beat up on Maryland, and they hung in their with #10 Pittsburgh.  Louisville isn’t even close to good.  They haven’t beaten any quality teams and their sole division win comes by a 10-9 victory over Syracuse. The Louisville D has a hard time stopping anyone.  They gave up 34 to South Florida, 41 to Cincinnatti, 35 to Pittsburgh, and 38 to UCONN.  Their offense hasn’t really shown up either.

If WR Tim Brown is out, I expect this one to be fairly close throughout the game, but I’m on board with Rutgers.  I would bank on a rebound by Rutgers and I look to take advantage of a low spread.

Prediction: Rutgers 24 – Louisville 17

Free Pick: Rutgers -3 (Confidence: 2.5/5) (W)…

Happy Thanksgiving Everyone!

We hope we made your Thanksgiving just a little bit better with some big Turkey Day wins.

We gave out two THANKSGIVING SPECIALS that both hit. The first special was a 7-point teaser of Packers -3.5 and Cowboys -6.5, which hit with ease. We also won both of those games individually with teasers we gave out that had the spread coupled with the over/under.  The Packers -3.5 hit with the Over 40.5 and Under 54.5, which I flip-flopped on due to the uncertainty of Calvin Johnson’s status — I recommended the over 40.5 if Johnson was active, but under 54.5 if he was inactive.  In the end, it didn’t matter since the total was right in the middle at 46.  I also recommended Cowboys -6.5 (or Raiders +20.5) with the under 47.5.  That was another easy hit no matter which side you decided to play it from.

If you instead played the spreads straight up, there were no worries there as both the Packers and Cowboys got the easy cover, although I was worried after GB fumbled the first kickoff of the game that led to a quick 7 points by the Lions.

I actually played those games with a 4-way teaser (2-to-1 odds) with GB -3.5, DAL -6.5, and unders on both games, so I was pretty pumped about that!

Hopefully, you took notice of last night’s update on the Broncos vs. Giants game.  I was onboard with the Giants, but put a “buyer beware” notice to avoid the Giants game due a feeling that the Broncos are “due for a win” along with the road trip, on a short week, with a list of injuries that I didn’t feel very good about.

Secondly, if you …

Overall Profit 1.3 units

Back on track last week, going 3-2 for 0.8 units of profit. Really like a few games this week, starting with play on Tuesday night. I am also releasing my fourth play of the year this week on Auburn.

1.) Ball State at Western Michigan (-7) FIRST HALF for 1 unit. L for 1.1 units

2.) GAME OF THE YEAR RELEASE #4: Alabama at Auburn (+10.5) for 2 units.  There are more than several reasons to love Auburn in this spot besides the fact that I am saying they will cover. First, one of the best bets so far this year in both college and the nfl is home dogs off a bye week. Auburn has been a totally different ball club at home this year. They are 6-1 straight up and 4-2 ATS at home this year. Their defense has not been the Auburn defense of old, but this Bama squad’s offense is poor. They have looked good against very weak teams, but not very good against average defenses. If there was ever a good spot for this Auburn defense to shine it would be here. This also sets up as a trap game for Alabama. Everyone is assuming they are playing Florida in the SEC Championship game to determine who plays for the National Title. Therefore, this is any easy look-ahead game for Bama. I really like this spot for Auburn and think they have a legitimate shot to pull the upset. Game of the Year Winner #3. W for 2 units. (I am 3-1 on GOY releases!)

3.) THANKSGIVING SPECIAL: Texas at Texas A&M (+21) for 1 unit. W for 1 unit.

4.) North Carolina at NC State (+6.5) for 1 unit. …

Back-to-back-to-back-to-back SUNDAY & MONDAY NIGHT winners. Yes I will boast about a 4-0 record in the past 2 weeks in the prime-time games. Even after bad starts and let’s be honest here, 5-8 in the last two week for the top picks is not what I’m shooting for, but we kept you in the game and hopefully made up some ground with our prime-time picks.

All it would have taken is 2 games to go our way to post a winning record and I will throw out 2 injuries to “justify” or “excuse” my poor record: QB Kyle Orton’s injury last week, which cost us the game against the Redskins and QB Kurt Warner’s injury when the Cardinals were beating the Rams 21-3, but then failed to cover by a mere point when Leinart scored 0 2nd-half points.  I will also consider the Steelers loss complete BS due to “luck.”

However, all was not melancholy in the end! We picked the Eagles and Titans and got two big wins after a less than ideal start to our Sunday.  We did it the previous week with the Patriots/Ravens double-whammy and we did it again this week.

We’ve battled back and made up a ton of ground going into Week 12.

Why do the statistical analysis when a kickoff return, a turnover, or even a crucial penalty call will determine the outcomes of at least 67% of these games against the spread. Let’s just roll with it from the gut.  So now I give you a more condensed version of our weekly picks without all the garbage and some “fearless” predictions.  I also throw out about a half-dozen teasers that I like more than the actual spreads.

IT’S TEASER WEEKEND!

GREEN BAY …

I’ll try to be direct here. It was another bad week. Our top 5 picks went 2-3 and the 3 other plays in the “picks to consider” category went 1-2. Before people decide to start sending hateful comments on how we “suck”, I just wanted to make a few points. Sometimes the NFL gets downright silly and simply unpredictable.

First point: I was 1 point away from having a winning record for the top 5 picks. The Cardinals were up 21-3 at the half. Now if you took the first-half line, you were in great shape. I do not know how they managed to put up 0 points in the 2nd half, but they did, and they won the game 21-13. With the spread set at -9, they didn’t cover by a single point. Now if I would have came out last week and said take the Rams +9, I would have been called a fool.

Second point: I was 1/2 of a point away from having a winning record for the picks in the “spreads to consider” category. The Packers had a 23-3 lead as well, but let the 49ers get a few scores and won by the score of 30-24. With the spread at 6.5, they lost by a half point. Now if I said take the 49ers +6.5 after the they scored 10 points after producing 5 turnovers from the week before, I would have been called a fool and would be laughed at.

Third point: The Steelers pick didn’t work out because of bullshit. They gave up a kickoff return for a TD on the first play of the game, which basically makes the spread Steelers -17 from the get go. Roethlisberger then throws an interception …

Overall Profit 0.5 units.

Last week we suffered several tough losses, especially with Fresno State as for someone reason they must have thought they only had to score 14 points to win. The final weeks of the college football season are the most difficult as several more key factors come in to play including: bowl eligilbility, coachs on the hot seat, and guys who are already preparing for life after football, just to name a few. We get back on track with the Thursday night game.

1) Colorado vs Oklahoma State (-17) for 1 unit. (Thursday Night). Important to note that OSU still has an outside chance at playing in a BCS game. They need every win they can get and running up the score on this Colorado team is a good place to start. Colorado can’t wait for the season to be over as this has been one of the most disappointing years in school history. You really have to lean towards home teams playing for something verse road teams playing for absolutely nothing. Tough to see Colorado even staying close. My power ratings have OSU favored by 20. Lay the 17.

2) Arkansas State vs Middle Tennessee State (-11) for 1 unit.

3) Virginia at Clemson (-13) First Half for 1 unit

4) Arizona State at UCLA (-4) for 1 unit

5) LSU (+4) at Mississippi for 1 unit

Other games will be posted later.…

We are back with our NFL Week 11 Picks Against the Spread.  Last week was rough.  The underdogs finally had their day.  Our top 8 picks went 3-5 and the games that I personally played went 3-3.  I was able to get back in the game with back-to-back winners in the Sunday Night and Monday Night games, which were both listed in my top 8 picks.  I apologize for the poor start, but we came back with the solid finish to the week.  We’ve had a tremendous amount of success in the NFL this season.  In the past three weeks, our top picks have a 14-4 (77.77%) record.  That amount of success is unprecedented, so get off my case about 1 bad week.  This week I seek to prove all the haters wrong.  I’m sticking to my guns and will continue to bet against teams like the Rams, Browns, Raiders, Bucs, and Chiefs, who are facing solid teams with the exception of the Lions (Cardinals, Lions, Bengals, Saints, and Steelers respectively).  Top spreads ranked by strength are listed at the bottom.  As you can tell, I did more due diligence on each game.  I packed in a ton of analysis into each game and kept my eye on the injury reports.

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS -3

Most people see this matchup and want to jump on the Dolphins +3.  First lesson in sports betting, well maybe not the first, but one of the top 5: always check the injury reports!  Ronnie Brown is out in this game.  I provide links to resources for you to use that I use before picking my games.  Look at the NFL Information section and click the NFL Injury Report link or visit …