Football Picks Against the Spread

I should have done this way earlier, but it hasn’t come to my mind until now.  There’s still 8 more weeks in the season, so this can still be fun.  I created  Pick ‘Em against the spread league on Yahoo!  Now our members can create a team and enter their picks to see how they fair against me and our other readers.  There’s a link on the right to access the league, which is located above the beer mug.  Cheers!

Feel free to join the league.  Here is the information:

League Homepage: http://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/75814

Register Here: http://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/register/joingroup

League ID: 75814

League Password: thepassrush

Thanks to our readers who already signed up already.  Don’t forget to enter your picks before the games start.…

Vegas Martin’s top 6 NFL plays from week 9 went 4-2 against the spread this past weekend, so it’s good that we ended up on the winning side yet again.  That is now 3-straight winning weeks and our last 4/5 weeks have been positive. Unfortunately, the top 2 plays didn’t pan out, but we made up all that ground and then some when we found 2 winners at the 4:00 time slot and got another easy win on Monday night with the Steelers over the Broncos pick.

I hope anyone who took a hit on the Packers or Ravens picks boldly followed me into the 4:00 games and the Monday Night game to take back whatever was ours for the taking. New rule, never bet against a home underdog off the bye week. I have been preaching about that all season long, but failed to take my own advice. I felt the Packers over the Bucs and Ravens over the Bengals were both strong plays despite that significant factor to their disadvantage, but we learned the hard way and will not make that mistake again.

Don’t forget to check out Brandon’s week 11 college picks and to sign up for our Yahoo pick ’em league.

On to the week 10 NFL action to find out where we can make the easy money betting against the spread.

CHICAGO BEARS @ SAN FRANSISCO 49ERS -3

We start getting into Thursday Night football, so this is the first matchup of the week.  I don’t really like it.  Both teams have been hard to figure out this season.  Both teams were hugely disappointing last week and I advised our readers to pass on the Bears/Cardinals and 49ers/Titans game for exactly those reasons.  I …

Overall Profit 3.9 units (updated 11/11)

We start the week early again with a game on Tuesday night. We hit last Tuesday with Bowling Green over Buffalo, so lets keep our strong Tuesday night plays rolling.

1) Ohio at Buffalo (-1.5) This Buffalo team plays hard every single time they take the field. Ohio was a great play early in the season, but are simply not playing the type of ball they once were. Ohio faces an angry Buffalo squad after their loss from a week ago to Bowling Green. Ohio has also been plagued by the injury bug and are probably looking at starting their 3rd string QB tonight. If Buffalo can establish the run this game will be over at halftime. Lay the points with Buffalo.

Ohio 27 Buffalo 24 L for 1.1 units

GAME OF THE YEAR #3: FRESNO STATE (+7) at Nevada for 2 units

This line simply blows me away. I have Fresno State as a 9 point favorite!! Strength of schedule alone makes Fresno State a strong play. Just look at who Fresno State has played and how they faired in those games: on the road in Wisconsin lose in the final seconds, lose at home in a competitive match with Boise State, play Cincinnati tough to the final quarter, and then have won 5 straight, including three road wins. Nevada also post three early loses, but against teams not nearly as strong as what Fresno faced: blowout loss on the road to Notre Dame, a terrible loss to Colorado State on the road (who by the way has lost 7 straight games, including a loss to UNLV, who Nevada beat by 35), and a loss at home to a weak Missouri squad. Both …

Overall Profit 5 units

We gave back a few units, but are still on the plus side of things. I have keyed one game for this weekend that I believe may be the absolute biggest play of the year. I will have it posted as soon as I confirm all the numbers and analysis.

College Basketball has started and I cannot be more excited. I told you before it is where I have found the most success, in terms of money made. Last year I was posting my plays on another site under SMART BET and received roughly 500 hits a day. Last night I tipped things off by going 2-0 with a first half and game side play on Ohio State. There are more college games beginning on Wednesday.

Thanks for all the comments.

I am analyzing tonight’s game between Ohio and Buffalo and will post a play if I find something I really like.…

Question: I need some help deciding which WR to start and sit and week 9.

I can start 3 of these players and this is for a PPR league. Here are my receivers.

Wes Welker – He’s a lock to start
Nate Burleson vs. DET
Steve Smith (NY) vs. SD
Dwayne Bowe vs. JAX

Which player do I sit, Burleson, Smith, or Bowe?

Best answer:

Burelson has better numbers than T.J. Houshmanzadeh right now so I would start him against Detroit. I know the Giants have been struggling lately, but they should get back on track against San Diego. I would start Steve Smith, who is still one of the most targeted receivers in the NFL.

Add your own answer in the comments!…

Question: Which RB should I start in week 8 on the fantasy football team?

Which RB should I start this week?

Ricky Williams @ NYJ
Ryan Grant vs. MIN
Knowshon Moreno @ BAL

Answer:

Moreno is splitting carries and will face one of the best run defenses in the league so I would bench Moreno. Minnesota is also a strong run defense, so I don’t like starting Ryan Grant. I like Ricky William against the Jets since the Dolphins will bring the wildcat with Ronnie Brown and Williams should get his yards. Even though Williams is only getting about 15 touches a game, he is putting up great numbers.

Give your answer to this question below!…

While Brandon is releasing information that makes spreads move by 3 points, Vegas Martin is scouring the week 9 NFL spreads to find where the easy money can be made.  Last week, Vegas’s top 4 plays scored a 3-1 record.  We lost a little on the Chargers, but we knew it could be difficult to cover 16.5 and were warned by reader TGIS about his skepticism of the play.  In all honesty, I was fully expecting the Raiders to put 6 on the board and the Chargers to get a minimum of 24, but sometimes the Chargers just don’t give give a f@#% about beating the pants off a crappy team like the Raiders.  Accordingly, I hedged my bets with plays on the Cowboys, Texans, and Bears, which all hit with relative ease.

If you also read the comments, you hopefully cashed in on the NO/ATL over 55.5 or my teaser of Saints -5.5 or Falcons +18.5 and the over 49.  That’s why you always have to read the comments for updated info on the game.  Feel free to ask me questions on spreads, more feedback on certain games, or whatever is on your mind, and I will always respond, so use the comments section to your advantage.

Don’t forget to check out Brandon’s Week 10 College Football picks.

Now let’s get down to the nitty gritty.

UPDATE: I should have listened to my own advice.  You keep hearing me talking about “home teams off the bye week.”  Well, two of them won and I picked against them.  To my surprise and to everyone’s, not only did the Bucs get their first win of the season against the Packers, but the Bengals also defeated the Ravens.  At least we …